Outlook 2060

.. reach this blog at http://outlook2060.com .. see related Demographics 2060 .. this blog focuses on topics regarding the current situation and outlook .. what is happening now, historical trends and into the future .. geographic, demographic and economic characteristics for wide-ranging types of geography .. what will change where, when, by how much .. and how change might it impact you .. data resources and tools enabling a deeper dive; relating to decision-making. Get email updates when posted, click button at right. Planned topics in week of (month ahead):
.. what these new data are telling us in context of other data; accessing the data ..

Visualizing Metro Area Geography

.. metropolitan areas are referred to as CBSAs (Core-Based Statistical Areas) and formally defined as sets of contiguous counties for the Federal Statistical System by OMB based largely on Census Bureau data.  More than 93-percent of the U.S. population live in CBSAs. This post presents three map graphics showing the geographic configuration of CBSAs and related CSAs (Combined Statistical Areas) — groupings of contiguous CBSAs that meet certain criteria. See related Web section for more detail.

The graphics below use the September 2018 CBSA vintage, the current and likely to be used for Census 2020 tabulations. These CBSAs are comprised of 392 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), 384 MSAs in the U.S. and 8 in Puerto Rico, and 546 Micropolitan Statistical Areas (MISAs), 542 in the U.S. and 4 in Puerto Rico. For those MSAs that qualify, 11 MSAs are subdivided into 31 Metropolitan Divisions (MDs).

Metro Demographic-Economic Insights. What are the demographic characteristics of metros, how are they changing? We have developed annual population and population components of change estimates for the September 2018 vintage CBSAs.  Access these data in this interactive table. View CBSA county components. These data are integrated with other data to develop wide-ranging demographic-economic current estimates and projections for CBSAs and other geography (Situation & Outlook).

Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Sep 2018 Vintage
The following graphic shows the 2018 vintage Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Use the associated GIS project to examine different years or subject matter items. Click graphic for larger view showing combined MSAs and MISAs.
Expand browser window for best quality view.


.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
.. create other views, geospatially analyze your data with associated GIS project.

Micropolitan Statistical Areas, Sep 2018 Vintage
The following graphic shows the 2018 vintage Micropolitan Statistical Areas (MISAs). Use the associated GIS project to examine different years or subject matter items. Click graphic for larger view showing combined MSAs and MISAs. Expand browser window for best quality view.


.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
.. create other views, geospatially analyze your data with associated GIS project.

Combined Statistical Areas, Sep 2018 Vintage
The following graphic shows the 2018 vintage Combined Statistical Areas (CSAs).
CSAs are contiguous CBSAs that are combined to form a CSA when certain conditions are met. Use the associated GIS project to examine different years or subject matter items. Click graphic for larger view showing CSAs with county overlay (visually determining which counties are in a CSA). Expand browser window for best quality view.


.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
.. create other views, geospatially analyze your data with associated GIS project.

DemographicEconomic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Census Tract Demographic-Economic Characteristics & Trends

..  Census tract demographics are used in wide-ranging public and private sector applications to examine patterns and characteristics of sub-county areas. Tract level data from Census 2000, Census 2010 and the American Community Survey (ACS) can be used to analyze trade/market areas, neighborhoods and other small area study areas. But what about more current data and trends since 2010? What about business establishment data and other subject matter not included in either the census or ACS data?

There are no current demographic-economic census tract data available from the Census Bureau or other Federal statistical programs. Annually released ACS 5-year estimates are available by census tract but are for 5-year periods and dated. The most recent census tract level ACS data are based on the ACS 2017 5-year estimates (ACS 1317). Those data are not for the year 2017 but estimates for ACS survey respondents for the 5 year period 2013-2017; centric to mid-2015.

Patterns of Median Household Income %Change by Census Tract
The graphic below shows patterns of economic prosperity change based on median household income percent change ACS 2012 to ACS 2017 by tract in the Dallas metro area.

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Using the Interactive Table
Use the interactive table .. click this link .. to view, query, rank, compare selected characteristics of the population, housing, educational attainment and income for census tracts based on ACS 2012 5-year, and ACS 2017 5-year data. Hundreds of additional items are available. See about related census tract data resources and applications.

Try it yourself ..
Tracts with ACS 2017 population 3,500-4,500 ranked on change in $MHI:
Replicate the following graphic using the interactive table. This view was produced by clicking the Pop17 button below the table to select only tracts with a ACS 2017 population between 3,500 and 4,500. Then the $MHI columns button was clicked to view only selected columns. Finally the qualifying tracts were sorted in descending order by clicking the $MHI Change column header cell.

Based on these estimates, tract 04013105004 in Maricopa County, AZ is top ranked, where the $MHI increased by $97,723 from the ACS 2012 5-year period to the ACS 2017 5-year period.

