Category Archives: Situation & Outlook

Business Establishment Characteristics by County

.. what are the number and types of businesses underlying county economies of interest? What is the employment size by type of business establishment? What scope of wages, earnings do they contribute? Learn more here.

The pandemic impact on businesses remains in flux .. this post tools and data that can be used to examine pre-pandemic business establishments and employment pattern characteristics by county. By examining pre-pandemic conditions, we can better assess the impact of how and why business, demographic and economic change and impact as we move forward. The magnitude and duration of the impact on businesses will vary by community/area and become more measurable in the months ahead. The “How & Where of Business Establishment/Employment Change” will be updated later in 2020. See related, more detailed web section. See related section focused business establishments by ZIP code.

Where Things are Made by County
The following graphic shows patterns of the number of manufacturing establishments (NAICS 31) by county for the U.S. 48 contiguous states. Inset legend in map view shows number of establishments by interval/color. View/examine all U.S. states and areas using the related GIS project. Create custom maps similar to this view for your regions of interest depicting establishments, employment or payroll for your type of business selection(s). Click graphic for larger view with more detail; expand browser window for best quality view.

– view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.

The above view shows patterns for only one type of business. Data are tabulated more than 2,000 NAICS/type of business codes. These data may be examined by county using the interactive table. Use the GIS tools and related GIS project to develop variations of the views shown here.

Using the Interactive Table
The 10 largest counties based on the number of manufacturing establishments are shown in the static graphic below. Click for larger view.

Use the interactive table to dynamically create similar rankings on employment size or payroll. Set a query for a county, metro or state of interest.

Updates
These data update in June 2020. Follow the blog (click button at upper right) to receive updates.

Learn more — Join us in the Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Patterns of Income in America’s Largest Cities

The retreat in personal and household income resulting from the pandemic will be historic and substantial. How long term? Which cities of what size and location will be affected the most? We start to study patterns and trends as new data become available in the next several weeks.

America’s largest 629 cities accounted for a group population of 121,228,560, or 37.1%, of the total U.S. population (327,167,434) in 2018. All of these cities are in Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). With contiguous cities and places, these urban areas account for more than 80% of the U.S. population. These cities, each with 65,000 population or more, are shown as markers in the thematic pattern view below. See more about cities/places and city/place 2010-2018 demographic trends.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity: America’s Largest Cities
– cities with 2018 population 65,000+ shown as markers
– markers show level of 2018 median household income
– data used to develop this veiw were extracted using GeoFinder.
– click map for larger view; expand browser to full screen for best quality view.

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.

Top 25 Largest Cities based on Median Household Income

About America’s Largest Cities & Economic Characteristics
The set of the 629 America’s largest cities is based on data from the 2018 American Community Survey 1-year estimates (ACS 2018). ACS 2018 1-year estimates, by design, provide data only for areas 65,000 population or more. The ACS 2018 data are the only source of income and related economic data for national scope each/all cities/places (29,853) on an annual and more recent basis. These data will update with 2019 estimates in September 2020. ACS-based data reflecting the impact of the pandemic will not be available until September 2021.

Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Analyzing Patterns of COVID-19

.. as COVID-19 impacts our demographics, economy and way of life, we look for answers about where we are and what lies ahead.  Here we review data on COVID-19 incidence and tools to analyze those data. In the coming days, weeks, we plan to augment these tools and data. See more below.  See related Web section for more detail.

Use new resources to examine/analyze patterns of COVID-19 incidence in context of related demographic-economic characteristics. Resources include the narrative/interpretative portion, interactive table and GIS tools and project/files. Data and tools are updated daily. There is no fee to use any of these resources.

COVID-19 Incidence by County in the Atlanta Metro Area
The following graphic shows patterns of COVID-19 incidence (number of cases per 1,000 population) by county. See color patterns in the inset legend. This view shows counties labeled with name and number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Use the GIS project described below to create variations of this view and develop similar views for any metro.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

The GIS resources and interactive table below makes use of the COVID-19 confirmed cases data updated daily by the New York Times. See more about the New York Times U.S. tracking page.

COVID-19 Incidence — U.S. by County
Similar to the above view, the following graphic shows patterns of COVID-19 incidence (number of cases per 1,000 population) by county for the U.S. See color patterns in the inset legend. This view shows counties labeled with name and number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Use the GIS project described below to create variations of this view and develop similar views for any metro. Click graphic for larger, more detailed view. Expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Using GIS Tools & Resources
Use the Geographic Information System (GIS) CV XE GIS software and GIS project to view maps and geospatially analyze patterns COVID-19 cases in context of related demographic-economic data. The GIS project automatically opens with the following view:

.. see details about using the mapping/GIS resources.
.. create map views for your areas of interest.

