Category Archives: Outlook

2018 U.S. & World Population

.. Welcome to 2018 .. how the U.S. and world are changing …

The Census Bureau estimates the U.S. population is 326,971,407 as of January 1, 2018. This represents an increase of 2,314,238, or 0.71 percent, from New Year’s Day 2017. Since Census Day (April 1) 2010, the population has grown by 18,225,587, or 5.90 percent.

In January 2018, the U.S. is expected to experience one birth every 8 seconds and one death every 10 seconds. Meanwhile, net international migration is expected to add one person to the U.S. population every 29 seconds. The combination of births, deaths and net international migration will increase the U.S. population by one person every 18 seconds.

The world population on January 1, 2018 is estimated to be 7,444,443,881. The world has experienced a population increase of 78,521,283, or 1.07 percent, from New Year’s Day 2017. During January 2018, 4.3 births and 1.8 deaths are expected worldwide every second.

Patterns of Population Change by State, 2010-2017
The following graphic shows patterns of percent population change from 2010 to 2017. Use the associated GIS project to examine different years or subject matter items. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

How the U.S. Population is Changing
The following graphic shows how the population of the U.S. has changed from 2010 to 2017 and how the population might change 2018 through 2020. Click graphic for large view. The population is as of July 1 for each year. The components of change (birth, deaths and migration) are for the period July 1 through June 30 for that year.

Population for each year is computed by the population identity equation:
  P[t]=P[t-1] + B[t,t-1] -D[t,t-1] + M[t,t-1]
Viewing the larger image, see how each of the components of change are impacting the total population and population change.
… see more detail about these data for the U.S. and by state at http://proximityone.com/states2017.htm.

More About Population Trends, Patterns and Characteristics
See more about how population dynamics; use the interactive tables in these sections:
  • School Districts — http://proximityone.com/sdtrends.htm
  • Cities — http://proximityone.com/places2016.htm
  • Counties — http://proximityone.com/countytrends2016.htm
  • Metros — http://proximityone.com/metrotrends2016.htm
  • States — http://proximityone.com/states2017.htm

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

TractWatch — Examining Small Area Change

Understanding the demographic-economic landscape for small area geography and how it is changing is vital for many stakeholders. Businesses and other organizations need to know how their market/service areas are changing … getting answers to questions like knowing about recent trends, where we are now and the how/where/how much things might change in the future.

Examining Tract Change
The following view shows census tracts (black boundary) located in the northeast Houston, TX area. Tracts are labeled with 2017 population estimates and percent population change from 2010 to 2017. Tract geography and characteristics are shown in context of three cities/places — Houston (orange cross-hatch), Humble (blue) and Atascocita CDP (green). It is easy to see what census tracts intersect with what cities and where. The pointer/hand is located in census tract 48-201-240902, partly intersecting with Humble city. The tract 2017 population of 12,984 reflects an increase of 10.4% since 2010. The dark brown bold boundary at the top of this tract is the Harris County, TX boundary.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
.. create views like this for any area in the U.S.; add your own data.

TractWatch tells us which tracts in a region of interest changed during the past year based on quarterly observable data with only a one quarter lag.

Census Tracts & TractWatch
TractWatch is a new tool/service focused on examining recent demographic-business change for each census tract. These approximate 74,000 geographic areas cover the U.S. wall-to-wall and averaged 4,000 population as of Census 2010. Tracts have a generally stable geography between decennial censuses and are coterminous with county boundaries. Tracts cover the U.S. with more than a 2-to-1 ratio compared to ZIP code areas (see tract-ZIP relationship table).

Integrated with Situation & Outlook
TractWatch insights are developed through the use of the ProximityOne Situation & Outlook (S&O) database and information system — a part of S&O demographic-economic estimates and projections developed and updated annually. The 2017 vintage tract estimates and projections (annual data) cover the period 2010 through 2022 (5-year projection).

