Tag Archives: projections

TractWatch — Examining Small Area Change

Understanding the demographic-economic landscape for small area geography and how it is changing is vital for many stakeholders. Businesses and other organizations need to know how their market/service areas are changing … getting answers to questions like knowing about recent trends, where we are now and the how/where/how much things might change in the future.

Examining Tract Change
The following view shows census tracts (black boundary) located in the northeast Houston, TX area. Tracts are labeled with 2017 population estimates and percent population change from 2010 to 2017. Tract geography and characteristics are shown in context of three cities/places — Houston (orange cross-hatch), Humble (blue) and Atascocita CDP (green). It is easy to see what census tracts intersect with what cities and where. The pointer/hand is located in census tract 48-201-240902, partly intersecting with Humble city. The tract 2017 population of 12,984 reflects an increase of 10.4% since 2010. The dark brown bold boundary at the top of this tract is the Harris County, TX boundary.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
.. create views like this for any area in the U.S.; add your own data.

TractWatch tells us which tracts in a region of interest changed during the past year based on quarterly observable data with only a one quarter lag.

Census Tracts & TractWatch
TractWatch is a new tool/service focused on examining recent demographic-business change for each census tract. These approximate 74,000 geographic areas cover the U.S. wall-to-wall and averaged 4,000 population as of Census 2010. Tracts have a generally stable geography between decennial censuses and are coterminous with county boundaries. Tracts cover the U.S. with more than a 2-to-1 ratio compared to ZIP code areas (see tract-ZIP relationship table).

Integrated with Situation & Outlook
TractWatch insights are developed through the use of the ProximityOne Situation & Outlook (S&O) database and information system — a part of S&O demographic-economic estimates and projections developed and updated annually. The 2017 vintage tract estimates and projections (annual data) cover the period 2010 through 2022 (5-year projection).

TractWatch – Monitoring Change
As a part of the S&O annual estimates and projections development, a range of measures are updated quarterly at the census tract level. Quarterly data are developed that include population, housing units, vacant units, households and business establishments.

There is only a one-quarter lag in the availability of observable census tract data. For example, observable 2017Q1 data can be added to the S&O database in July 2017. Data are analyzed and converted into a TractWatch national dataset.

Situation & Outlook Reports
The Situation & Outlook Reports (S&O Reports) are updated weekly, for the U.S. and each county, metro and state. TractWatch is a part of the “Recent Change and Outlook” S&O Report section and updated quarterly. See schedule of updates the shows when TractWatch is updated.

The S&O Reports (metro and county) Recent Change and Outlook section includes a list of census tracts which have shown significant change over the past year for that geography. A table of typically 10-to-25 key tracts are listed in a table with selected demographic-business change attributes.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Regional Economic Information System: Annual Updates

.. which counties are experiencing the fastest economic growth? by what economic component? what does this look like on a per capita level?

.. access & analyze economic characteristics and patterns by county and state .. annual time series 1969 through 2015 with projections.  Personal income is the income available to persons for consumption expenditures, taxes, interest payments, transfer payments to governments and the rest of the world, or for saving. Use the interactive table to examine characteristics of counties and regions of interest. The table provides access to 31 personal income related summary measures. These data are a selection of a broader set of annual time series data from the Regional Economic Information System (REIS). REIS is a part of the ProximityOne State & Regional Income & Product Accounts (SRIPA) and Situation & Outlook (S&O) featuring current (2016) estimates and demographic-economic projections. Go to table.

Visual Analysis of Per Capita Personal Income Patterns
The following map shows the Houston metro (view profile) with bold brown boundary. Counties are labeled with county name and 2014 per capita personal income.

Click graphic for larger view. View developed with CV XE GIS software.

Per Capita Personal Income Change 2008-2014 by County
.. relative to U.S 2008-2014 change

Click graphic for larger view. View developed with CV XE GIS software.

