Category Archives: Population

How the New York Metro is Changing

.. or more precisely, how the New York Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is changing. As of Census 2010 the New York MSA (officially the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA) consisted of 20 counties. With the new OMB metropolitan statistical areas defined as of February 2013, the New York MSA became 22 counties, absorbing the Poughkeepsie, NY MSA two counties (Dutchess and Orange). The Poughkeepie MSA was removed from the official MSAs. The delineation remained that way until the new September 2018 delineations when the Census 2010 delineation was restored. Now, the Poughkeepsie, NY MSA exists as a 2 county area and the New York MSA exists as a 20 county area (both as they existed geographically in Census 2010).

These metro-county relationships are shown in the graphic presented below. The Poughkeepsie, NY MSA is shown with the blue cross-hatch to the north and the New York MSA is shown with the salmon color pattern.

– view developed using the CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.
– see the related New York Metro Situation & Outlook report.

What Difference Does it Make?
A lot! First, during the interim period 2013-2018, the Poughkeepsie, NY MSA lost the metropolitan area identity/status as conferred by the OMB delineations. It might have been omitted from size class market development and research analyses. Related, that metro was not included as a tabulation or estimation area of MSAs by Federal statistical agencies. An example of the impact is that the official demographic estimates for the Poughkeepsie, NY MSA developed by the Census Bureau were not tabulated as such and omitted from various statistical reports. Also, the removal of designation and now adding the designation back, creates a hiccup in the time series — affecting both the Poughkeepsie NY MSA and the New York MSA.

Detailed Demographic Profiles for New York MSA and Poughkeepsie, NY MSA
.. click link to view profile.

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA
  Bergen County, NJ (34003)
  Essex County, NJ (34013)
  Hudson County, NJ (34017)
  Hunterdon County, NJ (34019)
  Middlesex County, NJ (34023)
  Monmouth County, NJ (34025)
  Morris County, NJ (34027)
  Ocean County, NJ (34029)
  Passaic County, NJ (34031)
  Somerset County, NJ (34035)
  Sussex County, NJ (34037)
  Union County, NJ (34039)
  Bronx County, NY (36005)
  Kings County, NY (36047)
  Nassau County, NY (36059)
  New York County, NY (36061)
  Putnam County, NY (36079)
  Queens County, NY (36081)
  Richmond County, NY (36085)
  Rockland County, NY (36087)
  Suffolk County, NY (36103)
  Westchester County, NY (36119)
  Pike County, PA (42103)

Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY (CBSA 39100)
  Dutchess County, NY (36027)
  Orange County, NY (36071)

Looking Forward
The September 2018 CBSA delineations define counties that will be used for Census 2020 (likely, there could be yet further changes) — 384 MSAs in the U.S. In the cases of the New York MSA and the Poughkeepsie, NY MSA, it appears that the geography (component counties) used for Census 2010 will be the same as for Census 2020. Going forward, ProximityOne estimates and projections will use the most current vintage of CBSAs.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

U.S. House of Representatives 2020 Apportionment

.. Congressional Apportionment by State .. 2010 & projected 2020 state by state congressional seats.

What will the results of Census 2020 tell us us about how the House of Representatives will be reapportioned, state by state? This section examines scenarios which might occur based on state population projections. See related Web section http://proximityone.com/apportionment.htm for more detail and interactive table.

Use the GIS tools and project to make your own map views … see details
.. use in classroom .. research .. reference .. collaboration.

This section has been developed using
– 2020 apportionment population projections
.. part of the ProximityOne Situation & Outlook (S&O)
– the reapportionment/redistricting feature of the CV XE GIS software
The 2020 population projections reflect anticipated change under one scenario. Those values are then used in the CV XE GIS reapportionment operation to compute the number of House seats shown in the related table.

Apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives
— based on the 2010 Census

– view created with CV XE GIS. Click graphic for larger view with more detail.

Apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives
— based on ProximityOne 2020 Population Projections

– view created with CV XE GIS. Click graphic for larger view with more detail.

Congressional apportionment is the process of dividing the 435 memberships, or seats, in the House of Representatives among the 50 states based on the population figures collected during the decennial census. The number of seats in the House has grown with the country. Congress sets the number in law and increased the number to 435 in 1913. The Constitution set the number of representatives at 65 from 1787 until the first Census of 1790, when it was increased to 105 members. More about apportionment.

Initial Census 2020 demographic data, the apportionment data, will be released by December 31, 2020. See related Census 2010 Apportionments.

