Category Archives: Deaths

Examining County Migration: 2010-2016

.. tools and data to examine U.S. by county migration 2010 to 2016 … is the population moving away or into your counties of interest? What are the trends; what is causing the change? What are the characteristics of the population moving in and out? How might this impact your living environment and business?

The total net international migration among all counties 7/1/2010 – 7/1/2016 was 5,641,260, an annual average of 940,432. The sum of net domestic migration among counties is zero by definition, but domestic migration among counties varies radically by size and direction. This section is focused on U.S. by county migration from 2010 to 2016. Migration is one component of change used to develop population estimates. See more about county population estimates and components of change in this related Web section.

Largest 10 Counties Based on 2016 Population
This table shows how domestic migration varies widely among the most populated counties. Use this interactive table to develop your own custom views for counties of interest.

Patterns of Population Change by County, 2010-2016
– the role and impact of migration
The following graphic shows how counties have gained population (blue and green) and lost population (orange and red) during the period 2010 to 2016. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Examining Population Components of Change
– net migration and natural change
Population change can be examined in terms of components of change. There are three components of change: births, deaths, and migration. The change in the population from births and deaths is often combined and referred to as natural increase or natural change. Populations grow or shrink depending on if they gain people faster than they lose them. Examining a county’s unique combination of natural change and migration provides insights into why its population is changing and how quickly the change is occurring.

Using the Interactive Table
– examining migration by county
Use the interactive table to examine characters of counties by states, metro or peer group. The following graphic illustrates use of the interactive table to view net migration for the Houston metro by county. The net migration button was used to select only the net migration columns, FindCBSA button used to show only counties in this metro and the final step was to sort the resulting table on 2016 population. Click graphic for larger view.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

State Population & Components of Change: 2010-2016

.. data and tools to examine how state demographics are changing 2010-2016 … using the new 2016 population and components of changes estimates. The U.S. population changed from 308,758,105 (2010) to 323,127,513 (2016), a change of 14,369,408 (4.7%). Only three states lost population. See the growth rates for DC and the remaining states in this table. Highest growth rates were in D.C., North Dakota, Texas, Utah and Colorado.

Patterns of Population Change, 2010-2016, by State
The following graphic shows the percent population change by state with labels showing the rank among all states based on the percent change in population, 2010-16.

View created with CVGIS and related GIS project. Click graphic for larger view.

Resources to Analyze these Data
Use our tools to view and analyze annual population estimates, 2010 to 2016, rankings and components of change for the U.S., regions and states. Use the interactive table below in this section to view, rank, compare these data. Use the GIS tools and ready-to use project described below in this section to create maps for states and regions of interest. Create thematic maps for any of the fields/measures shown in the interactive table. Change color patterns and labels. Integrate your own data.

Using Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to view, rank, compare, query states based on a selection of demographic measures. The following graphic illustrates how the table can be used. Click graphic for larger view.

The graphic shows the largest 10 states ranked in descending order based on 2016 population. The column “PopChg Rank 10b16” (second from right) shows the rank of this state, among all states, based on the population change from 2010 to 2016. The rightmost column shows the state’s rank for the period based on percent change in population over the period.

Largest 10 States based on 2016 Population

Try it yourself. Use the table to examine state patterns and characteristics based on your selected criteria.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

State and Regional Decision-Making Information

Organized on a state-by-state basis, use tools and geographic, demographic and economic data resources in these sections to facilitate planning and analysis. Updated frequently, these sections provide a unique means to access to multi-sourced data to develop insights into patterns, characteristics and trends on wide-ranging issues. Bookmark the related main Web page; keep up-to-date.

Using these Resources
Knowing “where we are” and “how things have changed” are key factors in knowing about the where, when and how of future change — and how that change might impact you. There are many sources of this knowledge. Often the required data do not knit together in an ideal manner. Key data are available for different types of geography, become available at different points in time and are often not the perfect subject matter. These sections provide access to relevant data and a means to consume the data more effectively than might otherwise be possible. Use these data, tools and resources in combination with other data to perform wide-ranging data analytics. See examples.

Select a State/Area

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
D.C.
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

Topics for each State — with drill-down to census block
Visual pattern analysis tools … using GIS resources
Digital Map Database
Situation & Outlook
Metropolitan Areas
Congressional Districts
Counties
Cities/Places
Census Tracts
ZIP Code Areas
K-12 Education, Schools & School Districts
Block Groups
Census Blocks

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

County Population Trends 2010-2015

.. examining the how and why of U.S. population change by county from 2010 to 2015. This section provides an overview of this topic and provides a summary of tools, interactive table and GIS project, to analyze population change by county using latest Census Bureau estimates data through 2015. These data are used by ProximityOne to develop/update annual county demographic-economic projections. See related Web section for more detail.

