Category Archives: Patterns

The Local Area Monthly Employment Situation

.. in June 2019, the local area unemployment rate ranged from 1.3% (Lyon County, IA) to 19.6% (Yuma County, AZ) among the lower 48 states. 133 counties had an unemployment rate of 7% or more during June 2018 through June 2019. Over the past year, as shown in the this interactive table, the unemployment rate has generally decreased among all counties. We track the local area employment situation historically and develop alternative scenario projections. See the related Web page for more information.

Patterns of Unemployment Rate by County
The following graphic shows patterns of the estimated June 2019 unemployment rate by county. Use the GIS tools and data to develop variations of this view optionally integrated with other data. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser window for best quality view.

— view created using the ProximityOne CV XE GIS and associated GIS Project

Examine Areas of Interest
This graphic illustrates the monthly over the year employment situation for the Houston, TX metro using the interactive table.

Click graphic for larger view.

Create a similar table for any metro:
Open the interactive table (green and white table midway down).
Click ShowAll button below table.
Key in a 5-character metro code in edit box at right of FindCBSACode.
    … get from scroll list at upper right of table.
    … e.g., 19100 for Dallas, TX metro.
Click FindCBSACode; table refreshes showing only counties in this metro.
Click Current Situation button below table; table refreshes with selected columns.
Click the Pop2018 column header cell twice to rank-order the columns.
Done .. try these steps for an area of interest.

Demographic-Economic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Census Tract Demographic-Economic Characteristics & Trends

..  Census tract demographics are used in wide-ranging public and private sector applications to examine patterns and characteristics of sub-county areas. Tract level data from Census 2000Census 2010 and the American Community Survey (ACS) can be used to analyze trade/market areas, neighborhoods and other small area study areas. But what about more current data and trends since 2010? What about business establishment data and other subject matter not included in either the census or ACS data?

There are no current demographic-economic census tract data available from the Census Bureau or other Federal statistical programs. Annually released ACS 5-year estimates are available by census tract but are for 5-year periods and dated. The most recent census tract level ACS data are based on the ACS 2017 5-year estimates (ACS 1317). Those data are not for the year 2017 but estimates for ACS survey respondents for the 5 year period 2013-2017; centric to mid-2015.

Patterns of Median Household Income %Change by Census Tract
The graphic below shows patterns of economic prosperity change based on median household income percent change ACS 2012 to ACS 2017 by tract in the Dallas metro area.

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Using the Interactive Table
Use the interactive table .. click this link .. to view, query, rank, compare selected characteristics of the population, housing, educational attainment and income for census tracts based on ACS 2012 5-year, and ACS 2017 5-year data. Hundreds of additional items are available. See about related census tract data resources and applications.

Try it yourself ..
Tracts with ACS 2017 population 3,500-4,500 ranked on change in $MHI:
Replicate the following graphic using the interactive table. This view was produced by clicking the Pop17 button below the table to select only tracts with a ACS 2017 population between 3,500 and 4,500. Then the $MHI columns button was clicked to view only selected columns. Finally the qualifying tracts were sorted in descending order by clicking the $MHI Change column header cell.

Based on these estimates, tract 04013105004 in Maricopa County, AZ is top ranked, where the $MHI increased by $97,723 from the ACS 2012 5-year period to the ACS 2017 5-year period.

Corresponding API calls to access the $MHI for this tract (click links to access data):
ACS 2012 $MHIACS 2017 $MHI
Join us in an upcoming Data Analytics Web Session (see below) to learn more about using APIs to access these data and similar data.

Access more detailed ACS 2017 tract interactive tables:
  General demographics .. Social .. Economic .. Housing

Demographic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

County Housing Patterns & Trends

.. at a time when “housing costs are going through the roof” and “affordable housing” are topics widely in play, current housing data at the county level are essential for business and public policy planning. In this section, new Census Bureau U.S. by county 2018 housing unit estimates are viewed .. and tools to access and use these data.

Patterns of Housing Unit Percent Change by County: 2010-2018
The graphic below shows patterns of county housing unit percent change from 2010 to 2018. Click graphic for larger view showing more detail.

– view developed using CV XE GIS software and associated GIS project.
– create similar maps for counties/areas using CV XE GIS & associated GIS project.

This section reviews the new 2018 county housing unit estimates (released May 2019) and tools and applications to analyze them. See more about topics covered here in this related Web section.