Apportionment totals were calculated by a congressionally defined formula, in accordance with Title 2 of the U.S. Code, to divide among the states the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. The apportionment population consists of the resident population of the 50 states, plus the overseas military and federal civilian employees and their dependents living with them who could be allocated to a state. Each member of the House represents, on average, about 710,767 people for Census 2010.

Using the Interactive table
The following graphic illustrates use of the 2010 & 2020 apportionment by state and historical apportionment 1910 to 2010. Sort on any column; compare apportionment patterns over time. Click graphic for larger view.
Use the interactive table at http://proximityone.com/apportionment.htm#table.

Congressional District/State Legislative District Group
Join the CDSLD Group (http://proximityone.com/cdsld.htm), a forum intended for individuals interested in accessing and using geodemographic data and analytical tools relating to voting districts, congressional districts & state legislative districts and related geography with drill-down to intersection/street segment and census block level. Receive updates on topics like that of this section.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Examining State-to-State Geographic Mobility

.. tools, resources and insights to examine U.S. by state migration 2011-2017 and migration flows in 2016 .. this post is an excerpt from the more detailed Web page http://proximityone.com/statemigration.htm.

In examining future demographic trends, the most challenging component of change to project (develop data values into the future) is migration. Migration, comprised net domestic and net international migration, is a function of many factors whose cause and effect behavior can change year by year, and geographic area by area. While this section is focused on states, the same scope of data is available to the county and sub-county levels. In this section, U.S. by state migration is examined using two data sources: annual population and components of change model-based estimates (2010-2017 model-based estimates) and annual American Community Survey estimates (ACS 2016 estimates). While these Census Bureau programs are highly related, the migration data/subject matter differ some.

State Net Domestic Migration, 2011-2017
The following graphic shows patterns net domestic migration for the period 2011-2017, based on the model-based estimates. The patterns of migration change, direction and magnitude are immediately evident. Click on the graphic to see a larger view showing more detail. Expand browser to full screen for best quality view. The larger view shows a portion of a mini-profile for Florida. The mini-profile illustrates how these data are comprised … annual net domestic migration estimates and the sum over the years 2011-2017. See the interactive table to view these data, and related components of change, in a tabular, numeric form. Use the GIS project (details here) to create similar views for any state; visual analysis of outmigration for any state showing outmigration by destination state. Label areas as desired. Add other layers. Add your own data.

View created with CV XE GIS. Click graphic for larger view with more detail.

State OutMigration by Destination State
The model-based estimates, reviewed above, do not provide detail on state-to-state migration. Those data are provided by the related ACS 2016 estimates. Note that the ACS 2016 1-year estimates are for the calendar year 2016. From these data we can get the following migration detail … In 2016, there were an estimated 605,018 people who moved from a residence 1 year earlier, in a different state, to Florida. Florida experienced the largest number of movers (inflows) from other states among all states. 60,472 of these movers were from New York. See the interactive table in this section to examine similar characteristics for any state. These data are based on the 2016 ACS 1 year estimates. See about related data.

The American Community Survey (ACS) asks respondents age 1 year and over whether they lived in the same residence 1 year ago. For people who lived in a different residence, the location of their previous residence is collected. The state-to-state migration flows are created from tabulations of the current state (including the District of Columbia) of residence crossed by state of residence 1 year ago.

Movers Within and Between States & Selected Areas During 2016
Use the interactive table to examine state outmigration by destination state. View, compare, query, rank and export data of interest.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
.. is my area urban, rural or …
.. how do census blocks relate to congressional district? redistricting?
.. how can I map census block demographics?
Join me in a Data Analytics Web Session, every Tuesday, where we review access to and use of data, tools and methods relating to GeoStatistical Data Analytics Learning. We review current topical issues and data — and how you can access/use tools/data to meet your needs/interests.

About the Author
Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

How America’s Cities are Changing

… tools, data and insights into how America’s cities are changing, 2010-to 2017.  Of the nation’s 325.7 million people, an estimated 205.0 million (62.9%) live within an incorporated place as of July 1, 2017. Of approximately 19,500 incorporated places, about 76 percent had fewer than 5,000 people and nearly 50 percent had fewer than 1,000 people. Examine characteristics of individual city population trends and compare cities in states, regions and peer groups using the interactive table in this related section. See three related static tables below showing characteristics the 15 largest cities. Use the U.S. by cities shapefile with your GIS projects. See related GIS & mapping details. See more about the sources and uses of these data in this related section.

