Outlook 2060

.. reach this blog at http://outlook2060.com .. see related Demographics 2060 .. this blog focuses on topics regarding the current situation and outlook .. what is happening now, historical trends and into the future .. geographic, demographic and economic characteristics for wide-ranging types of geography .. what will change where, when, by how much .. and how change might it impact you .. data resources and tools enabling a deeper dive; relating to decision-making. Get email updates when posted, click button at right. Planned topics in week of (month ahead):
.. what these new data are telling us in context of other data; accessing the data ..

American Community Survey 2018: Geography & Access

.. there are 519 core-Based Statistical Areas (metros & micros) included as American Community Survey (ACS) 2018 tabulation areas. 2018 demographic-economic estimates are included for these and many other types of political/statistical areas — the subject of this section. This is the first in a series of posts about accessing, integrating and using the ACS 2018 data. Learn more about effective ways to use these and related data. See the main web section for more detail and access to the interactive table. The release date for the ACS 2018 data is September 26, 2019.

ACS 2018 1-year Tabulation Areas: 519 Core-Based Statistical Areas
— MSAs and MISAs

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
– geospatial analyze ACS 2018 1 year estimates integrated with your data to examine patterns; gain insights.

The 2018 American Community Survey (ACS 2018 main) is a nationwide survey designed to provide annually updated demographic-economic data for national and sub-national geography. ACS provides a wide range of important data about people and housing for every community across the nation. The results are used by everyone from planners to retailers to homebuilders and issue stakeholders like you. ACS is a primary source of local data for most of the 40 topics it covers, such as income, education, occupation, language and housing.

Determining What Data are Tabulated
The graphics below illustrate 1) the scroll section that lists the types of tabulation areas (summary levels) and 2) use of the interactive table to display a selection of CBSAs/metros (summary level 310).

ACS 2018 1-Year Summary Levels
The scroll section (see in web page) shows the summary level code (left column), part or component if applicable and summary level name.

ACS 2018 1-Year Estimates — Areas Published — Interactive Table
The interactive table (click link to view actual interactive table) enables you to list the geographic areas tabulated. This graphic shows CBSAs (MSAs and MISAs) tabulated. GeoID1 shows the unique tabulation area geocode for an area among all areas. GeoID1 inlcudes the summary level (first 3 characters), followed by state FIPS code where applicable, ‘US’ and finally the geocode for the specific area.

Demographic-Economic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Examining HMDA/CRA Census Tract Demographics

.. the ability to effectively analyze low, moderate, middle, and upper income population and households by small area geography is important to housing market stakeholders, lenders, investors, cities/neighborhoods and others. Low and moderate income data by block group and census tract are used for compliance, eligibility determination and program performance in many Federal programs and agencies. See the main Web page for more detail.

This section reviews the scope and use of the FFIEC 2019 HMDA/CRA census tract data (released September 2019). Use the interactive table to view, rank, compare selected items from these updated data for any/all tracts. Use GIS tools with these data to map and geospatially analyze these data as illustrated and further described as illustrated here. See more about banking, CRA and LMI tracts and more about these data.

Visual Analysis of Banks in Context Census Tract Demographics
Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

– view developed using CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
– install this GIS tool and related GIS project on your computer to examines patterns, market share and more.

Low & Moderate Income Population by Census Tract
Low, moderate, middle, upper income classification by census tract is based on the median family income of a specific census tract relative to the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) or non-MSA area in which the tract is located. The FFIEC data include a “low and moderate income indicator”:
1 – Low — MFI is less than 50% of the MSA/parent area MFI
2 – Moderate — MFI is from 50% to 80% of the MSA/parent area MFI
3 – Middle — MFI is from 80% to 120% of the MSA/parent area MFI
4 – Upper — MFI is 120% or more of the MSA/parent area MFI
0 – NA — MFI is 0 or not available
where MFI is the Median Family Income

Low and moderate income designation is closely associated with implementation of the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) and the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) and is a widely used in many other applications as a measure of economic prosperity.

