Outlook 2060

.. reach this blog at http://outlook2060.com .. see related Demographics 2060 .. this blog focuses on topics regarding the current situation and outlook .. what is happening now, historical trends and into the future .. geographic, demographic and economic characteristics for wide-ranging types of geography .. what will change where, when, by how much .. and how change might it impact you .. data resources and tools enabling a deeper dive; relating to decision-making. Get email updates when posted, click button at right. Planned topics in week of (month ahead):
.. what these new data are telling us in context of other data; accessing the data ..

116th Congressional Districts & Patterns of Economic Prosperity

.. Congressional District Analysis and Insights .. tools to examine patterns of median household income .. median household income is one measure of economic prosperity. This section reviews patterns of median household income (MHI) by 116th Congressional Districts based on the 2018 American Community Survey 1-year estimates (ACS 2018). View, rank, compare the MHI by congressional district, among related demographic attributes using the interactive table on the main Congressional Districts page.

116th Congressional District Analysis & Insights
.. patterns of household income & economic prosperity:
Based on the ACS 2018 median household income (MHI):
• the MHI among all districts was $60,291
• the U.S. overall MHI was $61,937
As of November 2019:
• the 19 districts with highest MHI have Democrat incumbents
• the 10 districts with the highest Gini Index have Democrat incumbents
• there are 69 Republican incumbent districts above the all districts MHI
• there are 149 Democrat incumbent districts above the all districts MHI
• the MHI of the 236 Democrat incumbent districts is $66,829
• the MHI of the 199 Republican incumbent districts is $56,505
Median household income is only one measure of economic prosperity.
See more at http://proximityone.com/cd.htm.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity 116th Congressional District
The following graphic shows patterns of 2018 median household income by 116th Congressional District. Use GIS tools/data to generate similar views for any state and/or drill-down. Click graphic for larger view with more detail. Expand browser window for best quality view.

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Using the Interactive Table –
— view, rank, compare districts based on your criteria.
— example,which districts have the highest median household income?
Use the interactive table to examine incumbency and and demographic characteristics of the 116th Congressional Districts (CDs). The following view illustrates use of the table. This view shows use a query to show the ten CDs having highest 2018 median household income.

Try using the interactive table to existing districts and categories of interest.

Congressional District/State Legislative District Group
Join in .. be a part of the Congressional Districts/State Legislative District (CDSLD) group. Access analytical tools and data. Learn about CDSLD analytics, patterns and trends. Share insights with like-minded stakeholders.

Demographic-Economic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Personal Consumption Expenditures by Type & State

.. using Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measures to monitor/examine the strength of a regional economy and consumer buying trends in that region and compare among regions … PCE estimates released in October 2019, show that state personal consumption expenditures increased 5.1 percent in 2018, an acceleration from the 4.4 percent increase in 2017. The percent change in PCE across all states ranged from 7.3 percent in Utah to 3.6 percent in West Virginia.

In 2018, across all states and D.C., per capita PCE was $42,757. Per capita PCE by state ranged from a high of $55,095 (MA) to a low of $31,083 (MS). Per capita PCE in D.C. $63,151. Use the interactive table to example per capita and total PCE by state for 24 categories annually 2010 to 2018.

Per Capita Personal Consumption Expenditures by Category; U.S. 2018
— how does your situation and areas of interest compare to U.S. overall?
— view, sort, query by state and year in the interactive table

Goods and services purchased by people are personal consumption expenditures (PCE). These data provide insights into the strength of a state economy and consumer buying trends. As a major component of GDP, PCE growth has recently accounted for much of the GDP growth. The data reviewed in this section are developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA, released each October). ProximityOne develops regional PCE estimates by metro and county. More about PCE.

See related sections:
• State Real Median Household Income
• State Annual Gross Domestic Product by Industry

Per Capita Consumption Expenditures by State, 2018
The following graphic shows patterns of 2018 per capita personal income expenditures (PCE). Intervals show distribution in quintiles, equal number of states per interval. The 2018 U.S. per capita PCE was $42,757. Use CV XE GIS project to examine PCE by types, per cpaita vs total, different years and change. Integrate additional subject matter and types of geography. Click graphic for larger view with details. Expand browser window for bets quality view.