Mapping America’s 15 Largest Cities
The following view shows cities with 2017 population of 874,000 or more in blue. Labels show rank among all cities based on 2017 population. These 15 cities have a total 2017 population of 30.6 million of the 205 million total population in all U.S. cities (15%). Click graphic for larger view; expand window to full screen.
… click links in Table 3 below to view maps of these cities.

– View developed using the CV XE GIS software.

Patterns of City Percent Change in Population 2010-17
— Cities in the Los Angeles Area
The following view shows thematic patterns of population percent change, 2010-17 for cities in the Los Angeles, CA area. See color/interval assignment in legend. Click graphic for larger view; expand window to full screen. Larger view shows city names and 2017 population.

– View developed using the CV XE GIS software.
– Flexibly create your own views using the cities GIS project.
– Examine city population trends, patterns; zoom to desired areas; label as needed; integrate other data.

Tables Showing the Largest 15 cities
Data/characteristics shown in the following static tables may also be viewed in the interactive table above with more flexibility and details.

Table 1. 15 Cities With the Largest Numeric Increase, 7/1/16-7/1/17
.. cities with populations of 50,000 or more in 2016

Table 2. 15 Fastest-Growing Large Cities, 7/1/16-7/1/17
.. having populations of 50,000 or more in 2016

Table 3. 15 Most Populous Cities as of July 1, 2017
These 15 cities have a total 2017 population of 30.6 million of the 205 million total population in all U.S. cities (15%).

Mapping & GeoSpatial Analysis of the Largest 15 Cities
Click link in the list below to view map of city shown in the above table.
1 New York
2 Los Angeles
3 Chicago
4 Houston
5 Phoenix
6 Philadelphia
7 San Antonio
8 San Diego
9 Dallas
10 San Jose
11 Austin
12 Jacksonville
13 San Francisco
14 Columbus
15 Fort Worth

City/Place Demographics in Context & Related Data
• State & Regional Demographic-Economic Characteristics & Patterns
.. individual state sections with analytical tools & data access to block level
• Metropolitan Area Situation & Outlook
.. continuously updated characteristics, patterns & trends for each/all metros
• ACS 2016 5-year estimates
.. related City/Place Demographic-Economic Interactive Tables
.. General Demographics … Social … Economic … Housing Characteristics
• Corresponding U.S. by County 2010-2017 Estimates

Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Data Analytics Web Session, every Tuesday, where we review access to and use of data, tools and methods relating to GeoStatistical Data Analytics Learning. We review current topical issues and data — and how you can access/use tools/data to meet your needs/interests.

About the Author
Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

How & Why State Demographics Are Changing

.. to examine how and why state demographics are changing, we look at the state as the sum of its parts — counties. Here we review tools and data to examine how and why state/county population is changing … is the population moving away or into your areas of interest? What are the trends; what is causing the change? what are the characteristics of the population moving in and out? How might this impact your living environment and business? See related Web section for more detail on topics covered here and access interactive table.

Patterns of Population Change by County, 2010-2017
The following graphic shows how counties have gained population (blue and green) and lost population (orange and red) during the period 2010 to 2017. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

The above graphic provides a visual summary of how and why demographics are changing from 2010 to 2017 in terms of components of change: births, deaths and migration. See the underlying data in this interactive table.

Change in the population from births and deaths is often combined and referred to as natural increase/change. The other way an area population changes is through migration (net international, net domestic, net migration). Examining an area’s unique combination of natural change and migration provides insights into why its population is changing and how quickly the change is occurring.

Examine States of Interest
Click a state link to view details about specific states …
Alabama .. Alaska .. Arizona .. Arkansas .. California .. Colorado .. Connecticut .. Delaware .. Florida .. Georgia .. Hawaii .. Idaho .. Illinois .. Indiana .. Iowa .. Kansas .. Kentucky .. Louisiana .. Maine .. Maryland .. Massachusetts .. Michigan .. Minnesota .. Mississippi .. Missouri .. Montana .. Nebraska .. Nevada .. New Hampshire .. New Jersey .. New Mexico .. New York .. North Carolina .. North Dakota .. Ohio .. Oklahoma .. Oregon .. Pennsylvania .. Rhode Island .. South Carolina .. South Dakota .. Tennessee .. Texas .. Utah .. Vermont .. Virginia .. Washington .. West Virginia .. Wisconsin .. Wyoming

Situation & Outlook Briefing Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Briefing Session, every Tuesday, where we review the where, what, how, and when of demographic-economic-business change – and how change might impact you.  We review current topical issues and data — and how you can access/use tools/data to meet your needs/interests.

