Tag Archives: Atlanta population projections

Census 2020 LUCA Program and You

.. what would be the financial impact of a one-percent understatement in the Census 2020 population count? Many political districts are drawn based upon population change and shifts, and allocations of government funding and services are made based upon official population data. Consider this one specific example. For each one-percent of the Atlanta MSA population missed in Census 2020, potentially due to less than fully accurate address and location data, the financial impact could be on the order of $414 million per year. How and why? At margin, each person not counted in the decennial census results in a per capita disposable income loss for the area in the magnitude of $5,494 in 2000, and $6,770 per person in 2020. 61,100 people undercounted times $6,770 yields $414 million.

This section is about the Censue 2020 Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA) program and how it might impact the reduction in undercount .. and make the data more accurate for wide-ranging needs and uses. Read on for details about the LUCA program.

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA
The Atlanta metro shown with black bold boundary. More about this metro.

– View developed with CV XE GIS software.
– Click graphic to view patterns of neighborhood economic prosperity.

Financial Impact Details … the 2015 per capita current transfer payments (PCTP) in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta MSA were $6,132, up from $5,494 in 2010. The PCTP figure in 2020 may be $6,770. For each one-percent of the Atlanta MSA population (61,100 people) missed in Census 2020, potentially due to less than fully accurate address and location data, the financial impact could be in the order of $414 million (61,100 x $6,770) per year as of Census 2020.  $414 million per year based on the 2020 population and PCTP.

Financial Impact in Your Areas of Interest
Estimate the financial impact in your areas of interest. Get the 2010 and 2015 population and PCTP data from the REIS Interactive Table for any county or state.  Compute the 2020 population and PCTP values, potential undercount to determine the financial impact on an area of interest

Census 2020 LUCA Overview
The Census 2020 LUCA program is an initiative of the Census Bureau, partnering with thousands of state and local governments across the U.S. At the core of this program, Census provides address list data to communities; those communities compare those data with their own data and provide address/geographic updates back to the Census Bureau.  The updated address and geographic data are integrated into the TIGER/Line files  — geographic backbone for collecting and tabulating the Census results. This important MAF/TIGER address-plus update program will help insure improved accuracy for Census 2020. LUCA is a geographic data development program engaging local communities across the U.S.

ProximityOne works with local areas to improve the TIGER/Line files leading up to Census 2020. Using the CV XE GIS software and specialized expertise, we helped hundreds of governmental units, including all of the State of Georgia, improve the coverage and content of the TIGER/Line files and thus the accuracy and completeness of Census 2010.

The Census 2020 LUCA program is starting now in 2016.  See the full schedule and related details in the LUCA Web section.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Atlanta Metro Demographic Outlook: 2015 to 2040

.. population projections to 2040 by age group: 25 year demographic outlook .. current demographic estimates are important as they tell us “where we are now” for a geographic area. Demographic projections tell us how the population size and composition might change in the future. Current (2015) demographic estimates and projections to 2040 are described in this section for the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA metropolitan statistical area (see about counties included). The 2015 population of 5,651,601 is projected to grow to 7,014,382 in 2040, an increase of 1,362,781 population (24.1 percent growth).

These data provide a picture of the future and how the population size and composition might change. Knowing about how the population size and composition might change is important to most all private and public sector planning needs. These data can help stakeholders gain insights into the size of the workforce 25 years ahead and population distribution by age. The projections help business assess where and how the demand/sales of their products and services might change. The projections provide a basis to set goals and targets for the future. See more about development of these projections in the related Web section.

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metro (MSA) Counties
The following map shows the metro with bold boundary. Counties are labeled with county name and state-county FIPS code. Click graphic for larger view.

— view developed with CV XE GIS software.

Atlanta Metro Population Projections to 2040 by Age
The following table shows 2015 population estimates and projections to 2040 by 5-year age group for the metro. These projections are based on more detailed demographic-economic projections developed by ProximityOne. Click graphic for larger view.

See more about these projections and terms of use.

Atlanta Metro Population Estimates; Components of Change
The following table shows historical Census Bureau-sourced population estimates and components of change for the metro. Census Bureau estimates are updated annually and lag one year behind the current year. The Census Bureau does not develop state, metro or county projections. Click graphic for larger view.

Atlanta Metro by County: Population Characteristics & Trends
Metropolitan areas are defined as one or more contiguous counties based on a set of demographic-economic criteria. Counties comprising the Atlanta metro are shown below. In the related Web table click county code link to view county components of change and estimates by age/race-origin, 2010-2014. Click graphic for larger view.

Atlanta Metro Patterns of Economic Prosperity by Neighborhood
The following map shows ACS 2013 estimates of median household income (MHI) by census tract. See the color/data legend at left of map. Census tracts average 4,000 population and sub-divide counties.

View developed with CV XE GIS software.   See this section to learn about making custom metro maps.

About the Projections and Terms of Use
Current estimates (as of 2015) and projections (to 2040) have been developed by ProximityOne. These data may be used for any purpose provided that ProximityOne is referenced as the source and no fee is charged for their use. These data have no guarantee nor warranty as to accuracy or any other feature. The user is solely responsible for any possible use.

“Demographic Outlook 2015-2040” sections will be presented for other metros in the near future.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data.