– view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project & datasets.

Using the Interactive Table
— which areas have the highest health care expenditures?
Use the interactive table to examine personal consumption expenditures by type and state annually for the period 2010-2018. The following view illustrates use of the table. This view shows use a query to examine only health care expenditures. The table was then sorted in descending order to show the areas with the highest per capita health care expenditures in 2018.

Try using the interactive table to existing states or categories of interest.

Demographic-Economic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

U.S. & State Real Median Household Income Trends

.. during the past two years, 2017 and 2018, the real median household income increased by $1,627. Some states experienced a decline in real median household income in the past two years. During the previous two years, 2015 and 2016, the real median household income increased by $3,329. See details in interactive table (opens new page).

Real median household income in the U.S. increased 0.8 percent between the 2017 ACS and 2018 ACS based on the American Community Survey (ACS 2018). The U.S. MHI, based on ACS 2018 (released September 2019), was $61,937. The national MHI has been increasing since 2013. The increase from 2017 is smaller than the prior 3 years, during which MHI increased between 1.8 percent and 3.3 percent annually. This was the second consecutive year that U.S. MHI was higher than 2007.

Household income as used here is the combined gross income of all members of a household, defined as a group of people living together, who are 15 years or older. The median household income is used to examine the economic health of an area or to compare living conditions between geographic regions.

Use the interactive table and related Geographic Information System (GIS) resources to examine income trends and geographic patterns. See details on using GIS project.

Patterns of Real Median Household Income Change; 2016-2018
— change during two calendar years labeled with 2018 real MHI
— click link for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
– geospatial analyze income characteristics integrated with your data to examine patterns; gain insights.

Median Household Income in the United States: 2005–2018

U.S. & State Median Household Income: Annually 2005–2018 — Interactive Table
The following static graphic illustrates use of the U.S. & State MHI interactive table. This view shows the 10 states/areas ranked on the 2018 real median household income. See pointer, note that D.C. had the highest real 2018 MHI.  

Try it yourself. Use the table to examine different patterns … like which states experienced a decline in a selected year or over a selected period.

Alternative Measures of MHI
There are other ways to measure/estimate MHI. Possibly the most notable alternative is the Census/BLS Current Population Survey (CPS). This topic will be covered in an upcoming blog .. and how ACS and CPS MHI estimates differ. While the CPS can be used to develop state and higher level geography estimates, ACS might be preferred as MHI estimates can also be developed for counties, cities, census tracts and block groups .. and many other political/statistical areas not possible using CPS.

Demographic-Economic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

American Community Survey 2018: Geography & Access

.. there are 519 core-Based Statistical Areas (metros & micros) included as American Community Survey (ACS) 2018 tabulation areas. 2018 demographic-economic estimates are included for these and many other types of political/statistical areas — the subject of this section. This is the first in a series of posts about accessing, integrating and using the ACS 2018 data. Learn more about effective ways to use these and related data. See the main web section for more detail and access to the interactive table. The release date for the ACS 2018 data is September 26, 2019.

ACS 2018 1-year Tabulation Areas: 519 Core-Based Statistical Areas
— MSAs and MISAs

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
– geospatial analyze ACS 2018 1 year estimates integrated with your data to examine patterns; gain insights.

The 2018 American Community Survey (ACS 2018 main) is a nationwide survey designed to provide annually updated demographic-economic data for national and sub-national geography. ACS provides a wide range of important data about people and housing for every community across the nation. The results are used by everyone from planners to retailers to homebuilders and issue stakeholders like you. ACS is a primary source of local data for most of the 40 topics it covers, such as income, education, occupation, language and housing.

Determining What Data are Tabulated
The graphics below illustrate 1) the scroll section that lists the types of tabulation areas (summary levels) and 2) use of the interactive table to display a selection of CBSAs/metros (summary level 310).

ACS 2018 1-Year Summary Levels
The scroll section (see in web page) shows the summary level code (left column), part or component if applicable and summary level name.