Using the Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to examine individual tracts or sets of tracts as to their low and moderate income status and related demographics. The following view illustrates use of the table. Clicking buttons below table, this sequence of steps was used to obtain this view:
– click ShowAll
– click “Find CBSA; Low & Mod Tracts”
  >this selects tract in CBSA 26420 (Houston) that are low or mod
– click “Status Cols”
The table refreshes to show 470 tracts that are low/mod in this metro.
Finally, click the column header “Tract MFI %Region” to sort in descending order.

View your areas of interest. Start the steps over and use your CBSA code for a metro of interest.

Bankers Analytics Tools Web Sessions
Join me in a Bankers Analytic Tools Lab session (every Wednesday 3:00 pm ET) to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.
Topics:
• mapping and geospatially analyzing your data with FFIEC data
• tract demographic vintages and trends
• issues regarding MSA/MD vintage, change; about the 2018 vintage CBSAs
• defining and using assessment area geography
• examining the community & neighborhoods in context of assessment areas
• using the FDIC bank location/deposits data with FFIEC/ACS demographics
• using the FFIEC/ACS interactive table below
• alternative methods of accessing census tract ACS data

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Combined Statistical Area Demographic Trends

.. a Combined Statistical Area (CSA) is a group of two or more adjacent metropolitan areas; they include contiguous metro counties that have demographic-economic affinity. These 172 areas (September 2018 vintage) are important in wide-ranging geographic and demographic analysis. Based on the 2018 population estimate, these areas include 256.2 million population of the total U.S. population of 327.2 million (78.3 percent). CSAs are at least two adjacent metropolitan areas — reflecting a larger and broader market/service/impact assessment area. Due to their size (of many), it is often possible to develop more detailed custom demographic-economic estimates and projections than at the county or metropolitan area level. See more about CSAs in this related Web section.

Patterns of 2018 Population by 2018 CSA
The following graphic shows the September 2018 vintage CSAs based on the 2018 official population estimates. The intervals/colors are depicted in legend panel at left of map window. Create custom maps similar to this view for your regions of interest. Use the GIS project/datasets to examine alternative patterns such as percent change for different time periods. Set queries to include CSAs by peer group. Click graphic for larger view with more detail; expand browser window for best quality view. Larger view shows CSAs labeled with percent population chnage 2010-2018.

– view developed with CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.

Use the GISproject and datasets to examine CSAs in a mapping and geospatial analysis context. The database includes all CSAs and the subject matter described below.

Using the Interactive Table
Use the interactive table (opens new page) to examine patterns and relationships among CSAs of interest. The following static graphic illustrates how the table can be used to rank or query CSAs and display selected columns. Selecting population change columns and ranking in descending order on population change 2010-2018, shows that the Dallas CSA had the largest population … it also shows this CSA was the 7th largest CSA based on 2018 population and 9th on percent population change 2010-2018 … use the table to determine which CSA ranked first on percent population change 2010-2018.

– click graphic for larger view.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
See these applications live/demoed. Run the applications on your own computer.
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Using GIS & GeoDemographics

.. join us in the GIS & GeoDemographics self-paced, online course.

Visual representation, maps, of demographic data by geographic area can be exciting and rewarding. Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can bring maps alive. Creativity is boundless. The banner at the top of the corresponding Web section presents a static view of a map rendered using GIS. This map shows the Los Angeles area by census tract. For the analyst or stakeholder, it shows something more — the percent Asian citizen voting age population by tract, overlayed with Congressional District boundaries and codes. It shows relationships, patterns. Using the power of GIS, the zoom level, colors, legend, and labeling can all be changed immediately. You, the GIS user, are at once analyst, artist and storyteller. In control of your medium, canvas, you further your benefits from use these software and data by making dynamic presentations in collaborations. Make compelling arguments. Capture your views and blend them with words and charts into documents. Welcome to the world of GIS and geodemographics.

Mapping census block demographics
The graphic shown below illustrates use of GIS software with the TIGER digital map database census block shapefile to show census blocks for two Ohio counties in context of 2018 CBSAs/Metros. Clicking on a census block (see pointer) shows a mini profile for that block.