Corresponding API calls to access the $MHI for this tract (click links to access data):
ACS 2012 $MHI … ACS 2017 $MHI
Join us in an upcoming Data Analytics Web Session (see below) to learn more about using APIs to access these data and similar data.

Access more detailed ACS 2017 tract interactive tables:
  General demographics .. Social .. Economic .. Housing

Demographic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

State of the States: 2019

.. the State of the States reports and information service provide insights into demographic, economic & business characteristics.  Unique in their composition,  updated daily/weekly, the reports summarize what’s changing where & when and assessing what’s ahead. It organizes disparate Federal statistical data and presents those data in an organized, consumable manner. A resource to help determine how change might affect you, it is an indispensable resource for investors, leaders, policymakers, researchers and decision-makers. See State of the States main section for more information.  Your briefing notes, organized by state.

Some details .. the U.S. economy is slowing, dragged down by trade tensions and weak growth overseas. But there are few signs that the decade-long expansion is on the verge of stalling out. Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy, rose at a 2.1 percent annual rate in 2019Q2, down from 3.1 percent in 2019Q1, according to preliminary data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 7/26/19.

But what about the states, and what about related measures? In Texas, the 2019Q1 change from 2018Q4 was 5.1 percent annual rate. Texas ranked 2nd among all states. The 2019Q2 state GDP will be posted in section 6.5 on Nov. 7, 2019 (see in scheduled updates). How does Texas compare to other states and the U.S.  Answers are organized in the reports.  Create insights. Share with others.

Part of a multi-dimensional information resource, the state of the states report has been derived from the Situation & Outlook (S&O) database, updated daily. ProximityOne uses the historical S&O database to develop current demographic-economic estimate and projections.

View the U.S. or a State Report .. click a link
.. illustrative reports .. see more about report structure & options in report.
United States
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Demographic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

The Value of Demographic Insights

.. its a global thing, a community thing, a business thing, a personal thing … demographics tell us about how, when, where we have changed and how we might change in the future .. and how that change might impact you .. us.

How & Why are County Demographics Changing?
The following graphic shows how counties have gained population (blue and green) and lost population (orange and red) during the period 2010 to 2018. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view. What are the insights from these data, this view? How are the insights developed? Their application and use creates the value. .
– developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS.

Access these data for areas of interest:
– U.S. by state interactive table.
– U.S. by metro interactive table.
– U.S. by county interactive table.
– U.S. by city interactive table.
– U.S. by census tract interactive table.

An example of the “tip of the iceberg,” the above model-based demographic data have been developed for use in developing the more detailed American Community Survey annual demographic data — annual updates on demographics down to the block group level of geography. ~217,000 areas covering the U.S. wall-to-wall.

Valuation of Demographic Insights
Having the required demographic data is needed before value can be assigned to their use. It’s really not possible to value demographic data or insights on a financial basis alone. But here are some considerations. One way to assign a value to demographic data is on the cost basis. The above data have been developed by the Census Bureau. But they are not free to develop — the costs for the Federal programs to produce them and the cost for others providing access to the data and using them.

These demographic data enable an unestimable number of studies that result in an unestimable set of decisions in the private and public sector. Many evolve into useful insights, but certainly not all.

Census 2020 is will cost in excess of $16 billion. That’s just to get the data out there. The value of these demographic data have to be in the many trillions or much more. Plus, these demographics enable things that can be done that cannot be done with any other set of demographic data. This “uniqueness thread” runs through many demographic data programs. What is the value of being able to apportion Congress, state legislatures and thousands of other governmental bodies?

How to assign value to one decision based substantially on geodemographics?

What about the byproducts? Census 2020 relies heavily on the Census produced (with the indispensable involvement of regional governments) TIGER/Line geographic database. In essence, we have a demographic data program producing a geographic database. It can be argued that the public use TIGER database is the most valuable past of the decennial census. TIGER provides the digital map database undergirding all widely used mapservers such as Google maps and Bing. It provides the unique and near comprehensive set of standardized geographic data going down to the intersection-to-intersection street segment. It enables a near infinite set of Geographic Information System (GIS) applications.

The above addresses mainly matters of demographic data developed on a national scale. All businesses deal in their own demographics daily. This set of demographic data minimally includes staff and related consultants, etc. plus prospects and clients/customers. Many businesses do not take advantage of the potential benefits of having these data. They can often do more to use their own data, and data of competitors and about the market, to develop improved plans to meet their goals.

Demographic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

  

County Housing Patterns & Trends

.. at a time when “housing costs are going through the roof” and “affordable housing” are topics widely in play, current housing data at the county level are essential for business and public policy planning. In this section, new Census Bureau U.S. by county 2018 housing unit estimates are viewed .. and tools to access and use these data.

Patterns of Housing Unit Percent Change by County: 2010-2018
The graphic below shows patterns of county housing unit percent change from 2010 to 2018. Click graphic for larger view showing more detail.

– view developed using CV XE GIS software and associated GIS project.
– create similar maps for counties/areas using CV XE GIS & associated GIS project.