Patterns of Population Change by County, 2010-2015
The following graphic shows how counties have gained population (blue and green) and lost population (orange and red) during the period 2010 to 2015. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
.. see related drill-down views of Texas by county

Examining Population Components of Change
Population change can be examined in terms of components of change. There are three components of change: births, deaths, and migration. The change in the population from births and deaths is often combined and referred to as natural increase or natural change. Populations grow or shrink depending on if they gain people faster than they lose them. Examining a county’s unique combination of natural change and migration provides insights into why its population is changing and how quickly the change is occurring.

See more about these topics below:
Natural Increase/Change; birth & deaths
Migration; net international, net domestic, net migration

Interactive Analysis
Use the interactive table to view population trends and components of change for selected counties. The following graphic illustrates how the table can be used.
• Click the ShowAll button (below table)
• Click the Pop Min & Max button .. refreshes table
    to show only counties with 2015 population 250,000-300,000
• Click ChgCols button to show all 2010-15 change columns
• Click PopChg 2010-15 header column to sort.

Resulting view:
Among these counties, Horry County, SC has the largest 2010-15 population change. The peer group counties are shown in rank order.

– Click graphic for larger view.
– experiment with settings of interest.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

State Population 2014 & Demographic Change

.. state population dynamics are changing. Learn more about how states are changing and why — using tools and resources reviewed here. Examine how these changes might impact you.

Births as one component of change … births in the U.S. for the years 2011 through 2014 are estimated at 3.97M, 3.94M, 3.96M and 3.96M (birth rates of 12.80, 12.58, 12.54, 12.46). This relatively flat pattern varies substantially by state and region. The Northeast, Midwest and West regions experienced declining births 2010-14, while the South region had a modest increase. View extensive detail on the population and population components of change in the interactive table below. Sort, rank compare states and regions based on single years or change over time. Use our GIS project to visually examine patterns. Details below. These new 2014 state population and components of change (births, deaths, migration) estimates were released December 23 and will update with 2015 estimates in late 2015. See the related Web section with interactive table and more details.

State Migration Patterns, 2010-2014
The following view shows patterns of total cumulative state net migration for the years 2011-2014 (7/1/10 to 7/1/14). See inset legend. The label shows total state net migration for the period as a percent of 2014 total population. In expanded view, the top label shows the total state net migration for the period and the bottom label shows total state net migration for the period as a percent of 2014 total population. Use the GIS project (details below) to create views with other population and population components of change or rates for any year or year group. Label areas are desired. Add other layers such as regions or divisions. Add your own data.

View created with CV XE GIS. Click graphic for larger view with more detail.

Importance of these Data; Projecting Future Patterns
These data are important. They tell stakeholders how the population is changing, when, and where by state, multi-state regions and for the U.S.; overall. Annual measures of population change provide insights into recent patterns and how the population might change during the next few years. These data do not, in general, tell us why the population is changing. More detailed estimates of state and sub-state 2014 population by age, gender and race origin will be released between now and mid-2015.

These historical data, based on facts or near-facts, are used in models to develop projections of how the population size, characteristics and distribution might evolve in the years ahead. The projections need to be updated annually to reflect the more factually based estimates. The models endeavor to capture/specify the why of population change and how change manifests itself by age, gender and race/origin — and the all important where and when.

Selected Top 10 State Rankings

Using the GIS Resources: Flexible Visual Pattern Analysis
1. Install the ProximityOne CV XE GIS
… run the CV XE GIS installer
… take all defaults during installation
2. Download the U.S. by State Population 2014 GIS project fileset
… requires ProximityOne User Group ID (join now, no fee)
… unzip U.S. State Population GIS project files to local folder c:\popest
3. Open the c:\popest\stpop2014.gis project
… after completing the above steps, click File>Open>Dialog
… open the file named c:\popest\stpop2014.gis
4. Done. The start-up view is similar to the graphic shown at the top of this section.

Using the Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to view, rank, query and compare states based on detailed characteristics. The following graphic illustrates use of the interactive table to rank states in descending order based on population change 2010 to 2014 (see pointer in rightmost column).

Click graphic for larger view.

Support Using these Resources
Learn more about demographic economic data and related analytical tools. Join us in a Decision-Making Information Web session. There is no fee for these one-hour Web sessions. Each informal session is focused on a specific topic. The open structure also provides for Q&A and discussion of application issues of interest to participants.