COVID-19 Confirmed Cases by County Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to view, rank, query compare patterns of COVID-19 cases. See related demographic-economic interactive tables.

The following static graphic illustrates use of the table to view daily patterns of COVID-19 cases in Cobb County, GA.

Use the interactive table to examine counties of interest.

Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Climate Change & the Demographic-Economic Outlook

.. it is startling that many do not accept the reality that climate change is upon us. Climate change is, right now, affecting the demographic-economic outlook … how things will change in the next fifty years and how this change might impact each of us. A challenge is to determine how to best integrate the right set of data, variables, into our cause and effect predictive models. By doing so, we improve the quality and accuracy of projections. We can better examine what-if scenarios. Business decision-making and policy-making implications are enormous.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has recently taken the position that climate change has become a defining factor in companies’ long-term prospects.

Climate Risk Is Investment Risk
Investment strategies mean exiting/avoiding some investments that present a high sustainability-related risk, such as coal producers and new/expanded investment products that screen fossil fuels. Many others.

The impact of these types of investment risks are already appearing. While the stock market continues an unprecedented rally, energy sector companies are not performing as well. This impacts the metros/areas where they operate affecting the economic base and impacting the population/housing growth and composition.

Climate Risk Affects Personal/Family Decision-Making
As Larry Fink/Blackrock notes, what will happen to the 30-year mortgage – a key building block of finance – if lenders can’t estimate the impact of climate risk over such a long timeline? What if there is no viable market for flood or fire insurance in impacted areas? Happening now. What happens to inflation, and in turn interest rates, if the cost of food climbs from drought and flooding? Risks to human health and and migration due to climate change are already being experienced.

The Situation & Outlook — Improving Model Specification
This is our challenge — modeling economic change where emerging markets see their productivity impacted due to extreme heat and other climate impacts .. modeling migration of people and businesses being impacted by climate change .. modeling the housing infrastructure being implemented by climate change .. determining how and where climate change might impact personal income and GDP by county. In many cases, because of the way and what data are collected, it is difficult to sort out what part of migration, business change and other key measures are due in what part to climate change.

Quantification of climate change, and new model-based cause and effect specifications, will be reflected in the 2020 ProximityOne Situation & Outlook demographic-economic projections to 2060. For the first time, and on a continuing basis, we and our clients will be able to examine the quantified impact of climate change down to the county level of geography. This is now a topic included in the weekly Situation & Outlook web sessions.

Situation & Outlook Weekly Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook web session to discuss more details about demographic-economic estimates and projections.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Examining How Metro GDP is Changing

.. which metros had the largest 2018 real GDP? How did they change since 2010? How to they compare on a per capita basis? What about metros of interest to you? Read on …

As an investor, business or stakeholder in a metro, it is important to know how and where the economy is changing … and how one or selected metros relate to the U.S. and other metros. Is metro X changing in a different direction than metro Y? By how much, why and is there a pattern? What does the healthcare sector, for example, contribute to a metro’s gross domestic product (GDP)? How does it compare to peer metros? How is the healthcare industry trending? Metro GDP data can provide insights and answers to these important questions.  See related main Web page.

In 2018, per capita real gross domestic product (GDP) in MSAs ranged from $19,299 (The Villages, FL MSA) to $196,277 (Midland, TX MSA). The percent change in per capita real GDP by metro, 2010 to 2018 ranged from -24% (New Orleans-Metairie, LA MSA) to 126.6% (Midland, TX MSA). Use the interactive table to view these and related data.

Change in Per Capita Real GDP by Metro; 2010-2018
The following graphic shows patterns of change in per capita real GDP by metro (MSA) from 2010 to 2018. Label shows 2018 rank of the metro among all 384 MSAs based on 2018 per capita real GDP. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser to full window for best quality view.

— view created using ProximityOne CV XE GIS and associated GIS project

Top 25 Metros (MSAs) based on 2018 per capita real GDP
The following graphic shows the top 25 metros (MSAs) based on 2018 per capita real GDP labeled with rank. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser to full window for best quality view.