Interactive Analysis – County or State Profiles
The following graphic illustrate use of the interactive table to view an economic profile for Harris County, TX. Use the table to examine characteristics of any county or state. Click graphic for larger view.

Interactive Analysis
– comparing per capita personal income across counties
The next graphics illustrates use of the interactive table to rank/compare per capita personal income across counties. Rank/compare states. Choose any of the economic profile items. Click graphic for larger view.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

K-12 Schools Data Analytics

.. resources to analyze patterns and trends .. how to improve K-12 education opportunities and outcomes? How might the K-12 improvements impact your community? Higher education? What resources and methods can be used to better understand where we are … and where we are going? How can we use data to better understand patterns, where and how change will occur … and how change will impact us? Have we got the best/right data to answer the right questions? Data Analytics can help K-12 schools, school districts, leadership and stakeholders answer these questions and better achieve visions and goals.

This section provides illustrative data analytics views and application examples using a K-12 school district Geographic Information System (GIS) project and related datasets. The McKinney ISD, TX school district, located in the Dallas metro area, is used. A similar data analytics project/fileset can be developed for any school district. The applications use the ProximityOne CV XE GIS software. Most of the files and layers used in the GIS project are described here. Statewide GIS base K-12/community projects/datasets are available for many states; seeMissouri

The ProximityOne Data Analytics team develops the GIS project and related datasets. The software and data are electronically installed on the school/school district/community computers. Knowledge of how to develop the datasets and GIS project are not required by school/school district staff. Specialized staff are not required to operate the software, use the GIS tools and data or perform data analytics applications. Having staff available with these skill sets can extend productivity and results from use of the resources.

McKinney ISD in Context of Counties/Region
McKinney ISD shown with bold black boundary. McKinney city shown as hatched area. Urban census blocks: orange fill pattern; understanding urban/rural status of geography important for many reasons. See more about K-12 schools and urban/rural geography.

  — view created using CV XE GIS and associated LAES GIS Project
— click graphic for larger showing details.

Zoom-in View of McKinney ISD & K-12 Schools
See school by type/level in legend at left of map. View, compare, query, rank K-12 schools of interest using this interactive table. Extensive school level data are integrated and accessible but not shown in these views.

  — click graphic for larger showing details.

Students Shown by Red Markers
Student markers/locations are added to the GIS project by first geocoding the student address data. A shapefile is created and added to the GIS project. Extensive student level data (demographic, performance, other) are integrated and accessible but not shown in these views. Optionally place a query on the students layer to view/analyze those meeting a certain condition such as attending a specific school, enrolled in a certain grade/grade range, having specified test results, etc.

  — click graphic for larger showing details.

Elementary School Zones
See ES Zone layer (blue boundary) at left in legend panel; choose any/all zones. School zone boundaries can facilitate analysis of students attending associated school. The GIS project can facilitate analysis of alternative redistricting plans and enrollment distributions change.

  — click graphic for larger showing details.

Further Zoom-in View
ES Zones labeled with ES Zone name; census block layer turned off (unchecked). The ability to easily navigate across geography or add detail can create visual pattern analysis not possible using tabular data.

  — click graphic for larger showing details.

Using Site Analysis; Focus on Walker ES Zone
Using the Site Analysis operation, a query placed on student layer so only students attending this school are shown (red markers). The CV XE Site Analysis tool used to select a small group of students (cross-hatched in circle). See summary in grid at right; total students 51; 5 students are Hispanic. In the grid, the total number of students is shown with the name “Weight” — the field name of the database item used to dynamically total/sum/count the number of students. In this example, the value of the weight field is always 1 (thus when summed it shows the total number of students). The field could be set to values varying by individual student for a measure such as performance or participation.

  — click graphic for larger showing details.

Using Site Analysis; Focus on Walker ES Zone
Counting all students enrolled in Walker ES; 532 students; 69 Hispanic.

  — click graphic for larger showing details.