Model-Based County Population Estimates

.. determining “where we are now” and “about recent trends” … what is the natural increase (population change due to births less deaths only, without considering migration) in the population from year to year or over several years, for counties/regions of interest? Does the county net migration reflect population moving in or out? Is there a migration pattern/trend? What factors are responsible for migration? To know about these patterns, characteristics and trends, requires annual, up-to-date population estimates.

Population Estimates & Components of Change
The following graphic shows population estimates and components of change for Harris County, TX. Similar profiles are available for all counties; read on.

Click graphic for larger view

Census Bureau Model-Based Population Estimates
Each year the Census Bureau develops model-based estimates of the population by county. The post-census estimates are intended to provide updates to Census 2019. The estimates provide an update and more current picture of the population size, composition and how it is changing. In March 2014, the U.S. by county July 1, 2013 population estimates and components of change became available. In June 2014, the U.S. by county July 1, 2013 population estimates with breakouts by age, gender and race/origin will become available. The model-based estimates, also referred to as synthetic estimates, are separate from the annual American Community Survey (ACS) data that provides similar annual population estimates.

First of Four Sections
This section is the first of four parts focused on the structure/content, access, use and evaluation of the annual Census Bureau model-based county population estimates. This section is focused on the structure/content and access to the population estimates and components of change. The next section (June) will focus on age and race/ethnicity detail. The third section (July) will focus on use: interpretation, geospatial/visual pattern analysis/mapping with GIS tools and time series/trend analysis. The fourth section (August) will focus on comparing the Census Bureau model-based estimates to alternative estimates.

Population Estimates and Components of Change
Model-based population estimates are developed using the population identity:

P[t] = P[t-1] + B[t-1,t] – D[t-1,t] + M[t-1,t]

The population at time t (July 1, 2013) is defined as the population at time t-1 (July 1, 2012) plus births (B) occurring from time t-1 to time t, less deaths (D) occurring from time t-1 to time t, plus net migration (M) occurring from time t-1 to time t. Migration is defined as the sum of the net international migration (MI) plus net domestic migration (MD):

M[t-1,t] = MI[t-1,t] + MD[t-1,t]

Population Estimates & Components of Change Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to examine the Census 2010 population (4/1/2010 column) and annual population estimates (7/1/2010 through 7/1/2013) for all counties and metros. Each row presents the same population estimates and components of change data as shown in the profile at the top of this section. The standalone county profile will be expanded in related (upcoming) sections to show 1) alternative estimates and components of change and 2) addition of population estimates by age, gender and race/origin.

County profiles are available for any county by clicking the link in the interactive table. The Census Bureau model-based estimates will update with 2014 estimates scheduled to become available in March 2015. While these tables show data developed by the Census Bureau, most of these data are available only in data files that require processing to organize the data into a usable form.

Support & DMI Web Sessions
Learn more about using resources described in this section. Join us in a Decision-Making Information Web session. There is no fee for these one-hour Web sessions. Each informal session is focused on a specific topic. The open structure also provides for Q&A and discussion of application issues of interest to participants. We can address your specific questions about using metro and county demographic economic data and related applications.

 

State Components of Population Change

How are the demographics of states changing … and why? Based on the new 2013 population estimates and components of change, the population percent natural increase ranged from -0.55% (West Virginia) to 12.5% (Utah) during the period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013. This is one example of insights into the components of population change that can be determined using the interactive table in this related section to view, compare, rank state population estimates and components of change. More about these estimates.

Examining Components of Change Patterns
Population dynamics are shaped by the components of change — births, deaths and migration. The next several thematic map views show patterns of population components of change by state. Labels show the average for the years 2011-2013. Click graphic for a larger map view that also shows legend. These views were developed using the CV XE GIS software and related GIS project. More about using these resources. Scroll section …

State Average Birth Rate; 2011-2013

State Average Death Rate; 2011-2013

State Average Natural Increase Rate; 2011-2013

State Average International Migration Rate; 2011-2013

State Average Domestic Migration Rate; 2011-2013

State Average Net Migration Rate; 2011-2013

State Population Percent Change 2010-2013


Visual Analysis using GIS Tools
Use the CV XE GIS state population estimates GIS project to create thematic pattern maps such as shown in the above graphics. Develop thematic pattern maps using any of the items included in the interactive table. Members of the ProximityOne User Group (join now, no fee) may download the ready-to-use GIS project.