Census 2020 – First Results

.. the first results of Census 2020, the apportionment data, were released on April 26, 2021.  Based on the decennial census, the United States total resident population increased from 308,745,538 (2010) to 331,449,281 (2020), a change of 22,703,743 (7.3%). For now, these data should be trusted and assumed accurate.  The apportionment data provide only total population counts at the state level.  More will be revealed about the accuracy of these data when the redistricting data are released in August 2021.

Apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives
Congressional apportionment is the process of dividing the 435 members, or seats, in the House of Representatives among the 50 states based on the population data from the decennial census. See more about congressional districts and demographic-economic characteristics. See this related web section for detailed information on apportionment. Use the interactive table to view/analyze the Census 2010 and Census 2020 apportionment data. The following view shows patterns of congressional seats based on the decennial census. Labels show the number of seats based on the 2020 Census. Color patterns show the change in seats, 2010 to 2020.

Census 2020: the Process & Challenges
Counting the total population and selected population attributes in a pandemic is not only challenging but not possible.  During 2020, as the data were collected, it seemed good news that more than two-thirds of the potential respondents had completed the questionnaire.  But then the questions set in.  Bureau public announcements frequently made reference to the number or housing units and the number of households (occupied housing units) “accounted for” reaching 90 percent and progressively more.  By observation, using administrative record data, and other methods, housing units can be much more easily counted than the population and population attributes.  Likewise, determining the number households is  easier than determining the population count and characteristics.

The fact that the state population counts were unexpectedly different from the Bureau’s model based estimates is troubling.  We seek more assurance that the count of  population and population characteristics — by location — are as represented by the apportionment data.

Census Bureau 2020 Model-Based Estimates
New Census Bureau sourced U.S. by county model-based population estimates by age/gender/race-origin as of July 1, 2020 will be released by the Bureau in May 2021.  These estimates are independent of Census 2020 and make use of methods used annually throughout the 2010-2020 period.  An upcoming blog will report on ProximityOne’s analysis of these estimates in comparison with the Census 2020 data.

ProximityOne Estimates & Projections to 2060
ProximityOne annual demographic estimates and projections 2010-2060 by county will begin a new update cycle in May 2021.  The schedule is shown here.  

Starting with the May updates, two base projection series will be developed and progressively updated: one controlled to the Census 2020 data and one based on continued use of 2020 model-based estimates. As more information is released from Census 2020. Follow this blog for more information on evolving developments.

Learn more — Join me in the Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Accessing & Using GeoDemographics Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Redistricting & Census 2020

.. most states will not have new redistricting plans until after Census 2020. Redistricting is the process of developing a redistricting plan for 2 or more areas (districts) disjoint and contiguous that are contained within the collective area of all districts based on some criteria. Redistricting is perhaps most familiar with regard to congressional districts and state legislative districts based on a set of demographic characteristics … but may apply to many other types of geographies. This post briefly reviews the Census 2020 & Redistricting Program.

Redrawing the Pennsylvania 115th Congressional Districts
The following views show Pennsylvania 115th Congressional Districts in their gerrymandered configuration (old) and the redrawn configuration (February 2018, new). Counties shown with light gray boundary. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser window for best quality view.
Pennsylvania 115th CDs — Old

– View developed using CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Pennsylvania 115th CDs — New, redrawn February 2018

– View developed using CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Census 2020 & Redistricting Program
The ProximityOne Census 2020 & Redistricting Program enables participants to engage now in preparation for redistricting based on Census 2020. Use resources and processes provided by ProximityOne and the Congressional Districts/State Legislative Districts Group (CDSLD) .. participate in hands-on redistricting for your areas of interest. We start now using Census 2010 redistricting data, current congressional districts and state legislative districts, and related data/tools. Progressively, we move toward accessing the live Census 2020 redistricting data (March 2021). There is no cost to participate. See more about the Census 2020 & Redistricting Program at http://proximityone.com/cen2020_redistricting.htm. Join the CDSLD Group via this form to receive updates on the program and begin participation.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Data Analytics Web Session, every Tuesday, where we review access to and use of data, tools and methods relating to the Census 2020 redistricting Program. We review current topical issues and data — and how you can access/use tools/data to meet your needs/interests.

About the Author
Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Tracking Language Use and the Decennial Census

Since 1790, the decennial census has been arguably the single most important U.S. geographic-demographic-economic statistical data resource. Data from these decennial censuses are in daily widespread use for analysis and decision-making. The companion TIGER/Line digital map database is the underlying geographic database enabling most Web browser maps. The TIGER data helped spawn the development of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and visual data analysis.

This section illustrates use of the New York Times Chronicle tool to track language use relating to the decennial census. The Chronicle tool can be used to visualize language use in the New York Times news coverage throughout its history. The following graphics show results of using the Chronicle tool. There are additional features of the tool not shown here, notably lists of accessible NYT stories. Click graphics for larger view.

Decennial Census — all references

Decennial Census — 1960 through 2010

More about Census 2010

Redistricting – Reapportionment — a basic reason for the decennial census

More about congressional districts … state legislative districts

Asian – Hispanic — race/origin; decennial census is source of most detailed data on these topics

More about Asian population … Hispanic population

Integration – Segregation – Diversity — topics making widespread use of decennial census data

More about neighborhood diversity … USATODAY diversity analyses

American Community Survey — “rolling annual census” introduced in 2004

More about ACS 2013

Exactly how the decennial census has been used in stories cannot be effectively determined using the Chronicle tool. The decennial census lead-up and process of conducting and tabulation data is the basis of many stories. The use of decennial census data is yet another basis for stories.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data.