TractWatch – Monitoring Change
As a part of the S&O annual estimates and projections development, a range of measures are updated quarterly at the census tract level. Quarterly data are developed that include population, housing units, vacant units, households and business establishments.

There is only a one-quarter lag in the availability of observable census tract data. For example, observable 2017Q1 data can be added to the S&O database in July 2017. Data are analyzed and converted into a TractWatch national dataset.

Situation & Outlook Reports
The Situation & Outlook Reports (S&O Reports) are updated weekly, for the U.S. and each county, metro and state. TractWatch is a part of the “Recent Change and Outlook” S&O Report section and updated quarterly. See schedule of updates the shows when TractWatch is updated.

The S&O Reports (metro and county) Recent Change and Outlook section includes a list of census tracts which have shown significant change over the past year for that geography. A table of typically 10-to-25 key tracts are listed in a table with selected demographic-business change attributes.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Census 2020 LUCA Program and You

.. what would be the financial impact of a one-percent understatement in the Census 2020 population count? Many political districts are drawn based upon population change and shifts, and allocations of government funding and services are made based upon official population data. Consider this one specific example. For each one-percent of the Atlanta MSA population missed in Census 2020, potentially due to less than fully accurate address and location data, the financial impact could be on the order of $414 million per year. How and why? At margin, each person not counted in the decennial census results in a per capita disposable income loss for the area in the magnitude of $5,494 in 2000, and $6,770 per person in 2020. 61,100 people undercounted times $6,770 yields $414 million.

This section is about the Censue 2020 Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA) program and how it might impact the reduction in undercount .. and make the data more accurate for wide-ranging needs and uses. Read on for details about the LUCA program.

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA
The Atlanta metro shown with black bold boundary. More about this metro.

– View developed with CV XE GIS software.
– Click graphic to view patterns of neighborhood economic prosperity.

Financial Impact Details … the 2015 per capita current transfer payments (PCTP) in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta MSA were $6,132, up from $5,494 in 2010. The PCTP figure in 2020 may be $6,770. For each one-percent of the Atlanta MSA population (61,100 people) missed in Census 2020, potentially due to less than fully accurate address and location data, the financial impact could be in the order of $414 million (61,100 x $6,770) per year as of Census 2020.  $414 million per year based on the 2020 population and PCTP.

Financial Impact in Your Areas of Interest
Estimate the financial impact in your areas of interest. Get the 2010 and 2015 population and PCTP data from the REIS Interactive Table for any county or state.  Compute the 2020 population and PCTP values, potential undercount to determine the financial impact on an area of interest

Census 2020 LUCA Overview
The Census 2020 LUCA program is an initiative of the Census Bureau, partnering with thousands of state and local governments across the U.S. At the core of this program, Census provides address list data to communities; those communities compare those data with their own data and provide address/geographic updates back to the Census Bureau.  The updated address and geographic data are integrated into the TIGER/Line files  — geographic backbone for collecting and tabulating the Census results. This important MAF/TIGER address-plus update program will help insure improved accuracy for Census 2020. LUCA is a geographic data development program engaging local communities across the U.S.

ProximityOne works with local areas to improve the TIGER/Line files leading up to Census 2020. Using the CV XE GIS software and specialized expertise, we helped hundreds of governmental units, including all of the State of Georgia, improve the coverage and content of the TIGER/Line files and thus the accuracy and completeness of Census 2010.

The Census 2020 LUCA program is starting now in 2016.  See the full schedule and related details in the LUCA Web section.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Regional Economic Information System: Annual Updates

.. which counties are experiencing the fastest economic growth? by what economic component? what does this look like on a per capita level?

.. access & analyze economic characteristics and patterns by county and state .. annual time series 1969 through 2015 with projections.  Personal income is the income available to persons for consumption expenditures, taxes, interest payments, transfer payments to governments and the rest of the world, or for saving. Use the interactive table to examine characteristics of counties and regions of interest. The table provides access to 31 personal income related summary measures. These data are a selection of a broader set of annual time series data from the Regional Economic Information System (REIS). REIS is a part of the ProximityOne State & Regional Income & Product Accounts (SRIPA) and Situation & Outlook (S&O) featuring current (2016) estimates and demographic-economic projections. Go to table.

