Examining the Situation & Outlook

.. this blog focuses on topics regarding the current situation and outlook .. what is happening now, historical trends and into the future .. demographic and economic characteristics for wide-ranging types of geography .. what will change where, when, by how much .. and how change might it impact you .. data resources and tools enabling a deeper dive; relating to decision-making and management. Access, analyze data with only a browser using VDA Web GIS. Get email updates with new posts as they happen … click Follow button at right.

Housing Price Index by ZIP Code – How Housing Markets are Trending

.. housing prices can impact residential investment and affect economic growth, business opportunities and the housing market. The Housing Price Index (HPI) is one measure of how housing prices are changing. The HPI by ZIP code, as reviewed here, is an index based on the year 2000=100. Changing trends in the HPI can used used the determine the relative costs of housing and change in housing valuation. Hosing prices, and the HPI, are only one part of determining how housing markets are trending. Other measures important to examine include building permits and new construction.

Examining Housing Price Trends
Use the VDA Web GIS tool to examine the Housing Price Index for ZIP Codes of interest. Create maps and tabular profiles such as the one shown below.

Video of Steps to Explore HPI by ZIP Code
Click graphic to view video showing how to use VDA Web GIS to access a ZIP Code profile.

About VDA Web GIS
VDA Web GIS is a decision-making information resource designed to help stakeholders create and apply insight. VDA Web GIS has been developed and is maintained by Warren Glimpse, ProximityOne (Alexandria, VA) and Takashi Hamilton, Tsukasa Consulting (Osaka, Japan).

About the Housing Price Index
The Housing Price Index used here is developed by the Federal Housing Fiance Agency (FHFA). The FHFA House Price Index is the nation’s only public, freely available house price indexes that measure changes in single-family home values based on data from all states that extend back to the mid-1970s.

About the Author
Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

New Authorized Monthly Residential Construction by City 

.. access/analyze monthly building permits data for any/all of 7,700 cities in a few minutes via a web browser. Building permits data, a leading economic indicator, are one of the few current indicators available at the city level to examine characteristics and trends. These data can provide insights into the type and value of housing that is being added. Use the VDA Web GIS to examine how the housing situation is changing for cities of interest.

The VDA Web GIS MetroDynamics city layer/dataset is updated with the most recent 6 months of the number of housing units by type and value. The current data provide monthly aggregated data for January 2022 through June 2022. The layer/dataset includes many other attributes (see details). Of the ~19,000 U.S. cities, ~7,700 issue monthly building permits and accessible via this resource.

Examining City Housing Characteristics & Trends
An example: cities in the Phoenix, AZ area labeled with the total building permits.

.. table under map view shows cities with largest number of building permits.
.. see steps to develop the above map and table.

Illustrative Profile for Surprise, AZ
.. selected items from MetroDynamics City layer/dataset
.. integrated subject matter from several sources
.. building permits most current

About VDA Web GIS
VDA Web GIS is a decision-making information resource designed to help stakeholders create and apply insight. VDA Web GIS has been developed and is maintained by Warren Glimpse, ProximityOne (Alexandria, VA) and Takashi Hamilton, Tsukasa Consulting (Osaka, Japan).

About Building Permits Data
Building permits data are collected monthly by the Census Bureau from permit issuing agencies. Monthly data are reported for access within one month of the reporting date. Data are collected on the number of new housing units authorized by type of units in building by value.

About the Author
Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Examining Age/Gender Distributions with Population Pyramids

Population pyramids provide a data visualization often used in demographic analysis because they provide a condensed but powerful illustration of a population’s age distribution by gender. You can use the ChartGraphics tool to create population pyramids for the U.S., states, counties and other areas as reviewed in this section. For example, examine Census 2020 population by 5-year age group by gender for your area of interest.

A population pyramid is essentially two bar charts, one for the male population on the left and the other for the female population on the right. The base of the pyramid, or bottom of the chart, has the youngest population (ages 0-4) and the top has the oldest (ages 85 and older). The following pyramids illustrate how Orange County, CA has changed from 2000 to 2020.