ACS 2018 1-Year Estimates — Areas Published — Interactive Table
The interactive table (click link to view actual interactive table) enables you to list the geographic areas tabulated. This graphic shows CBSAs (MSAs and MISAs) tabulated. GeoID1 shows the unique tabulation area geocode for an area among all areas. GeoID1 inlcudes the summary level (first 3 characters), followed by state FIPS code where applicable, ‘US’ and finally the geocode for the specific area.

Demographic-Economic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Examining HMDA/CRA Census Tract Demographics

.. the ability to effectively analyze low, moderate, middle, and upper income population and households by small area geography is important to housing market stakeholders, lenders, investors, cities/neighborhoods and others. Low and moderate income data by block group and census tract are used for compliance, eligibility determination and program performance in many Federal programs and agencies. See the main Web page for more detail.

This section reviews the scope and use of the FFIEC 2019 HMDA/CRA census tract data (released September 2019). Use the interactive table to view, rank, compare selected items from these updated data for any/all tracts. Use GIS tools with these data to map and geospatially analyze these data as illustrated and further described as illustrated here. See more about banking, CRA and LMI tracts and more about these data.

Visual Analysis of Banks in Context Census Tract Demographics
Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

– view developed using CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
– install this GIS tool and related GIS project on your computer to examines patterns, market share and more.

Low & Moderate Income Population by Census Tract
Low, moderate, middle, upper income classification by census tract is based on the median family income of a specific census tract relative to the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) or non-MSA area in which the tract is located. The FFIEC data include a “low and moderate income indicator”:
1 – Low — MFI is less than 50% of the MSA/parent area MFI
2 – Moderate — MFI is from 50% to 80% of the MSA/parent area MFI
3 – Middle — MFI is from 80% to 120% of the MSA/parent area MFI
4 – Upper — MFI is 120% or more of the MSA/parent area MFI
0 – NA — MFI is 0 or not available
where MFI is the Median Family Income

Low and moderate income designation is closely associated with implementation of the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) and the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) and is a widely used in many other applications as a measure of economic prosperity.

Using the Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to examine individual tracts or sets of tracts as to their low and moderate income status and related demographics. The following view illustrates use of the table. Clicking buttons below table, this sequence of steps was used to obtain this view:
– click ShowAll
– click “Find CBSA; Low & Mod Tracts”
  >this selects tract in CBSA 26420 (Houston) that are low or mod
– click “Status Cols”
The table refreshes to show 470 tracts that are low/mod in this metro.
Finally, click the column header “Tract MFI %Region” to sort in descending order.

View your areas of interest. Start the steps over and use your CBSA code for a metro of interest.

Bankers Analytics Tools Web Sessions
Join me in a Bankers Analytic Tools Lab session (every Wednesday 3:00 pm ET) to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.
Topics:
• mapping and geospatially analyzing your data with FFIEC data
• tract demographic vintages and trends
• issues regarding MSA/MD vintage, change; about the 2018 vintage CBSAs
• defining and using assessment area geography
• examining the community & neighborhoods in context of assessment areas
• using the FDIC bank location/deposits data with FFIEC/ACS demographics
• using the FFIEC/ACS interactive table below
• alternative methods of accessing census tract ACS data

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Combined Statistical Area Demographic Trends

.. a Combined Statistical Area (CSA) is a group of two or more adjacent metropolitan areas; they include contiguous metro counties that have demographic-economic affinity. These 172 areas (September 2018 vintage) are important in wide-ranging geographic and demographic analysis. Based on the 2018 population estimate, these areas include 256.2 million population of the total U.S. population of 327.2 million (78.3 percent). CSAs are at least two adjacent metropolitan areas — reflecting a larger and broader market/service/impact assessment area. Due to their size (of many), it is often possible to develop more detailed custom demographic-economic estimates and projections than at the county or metropolitan area level. See more about CSAs in this related Web section.