This section reviews the new 2018 county housing unit estimates (released May 2019) and tools and applications to analyze them. See more about topics covered here in this related Web section.

The U.S. housing stock grew by more than 1.15 million from 2017 to 2018, reaching over 138.5 million units. The growth rate of 0.8 percent from 2017 to 2018. The national housing stock increased by 6.7 million units (5.1 percent) between 7/1/2010 and 7/1/2018. But housing stock change was far from even as shown in the graphic presented above.

Total housing units are the “tip of the iceberg” to examine housing market characteristics. Yet, there are no other Federal statistical data for any other housing attribute for every county more recent than circa mid-2015. Those data are from the American Community Survey 5-year estimates for the period 2013-2017 — data going on 4 years old. For example, there are no Federal statistical data for all counties for the 2018 number of households or vacant units … let alone measures that would enable computing the size and location of affordable housing, one of many important housing market attributes. Use related 2018 and projected housing market data developed by ProximityOne available as part of the Situation & Outlook demographic-economic estimates and projections. Examine these data in context with other geographic and market characteristics in the metro Situation & Outlook reports.

Using the Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to view, rank, compare states and counties based on number of units annually 2010 to 2018 and related measures. Compare counties among metros or states .. or peer groups based on size. Here are two examples of using the table.

Largest Counties based on 2018 Housing Units
.. ranked on 2018 housing units .. click for larger view

Counties with 10,000 or more 2018 Housing Units
.. ranked on percent change 2010-2018 .. click for larger view

Data Analytics Web Sessions
See these applications live/demoed. Run the applications on your own computer.
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Examining Economic Well-Being by Metro

.. examining the state of economic well-being: 2008-2017 .. expanding insights through data analytics .. tools and data to examine how and where the U.S. by metropolitan area real personal income is changing.  Real per capita personal income (RPCPI) is the best single measure of personal economic-well being. By examining RPCPI trends over a period, stakeholders can better determine if the area in improving, stable or declining. Still, RPCPI is but one important measure among many others, such as the Regional Price Parities (RPP). Use the interactive table, and related GIS tools, to examine these and other real personal income measures for the Nation’s 383 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). See related Web section for more detail.

Based on data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in May 2019, see about in statistical release dates, real state personal income grew 2.6 percent in 2017, after increasing 1.5 percent in 2016. Real state personal income is a state’s current-dollar personal income adjusted by the state’s regional price parity and the national personal consumption expenditures price index. Across metropolitan areas, the percent change ranged from 14.8 percent in Midland, MI to -5.9 percent in Enid, OK

Visually Examining Patterns of Economic Well-Being
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools provide a powerful to explore these data. The following graphic shows a view of real per capita personal income (RPCPI), 2017, for Texas MSAs. Color patterns for levels of RPCPI are shown in the inset legend. MSAs are labeled with the 2017 RPCPI rank among all U.S. MSAs. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view. The larger view shows MSAs labeled with short name and a mini-profile for Harris County (pointer).

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Using the Interactive table
The interactive table (click link to view/use) includes a row for the U.S., U.S. nonmetro area and each Metropolitan Statistical Area (383). Each row provides a 2008-17 annual time series for four items (and derived items): real per capita personal income, regional prices parities-all items, total real personal income, implicit regional price deflator.

The following graphic shows these areas ranked on RPCPI in 2017. See rightmost column rank. Click graphic for larger view. Midland, TX MSA has the 4th highest 2017 RPCPI (shown in blue; also shown in blue in the map graphic above). But … that metro experienced a decrease of 12.1 percent over the period 2010-2017 .. and down from a high RPCPI of $115,069 in 2014. The dynamics of the oil industry!

Data Analytics Web Sessions
See these applications live/demoed. Run the applications on your own computer.
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Mapping Census Tracts & Opportunity Zones

.. using the U.S. by census tract shapefile in the CV XE GIS US1 GIS project .. a no fee resource to ProximityOne User Group members (a no cost program, join here) .. view, locate, examine, map, geospatially analyze census tract geodemographics — in context of other geography and subject matter.

Census Tracts in Las Vegas Area

– create this type of map for any area in the U.S.
– use the CV XE GIS software with the default US1 GIS project.
– no cost to ProximityOne User Group members.

Click graphic above for larger view showing zoom-in. Tracts in larger view are labeled with tract code and ACS 2017 total population. See related ACS 2017 census tract interactive table with extended demographics.

The U.S. census tract shapefile has been added to the ProximityOne “US1” GIS project (included with installation). We have made it easy and free to visually locate census tracts of interest and view the boundaries in context of counties and general topology. Install CV XE GIS or run update if already installed. Examining tracts related to the Opportunity Zones? Each tract includes an identifier enabling you to select or find only those tracts.

See step-by step details on using these resources.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
See these applications live/demoed. Run the applications on your own computer.
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.