.. click here to view above graphic and table.


.. click here to view above graphic and table.

About the Author
Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Real Quarterly GDP Trends: State of the States

.. real gross domestic product (RGDP) decreased in 46 states and DC in 2022Q1, as real GDP for the nation decreased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent. The percent change in real GDP in 2022Q1 ranged from 1.2 percent in New Hampshire to 9.7 percent in Wyoming. Updated quarterly GDP estimates have only a 3-month lag from the reference date (e.g., 2022Q1) to access date (e.g. June 2022). Used as a time series, these data provide insights into recent economic change and prospective future change. The RGDP estimates are developed by sector, enabling an assessment of which and how sectors are contributing to change. While we look at all states in this post, California is used as an example. Examine your state(s) of interest using the tools and data described here.

See this companion video illustrating some aspects of using VDA Web GIS with the state quarterly GDP.

Analyzing Real Quarterly GDP by State Using VDA MetroDynamics
Percent Change in Real GDP, 2021Q1 to 2022Q1, U.S. by State

.. create variations of this view using VDA Web GIS .. nothing to install.
.. about MetroDynamics GIS Project
.. click here to start VDA Web GIS

Examine Real Quarterly GDP by State by Sector
GDP is estimated quarterly for 21 sectors. the following graphic shows quarterly RGDP by sector for California. Use VDA to examine these data for state(s) of interest. Step-by-step how-to details below.

View the above data as an Excel file (save to file and open with Excel).

Using VDA Web GIS to Examine GDP by State – Mapping Patterns
Follow these steps:
Start VDA Web GIS
– Select MetroDynamics Project in next form.
.. VDA user interface appears
– select States in upper left dropdown
– in legend panel, uncheck “Metros Base ..”
– in legend panel, check the top 4 States layers on
– in legend panel, check “+” by “St RGDP%Ch 21q1-22q1” layer name
.. view now shows similar to view presented above.

– click a state to view a profile of the demographic-economic attributes.
.. the profile appears in lower left panel.
.. click the HTML button, lower left, to view the attributes in HTML format.

Using VDA Web GIS to Examine GDP by State — Table/Query
Complete the above steps, then click Query/Table button (below map at right)
– a table/grid now shows below the map window
.. the table has a row for each state; columns show subject matter items
– use Select Field button to select only a few items:
  .. state name
  .. RGDP2021Q1
  .. RGDP2022Q1
  .. RGDP2021Q1-2022Q1 change
  .. RGDP2021Q1-2022Q1 % change
.. table refreshes with view shown below (sorted on RGDP2021Q1-2022Q1 % change).

Looking Ahead; Updates
New quarterly GDP by state estimates for 2022Q2 and revised annual GDP by state estimates for 2017 to 2021 and will be released on September 30, 2022.

About GDP and Measurement
State GDP estimates are updated quarterly by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The following terminology may be a useful reference.
Gross domestic product (GDP) by state is the market value of goods and services produced by the labor and property located in a state. GDP by state is the state counterpart of the nation’s gross domestic product, the most comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity.
Current-dollar statistics are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal GDP” or “current-price GDP.”
Real GDP values are inflation-adjusted statistics, these values exclude the effects of price changes.
State GDP is the lowest geographic level for which quarterly estimates of GDP are produced by BEA.
Seasonal adjustment and annual rates. Quarterly values are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” measures, are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2012). Quantity indexes are calculated using a Fisher-chained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods (quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). “Real” dollar series are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year and then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from chained-dollar levels and quantity indexes are conceptually the same. Chained-dollar values are not additive, because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year.
Chained-dollar values of GDP by state are derived by applying national chain-type price indexes to the current dollar values of GDP by state for the 21 North American Industry Classification System-based industry sectors. The chain-type index formula that is used in the national accounts is then used to calculate the values of total real GDP by state and real GDP by state at more aggregated industry levels. Real GDP by state may reflect a substantial volume of output that is sold to other states and countries. To the extent that a state’s output is produced and sold in national markets at relatively uniform prices (or sold locally at national prices), real GDP by state captures the differences across states that reflect the relative differences in the mix of goods and services that the states produce. However, real GDP by state does not capture geographic differences in the prices of goods and services that are produced and sold locally.