The U.S. housing stock grew by more than 1.15 million from 2017 to 2018, reaching over 138.5 million units. The growth rate of 0.8 percent from 2017 to 2018. The national housing stock increased by 6.7 million units (5.1 percent) between 7/1/2010 and 7/1/2018. But housing stock change was far from even as shown in the graphic presented above.

Total housing units are the “tip of the iceberg” to examine housing market characteristics. Yet, there are no other Federal statistical data for any other housing attribute for every county more recent than circa mid-2015. Those data are from the American Community Survey 5-year estimates for the period 2013-2017 — data going on 4 years old. For example, there are no Federal statistical data for all counties for the 2018 number of households or vacant units … let alone measures that would enable computing the size and location of affordable housing, one of many important housing market attributes. Use related 2018 and projected housing market data developed by ProximityOne available as part of the Situation & Outlook demographic-economic estimates and projections. Examine these data in context with other geographic and market characteristics in the metro Situation & Outlook reports.

Using the Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to view, rank, compare states and counties based on number of units annually 2010 to 2018 and related measures. Compare counties among metros or states .. or peer groups based on size. Here are two examples of using the table.

Largest Counties based on 2018 Housing Units
.. ranked on 2018 housing units .. click for larger view

Counties with 10,000 or more 2018 Housing Units
.. ranked on percent change 2010-2018 .. click for larger view

Data Analytics Web Sessions
See these applications live/demoed. Run the applications on your own computer.
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

State of the States: 2018 Population & Components of Change

.. Welcome to 2019 .. how the U.S., states and world population are changing … the Census Bureau estimates the U.S. population is 328,231,337 as of January 1, 2019. This represents an increase of 2,013,241, or 0.62 percent, from New Year’s Day 2018 (326,218,096). The population as of Census Day (April 1) 2010, was 308,745,538 and has grown by 19,485,799, or 6.31 percent.

This section updates January 2020, with corresponding 2019 updates and additional details. Follow (click follow button at upper right) to receive updates on this and geographic, demographic and economic change with drill-down to the street intersection level.

In January 2019, the U.S. is expected to experience one birth every 8 seconds and one death every 11 seconds. Meanwhile, net international migration is expected to add one person to the U.S. population every 29 seconds. The combination of births, deaths and net international migration will increase the U.S. population by one person every 19 seconds … one net international migrant every 34 seconds.

The world population on January 1, 2019 is estimated to be 7,541,221,651. The world has experienced a population increase of 96,777,770, or 1.3 percent, from New Year’s Day 2018 (population 7,444,443,881). During January 2019, 4.8 births and 1.9 deaths are expected worldwide every second.

Patterns of Population Change by State, 2010-2018
The following graphic shows patterns of percent population change from 2010 to 2018. Use the associated GIS project to examine different years or subject matter items. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

How the U.S. Population is Changing
The following graphic shows how the population of the U.S. has changed from 2010 to 2018 and how the population might change 2019 through 2020. Click graphic for larger view; opens in new page. The population is as of July 1 for each year. The components of change (birth, deaths and migration) are for the period July 1 through June 30 for that year.

Population for each year is computed by the population identity equation:
  P[t]=P[t-1] + B[t,t-1] -D[t,t-1] + M[t,t-1]
Viewing the larger image, see how each of the components of change are impacting the total population and population change.
… see more detail about these data for the U.S. and by state at http://proximityone.com/states2018.htm.

More About Population Trends, Patterns and Characteristics
See more about how population dynamics; use the interactive tables in these sections:
  • School Districts — http://proximityone.com/sdtrends.htm
  • Cities — http://proximityone.com/places2017.htm
  • Counties — http://proximityone.com/countytrends2017.htm
  • Metros — http://proximityone.com/metros.htm
  • States — http://proximityone.com/states2018.htm

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Housing Price Index 2017Q3-2018Q3

.. this past week the 3rd quarter 2018 (2018Q3) Housing Price Index (HPI) was released for the U.S., states and metros. As a leading economic indicator, the HPI often gives insights into how the housing market and economy might be changing in the months ahead. The fact that the HPI data are quarterly and become available with a short lag time makes the measure even more valuable. This section provides an update on the HPI 2018Q3 and quarterly data for the past year. See the related Web page for more detailed data and access to the HPI data via interactive table.

Visual Analysis of 2017Q3-2018Q3 HPI Patterns
The following graphic shows housing value appreciation 2017Q3-2018Q3 by metro based on the HPI.

