Examining the Situation & Outlook

.. this blog focuses on topics regarding the current situation and outlook .. what is happening now, historical trends and into the future .. visit Demographics 2060 .. geographic, demographic and economic characteristics for wide-ranging types of geography .. what will change where, when, by how much .. and how change might it impact you .. data resources and tools enabling a deeper dive; relating to decision-making. Get email updates when posted, click button at right.

Analyzing Patterns of COVID-19: Part 1

.. as COVID-19 impacts our demographics, economy and way of life, we look for answers about where we are and what lies ahead.  Here we review data on COVID-19 incidence and tools to analyze those data. In the coming days, weeks, we plan to augment these tools and data. See more below.  See related Web section for more detail.

Use new resources to examine/analyze patterns of COVID-19 incidence in context of related demographic-economic characteristics. Resources include the narrative/interpretative portion, interactive table and GIS tools and project/files. Data and tools are updated daily. There is no fee to use any of these resources.

COVID-19 Incidence by County in the Atlanta Metro Area
The following graphic shows patterns of COVID-19 incidence (number of cases per 1,000 population) by county. See color patterns in the inset legend. This view shows counties labeled with name and number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Use the GIS project described below to create variations of this view and develop similar views for any metro.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

The GIS resources and interactive table below makes use of the COVID-19 confirmed cases data updated daily by the New York Times. See more about the New York Times U.S. tracking page.

COVID-19 Incidence — U.S. by County
Similar to the above view, the following graphic shows patterns of COVID-19 incidence (number of cases per 1,000 population) by county for the U.S. See color patterns in the inset legend. This view shows counties labeled with name and number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Use the GIS project described below to create variations of this view and develop similar views for any metro. Click graphic for larger, more detailed view. Expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Using GIS Tools & Resources
Use the Geographic Information System (GIS) CV XE GIS software and GIS project to view maps and geospatially analyze patterns COVID-19 cases in context of related demographic-economic data. The GIS project automatically opens with the following view:

.. see details about using the mapping/GIS resources.
.. create map views for your areas of interest.

COVID-19 Confirmed Cases by County Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to view, rank, query compare patterns of COVID-19 cases. See related demographic-economic interactive tables.

The following static graphic illustrates use of the table to view daily patterns of COVID-19 cases in Cobb County, GA.

Use the interactive table to examine counties of interest.

Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Census 2020 Residential Address Counts by Block

.. using Census 2020 residential address count data to examine change since 2010 .. the Census Bureau has released preliminary Census 2020 residential address counts by Census 2010 census block. These data, count of residential addresses and group quarters addresses, reflect updates as of October 2019 and do not represent final Census 2020 counts. The data will continue to be updated to support Census 2020. See related Web section with more detail and updates.

Importance and Use
These data are of immediate value in determining and analyzing how the number of housing units have changed, 2010 to 2019. Since the data are at the census block level, they may be aggregated to any other Census-defined summary level/type of geographic area such as block group, tract, ZIP code, city, county, school district, etc. These data are also important as they give us a “year in advance look” at how small area demographics are changing since 2010. Before this, the most recent census block data were from Census 2010. A lot has happened in many areas. These data provide insights into that change. The Census 2020 block level data will be released in early 2021 for Census 2020 census block geography. So, another important feature of these data is that they are summarized for Census 2010 census block boundaries. Census 2010 and 2020 block boundaries may differ, particularly in areas experiencing larger demographic growth/change. An important limitation is that they are counts, subject to change as the Census data are collected/tabulated.

Comparing Census 2010 Housing Units with Census 2020 Address Counts
The following graphic shows patterns of Census 2010 housing counts with the Census 2020 (late 2019 vintage) residential address counts by census block. This view is focused on census tract 3608100700 (tract 000700) in Queens County, NY (code shown near center of graphic). Individual blocks are labeled with block code (4 digits) with the Census 2010 housing units (yellow label) and Census 2020 residential address count (green label) shown below the block code. As an example, the block located at the pointer has block code 3006 (or full national scope unique block code 36-081-00700-3006) with a Census 2010 count 44 housing units and a Census 2020 (late 2019 count) of 232 residential addresses. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser window to full screen for best quality view.