About VDA Web GIS
VDA Web GIS is a decision-making information resource designed to help stakeholders create and apply insight. VDA Web GIS has been developed and is maintained by Warren Glimpse, ProximityOne (Alexandria, VA) and Takashi Hamilton, Tsukasa Consulting (Osaka, Japan).

About the Author
Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Block Group Data & Demographic Analysis

.. location demographics .. find a block group (BG) based on an address using VDA Web GIS. Determine the BG code. See the BG map in context of other BGs, the topography, other geographies. Create a profile for a selected BG (2010 or 2020). View U.S. national scope BGs in a table/grid; sort on selected demographics. Query for BGs meeting certain criteria like median household income. Nothing to install, use your Web browser. No cost. Start VDA Web GIS here. See map example below where VDA is used to examine BGs in the Los Angeles area. Need help? Click the chat/message us button on the VDA web page.

Block Groups are the smallest geography areas for which data from the American Community Survey (ACS) are tabulated and cover the U.S. wall-to-wall. The popularity, importance, of block groups is their small area granualarity. While the decennial census provides demographics at the census block level, BGs are the smallest geographic area where richer demographics (like median household income) are available. BGs are also important as demographics are developed annually via the ACS 5-year estimates. The ACS 2019 block groups were based on Census 2010 geography. ACS 2020 block groups are based on Census 2020 geography. Many 2020 BG geographic areas differ from 2010 BG geographic areas especially in suburban and areas experiencing demographic change. 2010 and 2020 BGs often differ in both the geometry, earth surface coverage, and the geocode, the 12 character shorthand code/name. Since the geography differs, demographics for 2010 and 2020 BGs are often not directly comparable.

Block Group Geography
Block group geography is defined by the Census Bureau and generally non-changing for the decade, good for longitudinal demographic analysis throughout the 2020s. BGs are comprised of a set of census blocks and a part of (nest within) census tracts. See 2020 BG final criteria. 2020 BG geography is represented by shapefiles developed by the Census Bureau. Download the zip file containing the 2020 smoothed national scope BG boundaries here. Expanding that zip file, add the BG shapefile to a CV XE GIS project to view and use the BG geography (no subject matter included).

Compare 2010 and 2020 block groups using the VDA Web GIS. Nothing to install.
VDA Application using the Situation & Outlook Project
Follow these steps: view steps in video
– click Find Address; map refreshes showing address location as blue marker.
.. the default address is the UCLA campus/Losa Angeles vicinity.
– check on BG 2020 & BG 2020 code layers in legend panel at left of map window
.. BG boundaries & codes appear.
– click on BG as shown in map below; crosshatch appears.
– click HTML button below lower left profile panel.
.. opens HTML demographic profile.
Try these steps for an address of interest.

About Block Group 060372653011
The 2020 block group 06-037-265301-1 is highlighted in the above graphic. It has a 12 character geocode 06 (California) 037 (Los Angeles County) 256301 (2020 census tract) and block group 1 (2020 block group – unique code within tract). This block group has a high concentration of population who live in dorms (group quarters, noninstitutional) resulting in a high population to housing unit ratio. View the Census 2020 profile for this BG by clicking on this BG .. the profile is shown in the lower left panel. Click the HTML button to view the profile as an HTML page.

Block Group Demographics
The geometry of 2020 BGs is designed for population threshold of 600 to 3,000 population but might actually have a much larger population. Using 2010 BGs, the two primary sources of demographics are Census 2010 and the annual ACS 5-year estimates through 2019. Using 2020 BGs, the two primary sources of demographics are Census 2020 and annual ACS 5-year estimates starting with ACS 2020 (release date March 17, 2022). Many organizations use BG geography and demographics with their own programs, such as the Environmental Justice program of EPA.

