Examining the Situation & Outlook

.. this blog focuses on topics regarding the current situation and outlook .. what is happening now, historical trends and into the future .. visit Demographics 2060 .. geographic, demographic and economic characteristics for wide-ranging types of geography .. what will change where, when, by how much .. and how change might it impact you .. data resources and tools enabling a deeper dive; relating to decision-making. Get email updates when posted, click button at right.

America’s Cities: Situation & Outlook

.. the path forward .. planning for the future .. in April 2019, the employment in Houston, TX was 1,111,283 with an unemployment rate of 3.2%. In April 2020, the employment in Houston, TX was 927,105 with an unemployment rate of 14.9%. What will the 2020 annual look like? 2021? There are many paths to get to 2021 and beyond. What policy and action measures might work best? What about your cities of interest? See the related Web section for more details.

Houston characteristics: Demographic .. Social .. Economic .. Housing
Get for any city/area .. e-mail your request

The pandemic impacts on America’s cities in different ways .. some experiencing little change, others with massive change. When, where and how will these disparate patterns change in cities and communities of interest? How might this change impact you and your community? A comprehensive plan needs to be developed and set in motion to achieve best outcomes. This section provides access to tools and data that stakeholders can use to examine America’s cities demographic-economic characteristics and trends. Examine cities of interest. Use ProximityOne data, tools, methods and advisory services to achieve improved results.

Of the nation’s 327.2 million people, an estimated 206.0 million (62.9%) live within an incorporated place. Of approximately 19,500 incorporated places, about 76 percent had fewer than 5,000 people and nearly 50 percent had fewer than 1,000 people. Examine characteristics of individual city population trends and compare cities in states, regions and peer groups using the interactive table below.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity; Cities 50,000 Population or More
The following view shows cities with 2019 population of 50,000 or more as markers .. mainly principal cities of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Nationally, there are 69 cities with 2019 population of 5,000 or more (determine using interactive table below). The marker color shows the median household income; see inset legend. Click graphic for larger view; expand window to full screen.

– View developed using the ProximityOne CV XE GIS software.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity; Cities 5,000 Population or More
– zoom-in to Dallas Metro
The following view shows cities with 2019 population of 5,000 or more as polygons/city boundary-area in the Dallas metro area. There are 201 cities that intersect with the Dallas metro (code 19100); 96 of these cities have a population greater than 5,000 (determine using interactive table below). The color patterns show the median household income range; see inset legend. Click graphic for larger view; expand window to full screen.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity by Neighborhood & Adjacent Areas
The following view shows patterns of median household income by block group (sub-neighborhoods) within city (bold black boundary) in the Dallas County, TX area. In examining the situation & outlook for a city it is important to examine characteristics of drill-down geography and adjacent cities/areas. Inset legend shows median household income color intervals. Click graphic for larger view; expand window to full screen. In the larger view, a cross-hatch pattern is applied to Dallas city. It is easier to see how Dallas city is comprised of a core area as well as outlying areas and extends into adjacent counties.

Interactive Analysis of Cities: Demographic-Economic Patterns & Trends
Use the interactive table to view, rank, compare cities based on demographic-economic trends and characteristics. The following static graphics provide two examples.

 

Largest 15 U.S. Cities Ranked on 2019 Population

California Cities Ranked on Educational Attainment

Learn more — Join me in the Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Business Establishment Characteristics by County

.. what are the number and types of businesses underlying county economies of interest? What is the employment size by type of business establishment? What scope of wages, earnings do they contribute? Learn more here.

The pandemic impact on businesses remains in flux .. this post tools and data that can be used to examine pre-pandemic business establishments and employment pattern characteristics by county. By examining pre-pandemic conditions, we can better assess the impact of how and why business, demographic and economic change and impact as we move forward. The magnitude and duration of the impact on businesses will vary by community/area and become more measurable in the months ahead. The “How & Where of Business Establishment/Employment Change” will be updated later in 2020. See related, more detailed web section. See related section focused business establishments by ZIP code.

Where Things are Made by County
The following graphic shows patterns of the number of manufacturing establishments (NAICS 31) by county for the U.S. 48 contiguous states. Inset legend in map view shows number of establishments by interval/color. View/examine all U.S. states and areas using the related GIS project. Create custom maps similar to this view for your regions of interest depicting establishments, employment or payroll for your type of business selection(s). Click graphic for larger view with more detail; expand browser window for best quality view.