.. view created with ProximityOne CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.

More About Using these Data
We have summarized these data at the census tract level and are evaluating their use, in combination with other data, to develop current estimates and projections to 2025.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Relating ZIP Codes and Census Tracts

.. what census tracts intersect with a ZIP code of interest? There are many reasons for the underlying the need to convert/equivalence ZIP codes to/from census tracts. Some organizations have to provide census tract codes for addresses/ZIP codes of clients to be in compliance with a law or regulation. Some organizations have addresses/ZIP codes of clients/locations for which they would like to determine the corresponding census tract codes to analyze census tract demographics. This post reviews tools and options for these operations. See related Web section to access interactive table and learn more about mapping and geospatially relating these two geographies.

Phoenix/Scottsdale, AZ ZIP Code-Census Tract Relationship
The following graphic illustrates the relationship between ZIP code area 85258 (orange fill pattern) with census tracts (green boundaries and geocode labels).
(StCtyTract=04013216813).
.. view created with ProximityOne CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.

Create your own maps of areas relating ZIP codes and census tract, in context of other geography. Use the CV XE GIS with shapefiles.

Using the Interactive Table
Use the ZIP code to census tract interactive table (opens new page) to answer questions such as:
• Which census tracts intersect with a ZIP code of interest?
• Which ZIP code(s) intersect with census tract(s) of interest?
• What is the Census 2010 population for a census tract and ZIP code combination?

The interactive equivalence/look-up table shows a row for each unique combination of a Census 2010 ZIP code area and Census 2010 census tract. The start-up view is sorted on the State-County-Tract column (StCtyTract). View ZIP codes in one state using the State selection button. To locate a ZIP code of interest, either use the Find ZIP query or sort on the ZIP code column and then scroll down the table until the ZIP of interest is located.

Example. Click Find ZIP button using the interactive table (opens new page) to view only the tracts intersecting with ZIP code 85258 (as shown in map view above). The Location 1 marker (see pointer in map) is located in the area intersecting ZIP code 85258 and census tract 2168.13. The refreshed table view is shown by the graphic below. There are nine tracts intersecting with this ZIP code; see the tract codes in the table.

Try this for a ZIP of interest:
• View the interactive table (opens new page).
• Click the Showall button below table.
• Key in your 5-digit ZIP code in edit box where 85258 now shows.
• Click Find ZIP button.
• Table refreshes showing only tracts intersecting with this ZIP code.

Scope of Tracts and ZIPs in Table
There are 150,806 rows in the table, each showing a unique combination of a census tract (73,057 Census 2010 tracts) and ZIP code area (33,120 Census 2010 ZCTAs). Each row represents an intersection of the specified census tract and ZIP code area and corresponds to a geographic area of one census block or more. The total population and housing units values have been derived by summing component census block values. The sum of the population column is 308,745,538, the United States Census 2010 total population.

Situation & Outlook Weekly Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook web session to discuss more details about demographic-economic estimates and projections.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Neighborhood Median Family Income: Measuring Economic Well-Being

.. Median Family Income ($MFI) and Median Household Income ($MHI) are two measures of economic well-being. Based on the 2018 American Community Survey 1-year (ACS) data, the U.S. 2018 $MFI was estimated to be $76,401 while the $MHI was estimated to be $61,937 .. both in 2018/current dollars. Create insights into patterns of well-being by neighborhood using geospatial analysis. $MFI patterns are illustrated by the following thematic pattern map.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity by Neighborhood/Census Tract
The following view shows patterns of $MFI by census tract for the inner beltway area of Houston/Harris County, TX. Income interval color patterns are shown in the inset legend. Tracts are labeled with $MFI. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser window for best quality view. Larger view shows tracts labeled with tract code. It is easy to see how west Houston and east Houston areas differ.