Using DEDE
Use the Demographic-Economic Data Explorer (DEDE) to create custom 2010 or 2020 BG demographic data profiles or datasets from the decennial census or annual ACS programs. DEDE enables you to select from any of the thousands of BG demographics tabulated in the Census 2010, Census 2020 or any of the annual ACS statistical programs.

Using VDA Web GIS
2010 and 2020 demographics for all BGs are available now using the VDA Web GIS. Nothing to install. Start using VDA and examine BG geodemographics today; no fee. Compare 2010 and 2020 BGs. Create demographic profiles like this one in HTML or CSV/Excel structure. Access all U.S. BGs in a table grid; sort and perform queries. Use selected table queries to display those selected BGs in the map view. Use the GeoSelect feature to perform site analysis operations.

ACS 2020 Demographics
ACS 2020 demographics for 2020 BGs will be reviewed in a subsequent post.

About VDA Web GIS
VDA Web GIS is a decision-making information resource designed to help stakeholders create and apply insight. VDA Web GIS has been developed and is maintained by Warren Glimpse, ProximityOne (Alexandria, VA) and Takashi Hamilton, Tsukasa Consulting (Osaka, Japan).

About the Author
Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Examining Ukraine and Region using VDA

Ukraine is a country that is now on many people’s minds. It is easy to examine the geography of Ukraine in context of the region using VDA Web GIS.

The Visual Data Analytics (VDA) Web GIS supports worldwide applications. Explore characteristics of Ukraine and the surrounding area with only a browser. There is no cost. Follow the steps described below to get started.

• Start VDA Web GIS using a browser .. link to start VDA Web GIS.
– you will need to sign-up, then you can easily revisit.
• Open the Situation & Outlook Project.
– next you will see a form asking you to select a project.
– select the Situation & Outlook project.
– the opening view is the U.S. by county.
– note that for the VDA Level 1 free version, the session closes in 10 minutes.
– just start over … you are now more familiar with operations.
– if you are new to VDA, please review getting started.
• Check on “OpenStreetMaps” in Legend Panel; left of Map Window toward bottom:

• Navigate to Kyiv, Ukraine
– Key in the name Kyiv in Find Address edit box and click Find Address button
– the view refreshes; a marker (for Kyiv location) shows in the Map Window:

• In the legend panel, click on the “Country Projections to 2050” layer
• Zoom-out to Ukraine country view
– click zoom-out button below map window 6 times (or use zoom window).
– navigate in the map window to obtain this view of the region:

• To get the above view, with Ukraine the selected country, proceed as follows:
– select “Country Projections to 2050” in the “Select Layer” dropdown (upper left)
– click anywhere in map window on Ukraine
– the crosshatching appears; a profile of Ukraine appears in lower left Profile Panel.
– click the HTML button (lower left) to view this profile in HTML format.
– browser must be enabled to show popups.
– in the HTML profile, see that the 2022 Ukraine population is 43.5 million.
• Examining Ukraine provinces — Luhansk Oblast (eastern Ukraine):
– select “Country by State” in the “Select Layer” dropdown (upper left)
– navigate to eastern Ukraine
– click anywhere on Luhansk Oblast map and the following view appears:

– the crosshatching appears showing this Oblast.
– a profile of Luhansk Oblast appears in lower left Profile Panel.
– click the HTML button (lower left) to view this profile in HTML format.
– in the HTML profile, see the Oblast VDA computed area is 26,310,276,552 sqmt
… or 10,158 square miles (26310276552/2589988).

About VDA Web GIS
VDA Web GIS is a decision-making information resource designed to help stakeholders create and apply insight. VDA Web GIS has been developed and is maintained by Warren Glimpse, ProximityOne (Alexandria, VA) and Takashi Hamilton, Tsukasa Consulting (Osaka, Japan).