Click graphic for larger view and details. This view developed using CV XE GIS and related GIS project. Members of the ProximityOne User Group (join now, no fee) may used the CV XE GIS software and GIS project to create similar views with different HPI measures. Zoom-in. Add labels. Add other geography/data. Create views/graphics for reports and stories.

The Larger Picture
The HPI is calculated using home sales price information from Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-acquired mortgages. By itself, the HPI provides limited insights into the broader picture of “the why” and “how otherwise” states and metros are changing. The Situation & Outlook Metro Profiles provide an integrated view of the HPI measure in combination with other economic, demographic and business activity measure. View the HPI integrated with other subject matter … choose a metro. Metro Profiles are updated continuously and are available for each of the metropolitan area.

HPI Interactive Table
Use the HPI interactive table to view/rank/compare the non-seasonally adjusted “all transactions” HPI for the most recent 5 quarters for all Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), states and the U.S. The graphic shown below illustrates use of the interactive table to rank all metros in descending order on the percent change over the past year.

Updates & Related Measures
Quarterly HPI measures are used to updated the interactive table, GIS project and Metro Profiles. HPI by county, ZIP Code and census tract are updated annually. The 2018 county, ZIP Code and census tract HPI data are scheduled for release in February 2019.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

How the New York Metro is Changing

.. or more precisely, how the New York Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is changing. As of Census 2010 the New York MSA (officially the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA) consisted of 20 counties. With the new OMB metropolitan statistical areas defined as of February 2013, the New York MSA became 22 counties, absorbing the Poughkeepsie, NY MSA two counties (Dutchess and Orange). The Poughkeepie MSA was removed from the official MSAs. The delineation remained that way until the new September 2018 delineations when the Census 2010 delineation was restored. Now, the Poughkeepsie, NY MSA exists as a 2 county area and the New York MSA exists as a 20 county area (both as they existed geographically in Census 2010).

These metro-county relationships are shown in the graphic presented below. The Poughkeepsie, NY MSA is shown with the blue cross-hatch to the north and the New York MSA is shown with the salmon color pattern.

– view developed using the CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.
– see the related New York Metro Situation & Outlook report.

What Difference Does it Make?
A lot! First, during the interim period 2013-2018, the Poughkeepsie, NY MSA lost the metropolitan area identity/status as conferred by the OMB delineations. It might have been omitted from size class market development and research analyses. Related, that metro was not included as a tabulation or estimation area of MSAs by Federal statistical agencies. An example of the impact is that the official demographic estimates for the Poughkeepsie, NY MSA developed by the Census Bureau were not tabulated as such and omitted from various statistical reports. Also, the removal of designation and now adding the designation back, creates a hiccup in the time series — affecting both the Poughkeepsie NY MSA and the New York MSA.

Detailed Demographic Profiles for New York MSA and Poughkeepsie, NY MSA
.. click link to view profile.

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA
  Bergen County, NJ (34003)
  Essex County, NJ (34013)
  Hudson County, NJ (34017)
  Hunterdon County, NJ (34019)
  Middlesex County, NJ (34023)
  Monmouth County, NJ (34025)
  Morris County, NJ (34027)
  Ocean County, NJ (34029)
  Passaic County, NJ (34031)
  Somerset County, NJ (34035)
  Sussex County, NJ (34037)
  Union County, NJ (34039)
  Bronx County, NY (36005)
  Kings County, NY (36047)
  Nassau County, NY (36059)
  New York County, NY (36061)
  Putnam County, NY (36079)
  Queens County, NY (36081)
  Richmond County, NY (36085)
  Rockland County, NY (36087)
  Suffolk County, NY (36103)
  Westchester County, NY (36119)
  Pike County, PA (42103)

Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY (CBSA 39100)
  Dutchess County, NY (36027)
  Orange County, NY (36071)

Looking Forward
The September 2018 CBSA delineations define counties that will be used for Census 2020 (likely, there could be yet further changes) — 384 MSAs in the U.S. In the cases of the New York MSA and the Poughkeepsie, NY MSA, it appears that the geography (component counties) used for Census 2010 will be the same as for Census 2020. Going forward, ProximityOne estimates and projections will use the most current vintage of CBSAs.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Census Block, Block Group & Census Tract GeoDemographics

Census tracts, block groups and blocks are the important small area statistical geographic areas for which data from Census 2010 are tabulated. Data for census tracts and block groups are also tabulated annually from the American Community Survey. For example. in December 2018, we will have new “richer demographics” annual estimates centric to each year 2008 through 2015 for Census 2010 tracts and block groups … data such as educational attainment, language spoken, housing and household characteristics,  income characteristics and employment and other demographic-economic attributes.