– view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.
– these $MFI data are based on the 2018 ACS 5-year estimates.

This section focuses on $MFI but could just as well focus on $MHI and yet other related income measures. $MFI will almost always be greater that $MHI, generally by a large margin. See the U.S. 2018 $MFI and $MHI in context of related demographic-economic measure here. See more about the distinctions/definitions of families and and households below.

The ACS data are a unique source of income and related data at the neighborhood or sub-county level. View more about accessing and using the 2018 ACS 5-year estimates.

Family Definition
A family is a group of two people or more (one of whom is the householder) related by birth, marriage, or adoption and residing together; all such people (including related subfamily members) are considered as members of one family. The number of families is equal to the number of family households. However, the count of family members differs from the count of family household members because family household members include any non-relatives living in the household.

Related … an unmarried partner, also known as a domestic partner, is specifically defined as a person who shares a close personal relationship with the reference person. … Same-sex unmarried-partner families or households – reference person and unmarried partner are both male or female.

Household Definition
A household consists of all the people who occupy a housing unit. A house, an apartment or other group of rooms, or a single room, is regarded as a housing unit when it is occupied or intended for occupancy as separate living quarters; that is, when the occupants do not live with any other persons in the structure and there is direct access from the outside or through a common hall.

A household includes the related family members and all the unrelated people, if any, such as lodgers, foster children, wards, or employees who share the housing unit. A person living alone in a housing unit, or a group of unrelated people sharing a housing unit such as partners or roomers, is also counted as a household. The count of households excludes group quarters. There are two major categories of households, “family” and “nonfamily”.

Situation & Outlook Weekly Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook web session to discuss more details about demographic-economic estimates and projections.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Climate Change & the Demographic-Economic Outlook

.. it is startling that many do not accept the reality that climate change is upon us. Climate change is, right now, affecting the demographic-economic outlook … how things will change in the next fifty years and how this change might impact each of us. A challenge is to determine how to best integrate the right set of data, variables, into our cause and effect predictive models. By doing so, we improve the quality and accuracy of projections. We can better examine what-if scenarios. Business decision-making and policy-making implications are enormous.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has recently taken the position that climate change has become a defining factor in companies’ long-term prospects.

Climate Risk Is Investment Risk
Investment strategies mean exiting/avoiding some investments that present a high sustainability-related risk, such as coal producers and new/expanded investment products that screen fossil fuels. Many others.

The impact of these types of investment risks are already appearing. While the stock market continues an unprecedented rally, energy sector companies are not performing as well. This impacts the metros/areas where they operate affecting the economic base and impacting the population/housing growth and composition.

Climate Risk Affects Personal/Family Decision-Making
As Larry Fink/Blackrock notes, what will happen to the 30-year mortgage – a key building block of finance – if lenders can’t estimate the impact of climate risk over such a long timeline? What if there is no viable market for flood or fire insurance in impacted areas? Happening now. What happens to inflation, and in turn interest rates, if the cost of food climbs from drought and flooding? Risks to human health and and migration due to climate change are already being experienced.

The Situation & Outlook — Improving Model Specification
This is our challenge — modeling economic change where emerging markets see their productivity impacted due to extreme heat and other climate impacts .. modeling migration of people and businesses being impacted by climate change .. modeling the housing infrastructure being implemented by climate change .. determining how and where climate change might impact personal income and GDP by county. In many cases, because of the way and what data are collected, it is difficult to sort out what part of migration, business change and other key measures are due in what part to climate change.

Quantification of climate change, and new model-based cause and effect specifications, will be reflected in the 2020 ProximityOne Situation & Outlook demographic-economic projections to 2060. For the first time, and on a continuing basis, we and our clients will be able to examine the quantified impact of climate change down to the county level of geography. This is now a topic included in the weekly Situation & Outlook web sessions.