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Using GIS & GeoDemographics .. about the course
Examining geographic-demographic-economic characteristics, patterns and trends … researchers, policymakers, journalists, administrators, students among others. How can you most benefit from using the TIGER geographic data to meet your objectives? These data are available at no cost. Join us in the Using GIS Tools & GeoDemographics online, self-paced course. Learn all aspects of using the Census Bureau TIGER files and related Census-sourced and other Federal statistical data. Augment your professional skills; participants receive all required data, methods and tools. Your personal session is developed and coordinated by Warren Glimpse. You receive the GIS course certificate upon completion. The course may be started at any time and includes requisite Windows-based CV XE GIS software. The course assumes the participant has basic familiarity with a Windows computer, Internet and spreadsheet operations. No GIS related experience is required. Experienced GIS professionals also benefit by learning about the use and nuances of Census-sourced data and integrating these with other data. The structure includes four segments that typically require 2.5 hours each. It is feasible to complete the course in a day or two though we suggest two weeks.

Use Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with TIGER … integrate/analyze data from American Community Survey (ACS) or the decennial census (Census 2010) (Census 2020) into TIGER files to make thematic maps. Merge data from other statistical programs. Geocode your address-based data and add the geocoded data to a GIS project/map view; examine patterns. View your market/service areas and assess competitive position, unmet opportunities. Learn about procedures and strategies to develop GIS projects that meet your needs. Acquire the tools and data to perform these tasks without spending more — provided as a part of our course.

The course is not just about TIGER and demographic-economic data. It provides a well-rounded framework for how to use GIS. While TIGER is a focus, we review procedures to access and use thousands of public use shapefiles and GIS files that may be useful to you. It provides a well-rounded framework for how to use GIS.

Enroll today …
Click the enrollment button/link (opens new page) to enroll now ($395). We will contact you and provide next step information.   Questions? Call us at (800)364-7656.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

The Local Area Monthly Employment Situation

.. in June 2019, the local area unemployment rate ranged from 1.3% (Lyon County, IA) to 19.6% (Yuma County, AZ) among the lower 48 states. 133 counties had an unemployment rate of 7% or more during June 2018 through June 2019. Over the past year, as shown in the this interactive table, the unemployment rate has generally decreased among all counties. We track the local area employment situation historically and develop alternative scenario projections. See the related Web page for more information.

Patterns of Unemployment Rate by County
The following graphic shows patterns of the estimated June 2019 unemployment rate by county. Use the GIS tools and data to develop variations of this view optionally integrated with other data. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser window for best quality view.

— view created using the ProximityOne CV XE GIS and associated GIS Project

Examine Areas of Interest
This graphic illustrates the monthly over the year employment situation for the Houston, TX metro using the interactive table.

Click graphic for larger view.

Create a similar table for any metro:
Open the interactive table (green and white table midway down).
Click ShowAll button below table.
Key in a 5-character metro code in edit box at right of FindCBSACode.
    … get from scroll list at upper right of table.
    … e.g., 19100 for Dallas, TX metro.
Click FindCBSACode; table refreshes showing only counties in this metro.
Click Current Situation button below table; table refreshes with selected columns.
Click the Pop2018 column header cell twice to rank-order the columns.
Done .. try these steps for an area of interest.

Demographic-Economic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Visualizing Metro Area Geography

.. metropolitan areas are referred to as CBSAs (Core-Based Statistical Areas) and formally defined as sets of contiguous counties for the Federal Statistical System by OMB based largely on Census Bureau data.  More than 93-percent of the U.S. population live in CBSAs. This post presents three map graphics showing the geographic configuration of CBSAs and related CSAs (Combined Statistical Areas) — groupings of contiguous CBSAs that meet certain criteria. See related Web section for more detail.