About the Author
Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Majority-Minority Population by Census Tract

.. based on the Census Bureau’s assessment of Census 2020 results, the most prevalent racial or ethnic group for the United States was the White alone non-Hispanic population at 57.8%. This decreased from 63.7% in 2010. This trend will continue into the future. Over time, interest has grown in majority-minority areas ranging from congressional districts to neighborhoods. Of the 85,190 Census 2020 census tracts, 28,317 tracts were majority-minority based on Census 2020 demographics. Decision-making information using VDA Web GIS .. examining lending institution assessment areas .. see below.
.. of the 1,113 Census 2020 census tracts in Harris County, TX (Houston), 549 tracts are majority-minority tracts based on Census 2020 data. Minority-majority areas are those areas where the resident population is less than 50% non-Hispanic whites. Use tools and methods described in this section to analyze the majority-minority patterns in your census tracts, neigborhoods, areas of interest.
Patterns of Majority-Minority Population in Harris County, TX
The following view shows patterns of Census 2020 percent majority-minority population by Census 2020 census tract in the Houston area.
This view was developed using the VDA Web GIS. You can create a similar for areas of interest. Only a Web browser is needed. In this view, the tracts layer is selected as the “active layer” and a census tract is clicked in the map window. The tract highlights with a blue hatch pattern and a profile is shown in the lower left panel. See that this tract has a Census 2020 total population of 5,380 (TotPop) and White alone, non-Hispanic population (White1NH) of 131. Use the VDA Table/Query feature to examine tracts in a spreadsheet/grid.
Majority-Minority Population by Tract Interactive Table
The following view illustrates use of the VDA Table/Query feature to examine and query the majority-minority population by tract.

This SQL statement is used to select, compute and show the data in a tabular form by tract.
select uid, geoid, totpop, white1nh, 100*(totpop-white1nh)/totpop where totpop>0 and geoid like ‘48201%’
The percent majority-minority is computed “on the fly”.
The table is ranked by on this sort instruction:
100*(totpop-white1nh)/totpop desc
The resulting table shows tracts as rows with the highest percent majort-minority at the top. A larger population tract is selected by clicking on it in the grid. The tract 48-201-331700 is selected in the table; that tract is zoomed-to in the map, and the demographics are shown in the profile (TotPop 4,045, White1NH 29).
Examining Majority-Minority Tract Patterns in Context of Lending/Mortgages
Majority-minority census tracts relates to banks/lenders and the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA). The following graphic developed using VDA Web GIS, shows locations of a California bank in context of patterns of percent majority-minority tracts. It is easy to see how bank locations relate to patterns of majority-minority tracts. Lenders and stakeholders are enabled to analyze patterns and gain insights. See more about adding/using the national FDIC bank locations data to VDA Web GIS to perform more in-depth analysis.

Using VDA GeoSelect Tool to Examine Assessment/Service Areas
The following graphic illustrates use of the VDA GeoSelect tool to select tracts around a bank location to evaluate demographic characteristics of an area .. an assessment area or service area. As tracts are selected they are shown with a hatch pattern. The Profile panel, lower left, is dynamically updated to show aggregated demographics for the set of tracts selected including total population and race/origin details.

Using the Visual Data Analytics (VDA) Web GIS
Learn more about VDA.
Sign-in to to VDA using browser, nothing to install.
Select the “Base — Majority-Minority Tracts” GIS Project.
The opening view shows majority-minority tract patterns, similar to the above graphic/view.