About the Author
Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

 

2018 U.S. & World Population

.. Welcome to 2018 .. how the U.S. and world are changing …

This section updates January 1, 2019, with corresponding 2019 updates and additional details. Please follow (click follow button at upper right) to receive updates.

The Census Bureau estimates the U.S. population is 326,971,407 as of January 1, 2018. This represents an increase of 2,314,238, or 0.71 percent, from New Year’s Day 2017. Since Census Day (April 1) 2010, the population has grown by 18,225,587, or 5.90 percent.

In January 2018, the U.S. is expected to experience one birth every 8 seconds and one death every 10 seconds. Meanwhile, net international migration is expected to add one person to the U.S. population every 29 seconds. The combination of births, deaths and net international migration will increase the U.S. population by one person every 18 seconds.

The world population on January 1, 2018 is estimated to be 7,444,443,881. The world has experienced a population increase of 78,521,283, or 1.07 percent, from New Year’s Day 2017. During January 2018, 4.3 births and 1.8 deaths are expected worldwide every second.

Patterns of Population Change by State, 2010-2017
The following graphic shows patterns of percent population change from 2010 to 2017. Use the associated GIS project to examine different years or subject matter items. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

How the U.S. Population is Changing
The following graphic shows how the population of the U.S. has changed from 2010 to 2017 and how the population might change 2018 through 2020. Click graphic for large view. The population is as of July 1 for each year. The components of change (birth, deaths and migration) are for the period July 1 through June 30 for that year.

Population for each year is computed by the population identity equation:
  P[t]=P[t-1] + B[t,t-1] -D[t,t-1] + M[t,t-1]
Viewing the larger image, see how each of the components of change are impacting the total population and population change.
… see more detail about these data for the U.S. and by state at http://proximityone.com/states2017.htm.

More About Population Trends, Patterns and Characteristics
See more about how population dynamics; use the interactive tables in these sections:
  • School Districts — http://proximityone.com/sdtrends.htm
  • Cities — http://proximityone.com/places2016.htm
  • Counties — http://proximityone.com/countytrends2016.htm
  • Metros — http://proximityone.com/metrotrends2016.htm
  • States — http://proximityone.com/states2017.htm

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Examining America’s 10 Largest Urban Areas

.. why it matters .. among other reasons, these 10 areas have 24% of the total U.S. population. Three have increased by more than 20% in the past 5 years.

More than 80-percent of America’s population is urban, but far more than 80-percent of America’s geography is rural. Census 2010 shows that America’s urban population increased by 12.1 percent from 2000 to 2010, compared to the national overall growth rate of 9.7 percent. Urban areas now account for 80.7 percent of the U.S. population, compared to 79.0 percent in 2000.

America’s 10 Largest Urbanized Areas
The following table shows the largest 10 Urbanized Areas (UAs) based on the American Community Survey 2011 and 2016 1-year estimates (ACS2016) and change over the period. UAs are sorted in descending order based on the 2016 population estimate. Note that Atlanta, Dallas and Houston moved up in rank.

Geodemographic relationships vary widely between the urbanized areas (UAs). Some, such as Miami, comprise most or all of the urban area within the corresponding metropolitan statistical area. Others, such as Philadelphia, are nested within a mix of adjacent urban areas interspersed with rural areas. Among other things, these different geodemographic structures reflect how planning, needs assessment and market development vary widely from associated metro-to-metro. These data show the importance and need to consider the urban/rural population distribution even in the largest metros.

Visual Analysis — Dallas Urbanized Area
The urbanized area (UA) of the corresponding metropolitan statistical area (MSA) generally occupies less than half of the MSA.
See the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA Situation and Outlook Report

… View developed using CV XE GIS.

Map Views for Each of the Largest 10 Urbanized Areas
Maps for each of the 10 largest UAs are shown at
http://proximityone.com/urbanareas_2016.htm.

Each graphic shows the designated urbanized area in a darker salmon color fill pattern, associated metropolitan statistical area with bold brown boundary, and other urban areas with a lighter shade of salmon fill color, counties black boundaries and yellow labels. The ACS 2016 UA population is shown as a white label under the UA name. The ACS 2016 estimates are the most recent data available and will update with 2017 estimates in late 2018.

More About Analyzing Urban/Rural Patterns and Characteristics
See the related section on America’s urban/rural population and geography:
http://proximityone.com/urbanpopulation.htm.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on L