Visual Analysis of Per Capita Personal Income Patterns
The following map shows the Houston metro (view profile) with bold brown boundary. Counties are labeled with county name and 2014 per capita personal income.

Click graphic for larger view. View developed with CV XE GIS software.

Per Capita Personal Income Change 2008-2014 by County
.. relative to U.S 2008-2014 change

Click graphic for larger view. View developed with CV XE GIS software.

Interactive Analysis – County or State Profiles
The following graphic illustrate use of the interactive table to view an economic profile for Harris County, TX. Use the table to examine characteristics of any county or state. Click graphic for larger view.

Interactive Analysis
– comparing per capita personal income across counties
The next graphics illustrates use of the interactive table to rank/compare per capita personal income across counties. Rank/compare states. Choose any of the economic profile items. Click graphic for larger view.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Housing Price Index by 5-Digit ZIP Code

.. tools to examine housing prices by 5-digit ZIP code and how they are changing .. of the 17,931 5-digit ZIP codes tabulated, 8,074 experienced a decrease in housing value during the period 2010 to 2015. At the same time, 8,672 ZIP code areas experienced an increase in housing value. Housing prices increased for most ZIP codes from 2014 to 2014.  Find out more about housing prices and trends for ZIP codes of interest using tools described here. These data are based on experimental estimates of the Housing Price Index (HPI) by 5-digit ZIP code based in part on home sales price data from Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-acquired mortgages. See more about these data.

• Use the interactive table to view, rank, compare the HPI for all 5-digit ZIP code areas tabulated.
• Use GIS tools described here to develop thematic pattern maps; add your own data & geography, select different HPI measures or criteria; zoom to different geographic extents, label and modify colors as desired.

Gaining Insights in Housing Prices, Conditions & Markets
  .. Characteristics, Patterns & Trends
  .. join in .. one hour web session — overview & connectivity details

Patterns of Housing Value Change by ZIP Code: 2010-15
The following graphic shows patterns of housing value appreciation by ZIP Code: 2010-15 for the Houston metro (bold brown boundary). The color patterns/intervals are shown in the inset legend. Data are not available, using the criteria applied (2000 base year), for areas not colored In the larger view (click graphic), ZIP codes are labeled with HPI percent change from 2010 to 2015. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser to full window for best quality view. Use the GIS tools described here to develop thematic pattern maps for a range of data and criteria.

.. view developed using the CV XE GIS software.
.. click map for larger view and details.

Additional views:
Atlanta area
New York City area
Washington, DC area
Los Angeles area

Examining Recent Trends; Current Estimates & Projections
The interactive table presents annual HPI data 2010 through 2015. A much larger set of these ZIP codes show a negative change between 2010 and 2015 compared to the one year change 2014-2015; The data generally show more ZIP codes experiencing housing value appreciation 2014-2015 compared to the longer period 2010 to 2015. These trends underscore the importance of having more recent data for use in analysis, planning and decision-making. The next update based on transaction data will be May 2017 or later.

ProximityOne uses the HPI transaction data with other data to develop HPI current estimates (2016) and annual projections to 2021 with quarterly updates as a part of the Regional Demographic-Economic Modeling System (RDEMS). Experimental county-up (metro, state, U.S.) and sub-county estimates and projections are planned for the fall 2016 quarterly update. The model based estimates and projections include the number of units by type and value that are added to the housing stock used to compute a variation of the HPI.