Learn more — Join me in the Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Accessing & Using GeoDemographics Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Warren Glimpse/ProximityOne/Alexandria, VA USA and Takashi Hamilton/Tsukasa/Osaka, Japan are co-developers of VDA. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Examining Demographics of an Address/Locale

.. the word is that Bosch lives in a different census block and block group than in 2010. He didn’t move. How could this be? Suppose he knows? And why it matters?
.. using VDA Web GIS, here we explore the Find Address feature to locate and view addresses/locations and examine demographic-economic characteristics of the associated locales.
.. the popular Amazon Bosch TV series uses a filming location located at 7207 Woodrow Wilson Dr, Los Angeles, CA 90068 .. one U.S. residential address among the more than 141 million in the U.S. While this location has Census 2010 block code 06-037-140700-2005, the Census 2020 block code is 06-037-140700-1007 .. not only a different block but different block group (Census 2010: BG 2, Census 2020: BG 1). Analysts, and ultimately decision-makers, need to examine  BG/block pdemographics to compare 2010-based data with 2020-based data to understand patterns and trends.

.. the total number of housing units in the U.S. grew by 6.7% between 2010 and 2020 (140,498,736 based on Census 2020) — approximately half the rate of growth during the previous decade.
.. using any browser (nothing to install) you can use the tools/resources reviewed below for any address enabling visually based decision-making information collaboration. View locations of interest in context of demographic-economic characteristics and patterns.
VDA Find Address
Choose from three methods of VDA Find Address.

.. three methods of the VDA Find Address feature are used to examine characteristics of the locale for the 7207 Woodrow Wilson Dr, Los Angeles, CA 90068 address. VDA is used to show this address (blue triangle in graphic below) in context of the broader Los Angeles area.

Option 1 .. Find Address, no geocode returned.
– enter the address into the form, click Go
– the blue triangle is placed at the address location.

Option 2 .. Find Address, returns 2010 census block code
– the Census 2020 block for the location is cross-hatched.
the 2010 census block code is returned as 06-037-140700-2005
– the Census 2020 profile is shown in the lower left panel.

Option 3 .. Find Address, returns 2020 census block code
– the Census 2020 block for the location is cross-hatched.
the 2020 census block code is returned as 06-037-140700-1007
– the Census 2020 profile is show

Changing Demographics
About this address block group:
2010 Census (no “richer” demographics) .. API call .. items
– for 2010 block group 06-037-143700-2
– population: 1,266 .. median household income: not available; not tabulated

2019 American Community Survey (most recent “richer” demographics)
– for 2010 block group 06-037-143700-2
– population: 1,791 .. median household income: $109,511

2020 Census (no “richer” demographics)
– for 2020 block group 06-037-143700-1 (2010 BG data no longer tabulated)
– population: 1,261 .. median household income: unknown/not tabulated
– different 2020 BG code but roughly the same geometry as 2010 BG

2020 American Community Survey (“richer” demographics)
– for 2020 block group 06-037-140700-1
– population: unknown median household income: unknown/not yet available
– ACS 2020 5-year estimates will be released 12/9/21

Using the Visual Data Analytics (VDA) Web GIS
Learn more about VDA.
Sign-in to to VDA using browser, nothing to install.
Select the “Census 2020” GIS Project; wait for opening view.
Select Tools>Find Address on Main menu bar.

Learn more — Join me in the Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Accessing & Using GeoDemographics Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Warren Glimpse/ProximityOne/Alexandria, VA USA and Takashi Hamilton/Tsukasa/Osaka, Japan are co-developers of VDA. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Arizona’s Shifting Demographics

.. part of a state-by-state series .. these periodic posts examine how and why the state and its counties changed bwteen 2010 and 2020. Later posts will provide more of a drill-down look at change. Click the Follow link at right to receive new and updated information.

Census 2020 Arizona Demographics
The Arizona July 1, 2020 Census model-based population estimate of 7,421,401 compares to the Census 2020 population count of 7,151,502 people. The difference of -269,899 between the 2020 estimate and the 2020 count can be explained by several factors. First, the estimate is for a point in time that is three months later that the Census. There will be a tendency of the Census Bureau to adjust the Joly 1, 2020 population estimate to conform to the Census 2020 value. The July 1, 2020 estimate will likely be adjusted to reflect this change when the July 1, 2021 estimates are released April/May of 2022.