— view created using ProximityOne CV XE GIS and associated GIS project
 
Using the Interactive Table – 10 largest metros based on 2018 real GDP
— insights into comparative analytics and trends.
— view, rank, compare districts based on your criteria.
— example, which metros have the largest 2018 real GDP?
Use the interactive table to examine GDP characteristics and trends of metros. The following view illustrates use of the table. This view shows use a query to show the ten metros ranked on 2018 real GDP. Click graphic for larger view.

Try using the interactive table to examine metros of interest.

Demographic-Economic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

The Local Area Monthly Employment Situation

.. in June 2019, the local area unemployment rate ranged from 1.3% (Lyon County, IA) to 19.6% (Yuma County, AZ) among the lower 48 states. 133 counties had an unemployment rate of 7% or more during June 2018 through June 2019. Over the past year, as shown in the this interactive table, the unemployment rate has generally decreased among all counties. We track the local area employment situation historically and develop alternative scenario projections. See the related Web page for more information.

Patterns of Unemployment Rate by County
The following graphic shows patterns of the estimated June 2019 unemployment rate by county. Use the GIS tools and data to develop variations of this view optionally integrated with other data. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser window for best quality view.

— view created using the ProximityOne CV XE GIS and associated GIS Project

Examine Areas of Interest
This graphic illustrates the monthly over the year employment situation for the Houston, TX metro using the interactive table.

Click graphic for larger view.

Create a similar table for any metro:
Open the interactive table (green and white table midway down).
Click ShowAll button below table.
Key in a 5-character metro code in edit box at right of FindCBSACode.
    … get from scroll list at upper right of table.
    … e.g., 19100 for Dallas, TX metro.
Click FindCBSACode; table refreshes showing only counties in this metro.
Click Current Situation button below table; table refreshes with selected columns.
Click the Pop2018 column header cell twice to rank-order the columns.
Done .. try these steps for an area of interest.

Demographic-Economic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Census 2020 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data Updates

.. we are just two years away from the first census block level data from Census 2020.  The initial block level data will be the P.L. 94-171 redistricting data.  But before that, the initial Census 2020 TIGER/Line shapefiles/GIS files, the geography, will become available in November 2020, maybe earlier.  Stakeholders will be able to see how block and tract codes and geography have changed in many areas since 2010.  The prototype P.L. 94-171 data (see final file layout and subject matter items) are expected in the last week of March 2019 and will cover the Providence County, RI area. This post shows illustrative views and related details about the area. The Census 2020 P.L. 94-171 program and plans are reviewed in this Federal Register notice.

The applications/views shown below have been developed using the ProximityOne CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.

Census 2020 Data Access and Use Program
ProximityOne operates a comprehensive Census 2020 Data Access and Use Program providing tools to integrate and analyze these data with other data for redistricting, planning, evaluation, management, general analysis and policy-related applications. Contact us for more information; mention Census 2020 Data Access and Use Program in text section.

Providence, RI Census 2020 P.L. 94-171 Prototype
The Census 2020 P.L. 94-171 prototype covers Providence County, RI, part of the Providence-Warwick, RI-MA MSA (39300) — see Situation& Outlook report. Providence County is shown with cross-hatch pattern in the following graphic.

The next graphic shows a zoom-in to the county with cities/places shown with green fill pattern.

The next graphic shows patterns of economic prosperity for the county based on ACS 2017 median household income by census tract — blue, higher and red, lower.

The next graphic shows Census 2010 blocks for the county. Demographics described in the P.L. 94-171 file described about will be provided at the census block level.

Census block boundaries are primarily defined by roads. Providence County roads are shown in the next view.

The next view shows a zoom-in to the downtown Providence city area. Census blocks are shown with red boundaries and labeled with the 15-character U.S. national scope unique census block code. The pointer is located in census block 440070012001001, or 44-007-001200-1001, expressed as SS-CCC_TTTTTT-BBBB. Access these Census 2010 data (an example) using the Census FactFinder tool via this link. This is the “P1 RACE” table. The Census 2010 population of the block was 598. This census block is one of 13,597 Census 2010 census blocks comprising Providence County.

Rhode Island 116th Congressional Districts 01 and 02 (labeled) split Providence city (cross-hatch pattern) as shown in the graphic below. Pointer shows CD boundary.

Similar to above, the graphic below shows census blocks in context of Providence city (bold green boundary) and CDs 01 and 02.

Next Steps
This section provides a geographic orientation the Census 2020 P.L. 94-171 prototype area. A subsequent post (March 2019) will extend on this post with Census 2020 P.L. 94-171 data and related details. Use the downloadable project and software to examine geodemographics and redistricting operations.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
See these applications live/demoed. Run the applications on your own computer.
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.