Using Site Analysis; Focus on Walker ES Zone; Further Zoom-in 
This view shows all students; note some are not selected as they are residents of Walker ES zone but do not attend that school. Census block layer has been checked on; census blocks are labeled with Census 2010 population.

  — click graphic for larger showing details.

Thematic Pattern Map; Gini Coefficient by Block Group; McKinney ISD Region
Patterns of income inequality as shown by Gini Coefficient by census block group. Block groups are the smallest geography for which richer demographic-economic data are available (from ACS). See more about Gini Coefficient and Income Inequality.

  — click graphic for larger showing legend details.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity by Census Tract
View shows Median Household Income by census tract. Approximately 74,000 census tracts, averaging 4,000 population, cover the U.S. wall-to-wall. The graphic shown below illustrates integrating census tract/neighborhood level demographic-economic data from American Community Survey with attributes of students, schools and other geography.

  — click graphic for larger showing legend details.

Examining Demographic-Economic Characteristics for a Study Area — Study Area Part 1
The view below shows use of the Site Analysis tool to select a set of 5 census tracts in the vicinity of McKinney Boyd HS (blue triangle marker). Any number of tracts can be selected, contiguous or otherwise. The subject matter items to be summarized are D001_13 (total population), D002_13 (male) and D002_13 (female) — ACS 2013 5-year estimates. More or different items could have been selected. The grid at lower right shows aggregated (across 5 tract) values for these three items.

  — click graphic for larger showing legend details.

Database Operations — Export/View Tract Dataset for Study Area — Study Area Part 2
The view below shows the tracts dataset records in a CV XE grid/spreadsheet based on the above Site Analysis operation. This dataset extract is generated, and grid populated, when the View File button is clicked in the Site Analysis operation (see in Part 1 graphic at right). This grid displays the records selected in the above operation. These selected data records can optionally be exported for use with other software.

  — click graphic for larger showing legend details.

Demographic-Economic Profiles for Study Area — Study Area Part 3
Summary demographic-economic profiles are generated for the above 5 census tract study area by clicking the Report button in the Site Analysis operation (see Part 1 graphic at right).
View the McKinney Boyd HS Area 1 Analysis Reports/HTML profiles generated:
General Demographics (DEP1)more about these data; interactive table
Social Characteristics (DEP2)more about these data; interactive table
Economic Characteristics (DEP3)more about these data; interactive table
Housing Characteristics (DEP4)more about these data; interactive table

Patterns of Percent Children in Poverty by School District
The graphic shown below illustrates using visual analysis tools to compare/contrast school district characteristics in region/state. View, compare, query, rank school districts of interest using this interactive table. Data used in the graphic shown below are derived from the from ACS 2013 5-year estimates.

  — click graphic for larger showing legend details.

Children’s Demographics & Living Environment
Most demographic-economic data are developed for the whole population in an area. Data from the annually updatedACS School District Tabulation can help analysts and leadership better understand demographic-economic characteristics of children, and gain insights into needs, in a school district. See the McKinney ISD Children’s Demographic-Economic Profile by Universe of Enrollment.

Predictive Analytics; Demographic-Economic Projections
ProximityOne develops demographic-economic estimates and projections for individual school districts and component area geography such as census tracts. These data help schools and school districts examine how enrollment and the population in the district might change over the next several years. Projections are developed in several ways: by single year of age by gender by race/origin, by type of enrollment (public school, private school, not enrolled), and by demographic-economic characteristics.

Roads & the Digital Map Database
The street/road network used in the GIS project is from an augmented version of the TIGER digital map database. Each street/road segment runs from intersection to intersection creating opportunities for routing and transportation management. The CV XE GIS identify tool is used to click-on a street segment (see pointer). A mini-profile for this segment is displayed as shown in the graphic. The mini-profile shows that this is the 5500 block of Petunia Dr.

  — click graphic for larger showing legend details.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data.