– view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.

The above view shows patterns for only one type of business. Data are tabulated more than 2,000 NAICS/type of business codes. These data may be examined by county using the interactive table. Use the GIS tools and related GIS project to develop variations of the views shown here.

Using the Interactive Table
The 10 largest counties based on the number of manufacturing establishments are shown in the static graphic below. Click for larger view.

Use the interactive table to dynamically create similar rankings on employment size or payroll. Set a query for a county, metro or state of interest.

Updates
These data update in June 2020. Follow the blog (click button at upper right) to receive updates.

Learn more — Join us in the Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

How & Why County Demographics are Changing

.. the pandemic impact on population change remains in flux. For many counties it will impact each component of population change: births, deaths and migration. The magnitude and duration of the impact on each component will vary by county and become more measurable in the months ahead. The “How & Why County Demographics are Changing” will be updated later in 2020.

Here we look at population and components of change by county for the period 2010 to 2019 .. tools and data to examine how the U.S. by county population is changing. These latest 2019 estimates were released this spring. See more in the related web section.

Top 25 Counties with Largest Population Change 2010-2019
Create a table similar to the one shown below using the interactive table. Sort on selected criteria and within a selected state or metro.

Patterns of Population Change by County, 2010-2019
The following graphic shows how counties have gained population (blue and green) and lost population (orange and red) during the period 2010 to 2019. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Examining Population Components of Change
Population change can be examined in terms of components of change. There are three components of change: births, deaths, and migration. The change in the population from births and deaths is often combined and referred to as natural increase or natural change. Populations grow or shrink depending on if they gain people faster than they lose them. Examining a county’s unique combination of natural change and migration provides insights into why its population is changing and how quickly the change is occurring. The above graphic shows these relationships.

County Population & Components of Change 2010-2019 – Interactive Table
View/analyze county population and components of change characteristics and trends in a tabular manner using the interactive table. The following static graphic shows net migration 2010-2019 by year for Houston, TX metro component counties. Rows have been ranked in descending order based on 2010 population. It is easy to see how the net migration in Harris County has been decreasing annually since 2015.

Try it yourself. Use the interactive table to examine counties/areas of interest.

Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Patterns of Income in America’s Largest Cities

The retreat in personal and household income resulting from the pandemic will be historic and substantial. How long term? Which cities of what size and location will be affected the most? We start to study patterns and trends as new data become available in the next several weeks.

America’s largest 629 cities accounted for a group population of 121,228,560, or 37.1%, of the total U.S. population (327,167,434) in 2018. All of these cities are in Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). With contiguous cities and places, these urban areas account for more than 80% of the U.S. population. These cities, each with 65,000 population or more, are shown as markers in the thematic pattern view below. See more about cities/places and city/place 2010-2018 demographic trends.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity: America’s Largest Cities
– cities with 2018 population 65,000+ shown as markers
– markers show level of 2018 median household income
– data used to develop this veiw were extracted using GeoFinder.
– click map for larger view; expand browser to full screen for best quality view.

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.

Top 25 Largest Cities based on Median Household Income

About America’s Largest Cities & Economic Characteristics
The set of the 629 America’s largest cities is based on data from the 2018 American Community Survey 1-year estimates (ACS 2018). ACS 2018 1-year estimates, by design, provide data only for areas 65,000 population or more. The ACS 2018 data are the only source of income and related economic data for national scope each/all cities/places (29,853) on an annual and more recent basis. These data will update with 2019 estimates in September 2020. ACS-based data reflecting the impact of the pandemic will not be available until September 2021.

Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Financing America’s Schools

.. as we look to restarting America’s economy, the nation’s public school systems face many questions and logistical issues.  Among these issues are a wide range of financial challenges.  Financing America’s public K-12 schools is supported by a mix of Federal, state and local funding.  In FY 2017, 13,311 regular public school districts reported total revenues of $679,925 billion derived from $51,212 billion federal (7.5%), $317,434 billion state (46.7%) and $311,278 billion local (45.8%) sources. These data are based on the school district finances (F-33) program data released by the Census Bureau in May 2019. States and individual school districts vary widely on the make-up/distribution of these federal, state and local sources.  See more about this topic and related K-12 schools topics in the ProximityOne K-12 schools main Web section.