Patterns of 2018 Population by 2018 CSA
The following graphic shows the September 2018 vintage CSAs based on the 2018 official population estimates. The intervals/colors are depicted in legend panel at left of map window. Create custom maps similar to this view for your regions of interest. Use the GIS project/datasets to examine alternative patterns such as percent change for different time periods. Set queries to include CSAs by peer group. Click graphic for larger view with more detail; expand browser window for best quality view. Larger view shows CSAs labeled with percent population chnage 2010-2018.

– view developed with CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.

Use the GISproject and datasets to examine CSAs in a mapping and geospatial analysis context. The database includes all CSAs and the subject matter described below.

Using the Interactive Table
Use the interactive table (opens new page) to examine patterns and relationships among CSAs of interest. The following static graphic illustrates how the table can be used to rank or query CSAs and display selected columns. Selecting population change columns and ranking in descending order on population change 2010-2018, shows that the Dallas CSA had the largest population … it also shows this CSA was the 7th largest CSA based on 2018 population and 9th on percent population change 2010-2018 … use the table to determine which CSA ranked first on percent population change 2010-2018.

– click graphic for larger view.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
See these applications live/demoed. Run the applications on your own computer.
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Using GIS & GeoDemographics

.. join us in the GIS & GeoDemographics self-paced, online course.

Visual representation, maps, of demographic data by geographic area can be exciting and rewarding. Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can bring maps alive. Creativity is boundless. The banner at the top of the corresponding Web section presents a static view of a map rendered using GIS. This map shows the Los Angeles area by census tract. For the analyst or stakeholder, it shows something more — the percent Asian citizen voting age population by tract, overlayed with Congressional District boundaries and codes. It shows relationships, patterns. Using the power of GIS, the zoom level, colors, legend, and labeling can all be changed immediately. You, the GIS user, are at once analyst, artist and storyteller. In control of your medium, canvas, you further your benefits from use these software and data by making dynamic presentations in collaborations. Make compelling arguments. Capture your views and blend them with words and charts into documents. Welcome to the world of GIS and geodemographics.

Mapping census block demographics
The graphic shown below illustrates use of GIS software with the TIGER digital map database census block shapefile to show census blocks for two Ohio counties in context of 2018 CBSAs/Metros. Clicking on a census block (see pointer) shows a mini profile for that block.

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Using GIS & GeoDemographics .. about the course
Examining geographic-demographic-economic characteristics, patterns and trends … researchers, policymakers, journalists, administrators, students among others. How can you most benefit from using the TIGER geographic data to meet your objectives? These data are available at no cost. Join us in the Using GIS Tools & GeoDemographics online, self-paced course. Learn all aspects of using the Census Bureau TIGER files and related Census-sourced and other Federal statistical data. Augment your professional skills; participants receive all required data, methods and tools. Your personal session is developed and coordinated by Warren Glimpse. You receive the GIS course certificate upon completion. The course may be started at any time and includes requisite Windows-based CV XE GIS software. The course assumes the participant has basic familiarity with a Windows computer, Internet and spreadsheet operations. No GIS related experience is required. Experienced GIS professionals also benefit by learning about the use and nuances of Census-sourced data and integrating these with other data. The structure includes four segments that typically require 2.5 hours each. It is feasible to complete the course in a day or two though we suggest two weeks.

Use Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with TIGER … integrate/analyze data from American Community Survey (ACS) or the decennial census (Census 2010) (Census 2020) into TIGER files to make thematic maps. Merge data from other statistical programs. Geocode your address-based data and add the geocoded data to a GIS project/map view; examine patterns. View your market/service areas and assess competitive position, unmet opportunities. Learn about procedures and strategies to develop GIS projects that meet your needs. Acquire the tools and data to perform these tasks without spending more — provided as a part of our course.

The course is not just about TIGER and demographic-economic data. It provides a well-rounded framework for how to use GIS. While TIGER is a focus, we review procedures to access and use thousands of public use shapefiles and GIS files that may be useful to you. It provides a well-rounded framework for how to use GIS.

Enroll today …
Click the enrollment button/link (opens new page) to enroll now ($395). We will contact you and provide next step information.   Questions? Call us at (800)364-7656.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.