Housing Price Index by 5-Digit ZIP Code: 2010-2015
  — Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to examine the Housing Price Index (HPI) by 5-digit ZIP code. The following graphic illustrates use of the table to show the 10 ZIP codes experiencing the largest percentage increase in the HPI from 2014 to 2015. Click graphic for larger view. Examine cities or ZIP code ranges of interest using tools below the table.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Real Gross Domestic Product by State & Area

… tools to access and analyze GDP patterns and trends … Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. This section provides access to annual GDP estimates for the period 2010 through 2015 and tools to analyze these data. The 2015 data are the latest estimates as of June 2016 (about these data). This section provides data and tools focused on the U.S. and states. In September 2016, this section updates to include the new 2015 estimates of metropolitan area GDP and revised historical updates. Follow this blog to receive updates. See the related Web section for more details about topics covered in this post.

Patterns of Per Capita Real GDP & Percent Change by State
The following graphic shows patterns of the 2015 per capita real GDP by state. The color patterns/intervals are shown in the inset legend. In the larger view (click graphic), states are labeled with 2015 per capita real GDP (white label) and percent change in per capita real GDP, 2010-2015. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser to full window for best quality view. The larger view shows a mini-profile for Texas. Use the GIS tools described below to develop thematic pattern map using any combination of these items from 2000 forward.

.. view developed using the CV XE GIS software.
.. click map for larger view and details.

Importance
GDP is an important part of planning, management and decision-making in the private and public sectors. It is watched closely by all stakeholders as to how the economy is trending. By adjusting current dollar GDP to constant dollar GDP, we can better examine the trends and patterns by removing inflation from the measures. By examining GDP at the metro and sub-state area, businesses and policy-makers can better determine GDP patterns on a regional basis. Regional analysis of GDP is very important as magnitude and change vary widely. By examining the size and trends of regional real GDP on a per capita basis, we are better able to examine patterns and trends at the individual level.

Modeling, Projections & Access/Analysis/Interpretive Tools
GDP is an important part of the ProximityOne Regional Demographic-Economic Modeling System (RDEMS). The RDEMS model specifies cause and effect relationships with GDP and GDP components and other data to develop current estimates and projections.

Use these tools to access/analyze GDP characteristics and patterns:
• interactive table – access in related Web section
• analyzing patterns using GIS resources – see details in related Web ection
• RDEMS database access
.. illustrative example of GDP patterns in context with other measures
.. Texas briefing notes (see notes “Texas per capita real GDP” on that page)
.. Access briefing notes for any state

Interactive Table
Use the interactive table below to examine per capita real GDP by state in context of other states and the U.S. This table expands to include metros in September 2016. The content of the table also expands to include GDP sectors and components

Per Capita Real Gross Domestic Product by State & Area
— 2000-2015
— interactive table
The following graphic shows states ranked on percent change in per capita real GDP. Click graphic for larger view. Use the interactive table to view rankings of interest. Export the data for further analysis.

Analyzing GDP using GIS Resources
— requires Windows computer with Internet connection
1. Install the ProximityOne CV XE GIS
… run the CV XE GIS installer
… take all defaults during installation
2. Download the GDP GIS project fileset
… requires ProximityOne User Group ID (join now)
… unzip GDP GIS project files to local folder c:\gdp
3. Open the c:\gdp\us1gdp.gis project
… after completing the above steps, click File>Open>Dialog
… open the file named c:\gdp\us1gdp.gis
4. Done. The start-up view is shown at top of this section.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Metro Situation & Outlook Reports Updated

Regional Demographic-Economic Modeling System (RDEMS) county table links are now embedded in Metro Situation & Outlook (S&O) Reports. Easily access the RDEMS county demographic-economic tables for metros of interest.

Use this link to access the Metro S&O Reports:
http://proximityone.com/metro_reports.htm
… click link in the “Code” column to access a specific metro.

… selected metros …
Atlanta .. Boston .. Charlotte .. Chicago .. Dallas .. Denver .. Los Angeles .. Honolulu .. Houston .. Miami .. Minneapolis .. New York .. Philadelphia .. Phoenix .. San Diego .. San Francisco .. Seattle .. Washington

All metros are available.

Join in … join us in the Data Analytics Lab sessions to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.