Use tools and data reviewed here to examine K-12 school district finances — sources and uses of funds for FY 2017. View, sort, query, compare school district sources and uses of funds using the interactive table below in this section. Create/view profiles for district(s) of interest.

Data and resources reviewed here update in early May 2020 with new FY 2018 sources and uses of funds data and related school/school district financial data. We examine the implications of COVID-19 for school systems as we look to Restarting the Economy. Join the User Group to receive updates.

Percent Federal Revenue by School District, FY 2017
The following graphic shows patterns of percent Federal revenue by school district (unified and secondary), FY 2017. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser to full window for best quality view.

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.
– use these tools on your computer to examine these data & related data.

Percent State Revenue by School District, FY 2017
The following graphic shows patterns of percent State revenue by school district (unified and secondary), FY 2017. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser to full window for best quality view.

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.
– use these tools on your computer to examine these data & related data.

Interactive Table
The following static graphic shows the 10 Texas school districts having the largest Federal revenue. Sources of Federal revenue by program are also shown. Create views like this for any of the sources and uses of funds items for your selection of school districts. Use the interactive table (separate page) for dynamic analysis of individual school districts in context of U.S. overall, states or metros. Select by state or metro and rank based on any of several selected revenue by source and per student expenditure by category.

– click graphic for larger view

Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Analyzing Patterns of COVID-19

.. as COVID-19 impacts our demographics, economy and way of life, we look for answers about where we are and what lies ahead.  Here we review data on COVID-19 incidence and tools to analyze those data. In the coming days, weeks, we plan to augment these tools and data. See more below.  See related Web section for more detail.

Use new resources to examine/analyze patterns of COVID-19 incidence in context of related demographic-economic characteristics. Resources include the narrative/interpretative portion, interactive table and GIS tools and project/files. Data and tools are updated daily. There is no fee to use any of these resources.

COVID-19 Incidence by County in the Atlanta Metro Area
The following graphic shows patterns of COVID-19 incidence (number of cases per 1,000 population) by county. See color patterns in the inset legend. This view shows counties labeled with name and number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Use the GIS project described below to create variations of this view and develop similar views for any metro.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

The GIS resources and interactive table below makes use of the COVID-19 confirmed cases data updated daily by the New York Times. See more about the New York Times U.S. tracking page.

COVID-19 Incidence — U.S. by County
Similar to the above view, the following graphic shows patterns of COVID-19 incidence (number of cases per 1,000 population) by county for the U.S. See color patterns in the inset legend. This view shows counties labeled with name and number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Use the GIS project described below to create variations of this view and develop similar views for any metro. Click graphic for larger, more detailed view. Expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Using GIS Tools & Resources
Use the Geographic Information System (GIS) CV XE GIS software and GIS project to view maps and geospatially analyze patterns COVID-19 cases in context of related demographic-economic data. The GIS project automatically opens with the following view:

.. see details about using the mapping/GIS resources.
.. create map views for your areas of interest.

COVID-19 Confirmed Cases by County Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to view, rank, query compare patterns of COVID-19 cases. See related demographic-economic interactive tables.

The following static graphic illustrates use of the table to view daily patterns of COVID-19 cases in Cobb County, GA.

Use the interactive table to examine counties of interest.

Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Census 2020 Residential Address Counts by Block

.. using Census 2020 residential address count data to examine change since 2010 .. the Census Bureau has released preliminary Census 2020 residential address counts by Census 2010 census block. These data, count of residential addresses and group quarters addresses, reflect updates as of October 2019 and do not represent final Census 2020 counts. The data will continue to be updated to support Census 2020. See related Web section with more detail and updates.

Importance and Use
These data are of immediate value in determining and analyzing how the number of housing units have changed, 2010 to 2019. Since the data are at the census block level, they may be aggregated to any other Census-defined summary level/type of geographic area such as block group, tract, ZIP code, city, county, school district, etc. These data are also important as they give us a “year in advance look” at how small area demographics are changing since 2010. Before this, the most recent census block data were from Census 2010. A lot has happened in many areas. These data provide insights into that change. The Census 2020 block level data will be released in early 2021 for Census 2020 census block geography. So, another important feature of these data is that they are summarized for Census 2010 census block boundaries. Census 2010 and 2020 block boundaries may differ, particularly in areas experiencing larger demographic growth/change. An important limitation is that they are counts, subject to change as the Census data are collected/tabulated.