Largest Population New York City (NYC) Census Blocks
The following graphic shows the NYC Census 2010 census block having the largest Census 2010 population that is not a group quarters population block. The Lincoln Center census block shown in the graphic (red boundary) has 4,067 population and 2,922 housing units.

– click graphic for larger view; view developed using CV XE GIS

This block (36 061 015500 6000) occupies 0.033 square miles. It has a population density of 122,333 (population per square mile). The NYC block with the largest population is on Rikers Island and has a group quarters population of 8,634 and 0 housing units. For Census 2010, there were 350,169 census blocks covering the state of New York; 13,356 census blocks were water blocks. For the State of New York, as of Census 2010 the average census block population was 55 (57 excluding water blocks).

Census 2010 and Census 2020
These geographies have generally stable geographic areas and codes from one decennial census (e.g., Census 2010) to the next (e.g., Census 2020). Many of these areas will change in terms of code and area for Census 2020, though the geographic changes will typically be small or not at all.

Census 2020 block, block group and tract codes and geometry will be available in late 2020. Initial block level demographics will be available in March 2021.

Census 2010 & Current GeoDemographics
These areas cover the U.S. from wall-to-wall and generally non-changing in terms of boundary and geographic code (geocode) until Census 2020. This section provides a summary of new Web pages with more detail about each of these geographies:
census tracts and tract codes .. 73,056 areas
census block groups and block group codes .. 217,740 areas
census blocks and block codes .. 11,078,297 areas

Each of these pages provides an interactive table to view tallies of Census 2010 for each of these small area geographies.

Combining Address Data with Small Area Geography
The address of the Office of the California Secretary of State, located at 1500 11th St, Sacramento, CA 95814, was geocoded using the APIGeocoder and converted into a shapefile for Geographic Information System applications.  The location is shown as a red marker in the map views shown below, illustrating each type of small area geography: tracts. block groups and blocks.

Census Tracts
Tracts are labeled with green tract codes. Address 1500 11th St, Sacramento, CA 95814 is shown by red marker.  The address is in tract 06067001101.

View created using CV XE GIS.

Block Groups
Block groups are labeled with red block group codes.  Tract 06067001101 is comprised of block groups: 060670011011 and 060670011012.  See pointer in map view; the block group within tract boundary.

View created using CV XE GIS.

Zoom-in to Census Block
Blocks are labeled with yellow block codes. The address is located in block 060670011011085.

View created using CV XE GIS.

Further Zoom-in Showing Streets
Streets are labeled with street names. Identify tool is used to show mini-profile for 1500 block of 11th Street.

View created using CV XE GIS.

Is the tract code 11.01 or 001101?
Both. Census tracts within a county are identified by a 4-digit basic code between 0001 and 9999, and may have a 2-digit suffix ranging from .01 to .98; for example, 6059.02. The decimal point separating the 4-digit basic tract code from the 2-digit suffix is shown in Census Bureau printed reports and maps. For geo-referencing, the decimal point is implied and does not appear; the 6-character tract code with lead zeroes is used — a character string with no blanks and all numbers.

Accessing and Using these Geographies & Related Demographics
There are several ways these geographies can be used.
• The geocodes are the “handles” to access demographic-economic statistical data.
• The geographies may be visually, geospatially, related as shapefiles.
.. the Census Bureau makes these shapefiles available for use in user appications.
.. the shapefiles typically do not include demographic-economic data.

Access Census 2010 Census Block (and Block Group/Tract) data:
• P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data — http://proximityone.com/cen2010_pl94171.htm
• Summary File 1 — http://proximityone.com/cen2010_sf1.htm

Access Census Block Group and Tract richer demographics:
• 2016 American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates
  — http://proximityone.com/acs1216.htm
• Access annual counterparts to above section
• Census blocks — http://proximityone.com/cenblk.htm
• Census block groups — http://proximityone.com/blockgroups.htm
• Census tracts — http://proximityone.com/tracts.htm

Alternatively use the Census Bureau APIs or CV XE GIS APIGateway.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
.. is my area urban, rural or …
.. how do census blocks relate to congressional district? redistricting?
.. how can I map census block demographics?
Join me in a Data Analytics Web Session, every Tuesday, where we review access to and use of data, tools and methods relating to GeoStatistical Data Analytics Learning. We review current topical issues and data — and how you can access/use tools/data to meet your needs/interests.

About the Author
Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.