The 2020 population estimate is determined using a component method. The 2020 population estimate is the sum of the 2019 population estimate (7,291,843 for Arizona) and each of the following for the period July 1, 2019 through June 30, 2020 …
plus births (AZ 81,451)
less deaths (AZ 66,385)
plus international migration (AZ 9,272)
plus domestic migration (AZ 105,435)
plus an estimation residual (AZ -214)

Any one or a combination of these 6 estimate based values could be wrong, or the Census 2020 value could be wrong. It is likely a combination of all of these factors.

The remainder of this section is based on Census Bureau model-based estimates, released April 26, 2021. See more about these data for all U.S. counties in the Demographics 2060 section where Arizona demographic projections can be examined.

Visualizing Arizona Demographic Change
The following graphic illustrates how Arizona county demographics have changed from 2010 to 2020. The labels show the actual percent change; the color patterns, as shown in the legend, provide a visual thematic pattern view.

Examining the How and Why of Demographic Change
The following table shows a row for the state and each county, providing more detail as to the where, what/how much, how and why demographic change has occurred from 2010 to 2020.


Click graphic for larger view.

Looking Ahead
More geographically detailed data (counties for example) based Census 2020 (August 2021) will reveal much starker percentage differences between the 2020 estimates versus Census results. The ProximityOne annual estimates and projections to 2060 are developed using two basic series (and variation among those (low, base, high): Census 2020 based series and 2020 estimates series. See http://proximityone.com/demographics2060 for details.

Learn more — Join me in the Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Accessing & Using GeoDemographics Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Census 2020 – First Results

.. the first results of Census 2020, the apportionment data, were released on April 26, 2021.  Based on the decennial census, the United States total resident population increased from 308,745,538 (2010) to 331,449,281 (2020), a change of 22,703,743 (7.3%). For now, these data should be trusted and assumed accurate.  The apportionment data provide only total population counts at the state level.  More will be revealed about the accuracy of these data when the redistricting data are released in August 2021.

Apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives
Congressional apportionment is the process of dividing the 435 members, or seats, in the House of Representatives among the 50 states based on the population data from the decennial census. See more about congressional districts and demographic-economic characteristics. See this related web section for detailed information on apportionment. Use the interactive table to view/analyze the Census 2010 and Census 2020 apportionment data. The following view shows patterns of congressional seats based on the decennial census. Labels show the number of seats based on the 2020 Census. Color patterns show the change in seats, 2010 to 2020.

Census 2020: the Process & Challenges
Counting the total population and selected population attributes in a pandemic is not only challenging but not possible.  During 2020, as the data were collected, it seemed good news that more than two-thirds of the potential respondents had completed the questionnaire.  But then the questions set in.  Bureau public announcements frequently made reference to the number or housing units and the number of households (occupied housing units) “accounted for” reaching 90 percent and progressively more.  By observation, using administrative record data, and other methods, housing units can be much more easily counted than the population and population attributes.  Likewise, determining the number households is  easier than determining the population count and characteristics.

The fact that the state population counts were unexpectedly different from the Bureau’s model based estimates is troubling.  We seek more assurance that the count of  population and population characteristics — by location — are as represented by the apportionment data.

Census Bureau 2020 Model-Based Estimates
New Census Bureau sourced U.S. by county model-based population estimates by age/gender/race-origin as of July 1, 2020 will be released by the Bureau in May 2021.  These estimates are independent of Census 2020 and make use of methods used annually throughout the 2010-2020 period.  An upcoming blog will report on ProximityOne’s analysis of these estimates in comparison with the Census 2020 data.

ProximityOne Estimates & Projections to 2060
ProximityOne annual demographic estimates and projections 2010-2060 by county will begin a new update cycle in May 2021.  The schedule is shown here.  

Starting with the May updates, two base projection series will be developed and progressively updated: one controlled to the Census 2020 data and one based on continued use of 2020 model-based estimates. As more information is released from Census 2020. Follow this blog for more information on evolving developments.

Learn more — Join me in the Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Accessing & Using GeoDemographics Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.