Comparing Census 2010 Housing Units with Census 2020 Address Counts
The following graphic shows patterns of Census 2010 housing counts with the Census 2020 (late 2019 vintage) residential address counts by census block. This view is focused on census tract 3608100700 (tract 000700) in Queens County, NY (code shown near center of graphic). Individual blocks are labeled with block code (4 digits) with the Census 2010 housing units (yellow label) and Census 2020 residential address count (green label) shown below the block code. As an example, the block located at the pointer has block code 3006 (or full national scope unique block code 36-081-00700-3006) with a Census 2010 count 44 housing units and a Census 2020 (late 2019 count) of 232 residential addresses. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser window to full screen for best quality view.

.. view created with ProximityOne CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.

More About Using these Data
We have summarized these data at the census tract level and are evaluating their use, in combination with other data, to develop current estimates and projections to 2025.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Relating ZIP Codes and Census Tracts

.. what census tracts intersect with a ZIP code of interest? There are many reasons for the underlying the need to convert/equivalence ZIP codes to/from census tracts. Some organizations have to provide census tract codes for addresses/ZIP codes of clients to be in compliance with a law or regulation. Some organizations have addresses/ZIP codes of clients/locations for which they would like to determine the corresponding census tract codes to analyze census tract demographics. This post reviews tools and options for these operations. See related Web section to access interactive table and learn more about mapping and geospatially relating these two geographies.

Phoenix/Scottsdale, AZ ZIP Code-Census Tract Relationship
The following graphic illustrates the relationship between ZIP code area 85258 (orange fill pattern) with census tracts (green boundaries and geocode labels).
(StCtyTract=04013216813).
.. view created with ProximityOne CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.

Create your own maps of areas relating ZIP codes and census tract, in context of other geography. Use the CV XE GIS with shapefiles.

Using the Interactive Table
Use the ZIP code to census tract interactive table (opens new page) to answer questions such as:
• Which census tracts intersect with a ZIP code of interest?
• Which ZIP code(s) intersect with census tract(s) of interest?
• What is the Census 2010 population for a census tract and ZIP code combination?

The interactive equivalence/look-up table shows a row for each unique combination of a Census 2010 ZIP code area and Census 2010 census tract. The start-up view is sorted on the State-County-Tract column (StCtyTract). View ZIP codes in one state using the State selection button. To locate a ZIP code of interest, either use the Find ZIP query or sort on the ZIP code column and then scroll down the table until the ZIP of interest is located.

Example. Click Find ZIP button using the interactive table (opens new page) to view only the tracts intersecting with ZIP code 85258 (as shown in map view above). The Location 1 marker (see pointer in map) is located in the area intersecting ZIP code 85258 and census tract 2168.13. The refreshed table view is shown by the graphic below. There are nine tracts intersecting with this ZIP code; see the tract codes in the table.

Try this for a ZIP of interest:
• View the interactive table (opens new page).
• Click the Showall button below table.
• Key in your 5-digit ZIP code in edit box where 85258 now shows.
• Click Find ZIP button.
• Table refreshes showing only tracts intersecting with this ZIP code.

Scope of Tracts and ZIPs in Table
There are 150,806 rows in the table, each showing a unique combination of a census tract (73,057 Census 2010 tracts) and ZIP code area (33,120 Census 2010 ZCTAs). Each row represents an intersection of the specified census tract and ZIP code area and corresponds to a geographic area of one census block or more. The total population and housing units values have been derived by summing component census block values. The sum of the population column is 308,745,538, the United States Census 2010 total population.

Situation & Outlook Weekly Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook web session to discuss more details about demographic-economic estimates and projections.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Neighborhood Median Family Income: Measuring Economic Well-Being

.. Median Family Income ($MFI) and Median Household Income ($MHI) are two measures of economic well-being. Based on the 2018 American Community Survey 1-year (ACS) data, the U.S. 2018 $MFI was estimated to be $76,401 while the $MHI was estimated to be $61,937 .. both in 2018/current dollars. Create insights into patterns of well-being by neighborhood using geospatial analysis. $MFI patterns are illustrated by the following thematic pattern map.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity by Neighborhood/Census Tract
The following view shows patterns of $MFI by census tract for the inner beltway area of Houston/Harris County, TX. Income interval color patterns are shown in the inset legend. Tracts are labeled with $MFI. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser window for best quality view. Larger view shows tracts labeled with tract code. It is easy to see how west Houston and east Houston areas differ.