Situation & Outlook Weekly Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook web session to discuss more details about demographic-economic estimates and projections.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

U.S. & World Population, 2020

.. changing demographics .. the U.S. population stands 330,222,422 on January 1, 2020 .. an increase of 1,991,085, 0.61%, from a year ago. The April 1, 2010 Census population was 308,758,105.


 
In January 2020, the United States experiences one birth every eight seconds and one death every 11 seconds.

.. the net international migration adds one person to the U.S. population every 34 seconds. The combination of births, deaths and net international migration will increase the U.S. population by one person every 19 seconds.

The projected world population on January 1, 2020, is 7,621,018,958, an increase of 77,684,873, or 1.03%, from a year earlier. During January 2020, 4.3 births and 1.9 deaths are expected worldwide every second.

Kickoff of Census-Sourced Vintage 2019 Population Estimates Program
Starting in December of each year, the Census Bureau develops official population estimates for July of that year. In 2020, the Bureau will progressively release population estimates with greater subject matter detail for more detailed subnational geography. These model-based estimates will be completed in June 2020 for incorporated places.

The July 2019 estimates for the U.S. and states were just released in December 2019. These estimates reflect that the natural Increase dropped below 1 million for the first time in decades due to fewer births and more deaths.

The July 1, 2019, U.S. population estimate is 328,239,523, growing by 0.5% between 2018 and 2019, or 1,552,022 people. Annual growth peaked at 0.73% this decade in the period between 2014 and 2015. The growth between 2018 and 2019 is a continuation of a multiyear slowdown since that period. More detail on U.S. and state trends will be reviewed in a subsequent post.

Population Projections & Subnational Demographics
ProximityOne uses these Census-sourced historical annal data to develop current estimates and projections to 2060. See about projections and more geographic detail in the Demographics 2060 section.

Demographic-Economic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Examining How Metro GDP is Changing

.. which metros had the largest 2018 real GDP? How did they change since 2010? How to they compare on a per capita basis? What about metros of interest to you? Read on …

As an investor, business or stakeholder in a metro, it is important to know how and where the economy is changing … and how one or selected metros relate to the U.S. and other metros. Is metro X changing in a different direction than metro Y? By how much, why and is there a pattern? What does the healthcare sector, for example, contribute to a metro’s gross domestic product (GDP)? How does it compare to peer metros? How is the healthcare industry trending? Metro GDP data can provide insights and answers to these important questions.  See related main Web page.

In 2018, per capita real gross domestic product (GDP) in MSAs ranged from $19,299 (The Villages, FL MSA) to $196,277 (Midland, TX MSA). The percent change in per capita real GDP by metro, 2010 to 2018 ranged from -24% (New Orleans-Metairie, LA MSA) to 126.6% (Midland, TX MSA). Use the interactive table to view these and related data.

Change in Per Capita Real GDP by Metro; 2010-2018
The following graphic shows patterns of change in per capita real GDP by metro (MSA) from 2010 to 2018. Label shows 2018 rank of the metro among all 384 MSAs based on 2018 per capita real GDP. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser to full window for best quality view.

— view created using ProximityOne CV XE GIS and associated GIS project

Top 25 Metros (MSAs) based on 2018 per capita real GDP
The following graphic shows the top 25 metros (MSAs) based on 2018 per capita real GDP labeled with rank. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser to full window for best quality view.

— view created using ProximityOne CV XE GIS and associated GIS project
 
Using the Interactive Table – 10 largest metros based on 2018 real GDP
— insights into comparative analytics and trends.
— view, rank, compare districts based on your criteria.
— example, which metros have the largest 2018 real GDP?
Use the interactive table to examine GDP characteristics and trends of metros. The following view illustrates use of the table. This view shows use a query to show the ten metros ranked on 2018 real GDP. Click graphic for larger view.

Try using the interactive table to examine metros of interest.

Demographic-Economic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.