The graphics below use the September 2018 CBSA vintage, the current and likely to be used for Census 2020 tabulations. These CBSAs are comprised of 392 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), 384 MSAs in the U.S. and 8 in Puerto Rico, and 546 Micropolitan Statistical Areas (MISAs), 542 in the U.S. and 4 in Puerto Rico. For those MSAs that qualify, 11 MSAs are subdivided into 31 Metropolitan Divisions (MDs).

Metro Demographic-Economic Insights. What are the demographic characteristics of metros, how are they changing? We have developed annual population and population components of change estimates for the September 2018 vintage CBSAs.  Access these data in this interactive table. View CBSA county components. These data are integrated with other data to develop wide-ranging demographic-economic current estimates and projections for CBSAs and other geography (Situation & Outlook).

Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Sep 2018 Vintage
The following graphic shows the 2018 vintage Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Use the associated GIS project to examine different years or subject matter items. Click graphic for larger view showing combined MSAs and MISAs.
Expand browser window for best quality view.


.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
.. create other views, geospatially analyze your data with associated GIS project.

Micropolitan Statistical Areas, Sep 2018 Vintage
The following graphic shows the 2018 vintage Micropolitan Statistical Areas (MISAs). Use the associated GIS project to examine different years or subject matter items. Click graphic for larger view showing combined MSAs and MISAs. Expand browser window for best quality view.


.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
.. create other views, geospatially analyze your data with associated GIS project.

Combined Statistical Areas, Sep 2018 Vintage
The following graphic shows the 2018 vintage Combined Statistical Areas (CSAs).
CSAs are contiguous CBSAs that are combined to form a CSA when certain conditions are met. Use the associated GIS project to examine different years or subject matter items. Click graphic for larger view showing CSAs with county overlay (visually determining which counties are in a CSA). Expand browser window for best quality view.


.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
.. create other views, geospatially analyze your data with associated GIS project.

DemographicEconomic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Census Tract Demographic-Economic Characteristics & Trends

..  Census tract demographics are used in wide-ranging public and private sector applications to examine patterns and characteristics of sub-county areas. Tract level data from Census 2000, Census 2010 and the American Community Survey (ACS) can be used to analyze trade/market areas, neighborhoods and other small area study areas. But what about more current data and trends since 2010? What about business establishment data and other subject matter not included in either the census or ACS data?

There are no current demographic-economic census tract data available from the Census Bureau or other Federal statistical programs. Annually released ACS 5-year estimates are available by census tract but are for 5-year periods and dated. The most recent census tract level ACS data are based on the ACS 2017 5-year estimates (ACS 1317). Those data are not for the year 2017 but estimates for ACS survey respondents for the 5 year period 2013-2017; centric to mid-2015.

Patterns of Median Household Income %Change by Census Tract
The graphic below shows patterns of economic prosperity change based on median household income percent change ACS 2012 to ACS 2017 by tract in the Dallas metro area.

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Using the Interactive Table
Use the interactive table .. click this link .. to view, query, rank, compare selected characteristics of the population, housing, educational attainment and income for census tracts based on ACS 2012 5-year, and ACS 2017 5-year data. Hundreds of additional items are available. See about related census tract data resources and applications.

Try it yourself ..
Tracts with ACS 2017 population 3,500-4,500 ranked on change in $MHI:
Replicate the following graphic using the interactive table. This view was produced by clicking the Pop17 button below the table to select only tracts with a ACS 2017 population between 3,500 and 4,500. Then the $MHI columns button was clicked to view only selected columns. Finally the qualifying tracts were sorted in descending order by clicking the $MHI Change column header cell.

Based on these estimates, tract 04013105004 in Maricopa County, AZ is top ranked, where the $MHI increased by $97,723 from the ACS 2012 5-year period to the ACS 2017 5-year period.

Corresponding API calls to access the $MHI for this tract (click links to access data):
ACS 2012 $MHI … ACS 2017 $MHI
Join us in an upcoming Data Analytics Web Session (see below) to learn more about using APIs to access these data and similar data.

Access more detailed ACS 2017 tract interactive tables:
  General demographics .. Social .. Economic .. Housing

Demographic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.