– view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.
– these $MFI data are based on the 2018 ACS 5-year estimates.

This section focuses on $MFI but could just as well focus on $MHI and yet other related income measures. $MFI will almost always be greater that $MHI, generally by a large margin. See the U.S. 2018 $MFI and $MHI in context of related demographic-economic measure here. See more about the distinctions/definitions of families and and households below.

The ACS data are a unique source of income and related data at the neighborhood or sub-county level. View more about accessing and using the 2018 ACS 5-year estimates.

Family Definition
A family is a group of two people or more (one of whom is the householder) related by birth, marriage, or adoption and residing together; all such people (including related subfamily members) are considered as members of one family. The number of families is equal to the number of family households. However, the count of family members differs from the count of family household members because family household members include any non-relatives living in the household.

Related … an unmarried partner, also known as a domestic partner, is specifically defined as a person who shares a close personal relationship with the reference person. … Same-sex unmarried-partner families or households – reference person and unmarried partner are both male or female.

Household Definition
A household consists of all the people who occupy a housing unit. A house, an apartment or other group of rooms, or a single room, is regarded as a housing unit when it is occupied or intended for occupancy as separate living quarters; that is, when the occupants do not live with any other persons in the structure and there is direct access from the outside or through a common hall.

A household includes the related family members and all the unrelated people, if any, such as lodgers, foster children, wards, or employees who share the housing unit. A person living alone in a housing unit, or a group of unrelated people sharing a housing unit such as partners or roomers, is also counted as a household. The count of households excludes group quarters. There are two major categories of households, “family” and “nonfamily”.

Situation & Outlook Weekly Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook web session to discuss more details about demographic-economic estimates and projections.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Climate Change & the Demographic-Economic Outlook

.. it is startling that many do not accept the reality that climate change is upon us. Climate change is, right now, affecting the demographic-economic outlook … how things will change in the next fifty years and how this change might impact each of us. A challenge is to determine how to best integrate the right set of data, variables, into our cause and effect predictive models. By doing so, we improve the quality and accuracy of projections. We can better examine what-if scenarios. Business decision-making and policy-making implications are enormous.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has recently taken the position that climate change has become a defining factor in companies’ long-term prospects.

Climate Risk Is Investment Risk
Investment strategies mean exiting/avoiding some investments that present a high sustainability-related risk, such as coal producers and new/expanded investment products that screen fossil fuels. Many others.

The impact of these types of investment risks are already appearing. While the stock market continues an unprecedented rally, energy sector companies are not performing as well. This impacts the metros/areas where they operate affecting the economic base and impacting the population/housing growth and composition.

Climate Risk Affects Personal/Family Decision-Making
As Larry Fink/Blackrock notes, what will happen to the 30-year mortgage – a key building block of finance – if lenders can’t estimate the impact of climate risk over such a long timeline? What if there is no viable market for flood or fire insurance in impacted areas? Happening now. What happens to inflation, and in turn interest rates, if the cost of food climbs from drought and flooding? Risks to human health and and migration due to climate change are already being experienced.

The Situation & Outlook — Improving Model Specification
This is our challenge — modeling economic change where emerging markets see their productivity impacted due to extreme heat and other climate impacts .. modeling migration of people and businesses being impacted by climate change .. modeling the housing infrastructure being implemented by climate change .. determining how and where climate change might impact personal income and GDP by county. In many cases, because of the way and what data are collected, it is difficult to sort out what part of migration, business change and other key measures are due in what part to climate change.

Quantification of climate change, and new model-based cause and effect specifications, will be reflected in the 2020 ProximityOne Situation & Outlook demographic-economic projections to 2060. For the first time, and on a continuing basis, we and our clients will be able to examine the quantified impact of climate change down to the county level of geography. This is now a topic included in the weekly Situation & Outlook web sessions.

Situation & Outlook Weekly Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook web session to discuss more details about demographic-economic estimates and projections.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.