Outlook 2060

.. reach this blog at http://outlook2060.com .. see related Demographics 2060 .. this blog focuses on topics regarding the current situation and outlook .. what is happening now, historical trends and into the future .. geographic, demographic and economic characteristics for wide-ranging types of geography .. what will change where, when, by how much .. and how change might it impact you .. data resources and tools enabling a deeper dive; relating to decision-making. Get email updates when posted, click button at right. Planned topics in week of (month ahead):
.. what these new data are telling us in context of other data; accessing the data ..
• 05/27 .. K-12 Schools: Sources & Uses of Funds by School District
• 05/27 .. City/SubCounty Population Patterns & Trends; New 2018 Estimates
• 05/27 .. Housing Patterns & Trends by County/Metro; New 2018 Estimates
• 05/27 .. City/County Building Permits; Monthly Update; 2019M4
• 06/03 .. Housing Price Index; Metro+ Patterns & Trends; 2019Q1
• 06/03 .. Local Area Employment Situation; City/County/Metro; 2019M4
• 06/03 .. Diversity Patterns by County; An Update
• 06/10 .. Establishments, Employment, Earnings; County/Metro; QCEW 2018Q4
• 06/17 .. Population by Age-Gender-Race/Origin; County; 2018 Annual Update
• 06/24 .. State Quarterly Personal Income; 2019Q1
• 06/24 .. City/County Building Permits; Monthly Update; 2019M5
• 06/24 .. CES Metro Employment, Hours, Earnings; 2019M5

Examining Economic Well-Being by Metro

.. examining the state of economic well-being: 2008-2017 .. expanding insights through data analytics .. tools and data to examine how and where the U.S. by metropolitan area real personal income is changing.  Real per capita personal income (RPCPI) is the best single measure of personal economic-well being. By examining RPCPI trends over a period, stakeholders can better determine if the area in improving, stable or declining. Still, RPCPI is but one important measure among many others, such as the Regional Price Parities (RPP). Use the interactive table, and related GIS tools, to examine these and other real personal income measures for the Nation’s 383 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). See related Web section for more detail.

Based on data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in May 2019, see about in statistical release dates, real state personal income grew 2.6 percent in 2017, after increasing 1.5 percent in 2016. Real state personal income is a state’s current-dollar personal income adjusted by the state’s regional price parity and the national personal consumption expenditures price index. Across metropolitan areas, the percent change ranged from 14.8 percent in Midland, MI to -5.9 percent in Enid, OK

Visually Examining Patterns of Economic Well-Being
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools provide a powerful to explore these data. The following graphic shows a view of real per capita personal income (RPCPI), 2017, for Texas MSAs. Color patterns for levels of RPCPI are shown in the inset legend. MSAs are labeled with the 2017 RPCPI rank among all U.S. MSAs. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view. The larger view shows MSAs labeled with short name and a mini-profile for Harris County (pointer).

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Using the Interactive table
The interactive table (click link to view/use) includes a row for the U.S., U.S. nonmetro area and each Metropolitan Statistical Area (383). Each row provides a 2008-17 annual time series for four items (and derived items): real per capita personal income, regional prices parities-all items, total real personal income, implicit regional price deflator.

The following graphic shows these areas ranked on RPCPI in 2017. See rightmost column rank. Click graphic for larger view. Midland, TX MSA has the 4th highest 2017 RPCPI (shown in blue; also shown in blue in the map graphic above). But … that metro experienced a decrease of 12.1 percent over the period 2010-2017 .. and down from a high RPCPI of $115,069 in 2014. The dynamics of the oil industry!

Data Analytics Web Sessions
See these applications live/demoed. Run the applications on your own computer.
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Mapping Census Tracts & Opportunity Zones

.. using the U.S. by census tract shapefile in the CV XE GIS US1 GIS project .. a no fee resource to ProximityOne User Group members (a no cost program, join here) .. view, locate, examine, map, geospatially analyze census tract geodemographics — in context of other geography and subject matter.

Census Tracts in Las Vegas Area

– create this type of map for any area in the U.S.
– use the CV XE GIS software with the default US1 GIS project.
– no cost to ProximityOne User Group members.

Click graphic above for larger view showing zoom-in. Tracts in larger view are labeled with tract code and ACS 2017 total population. See related ACS 2017 census tract interactive table with extended demographics.

The U.S. census tract shapefile has been added to the ProximityOne “US1” GIS project (included with installation). We have made it easy and free to visually locate census tracts of interest and view the boundaries in context of counties and general topology. Install CV XE GIS or run update if already installed. Examining tracts related to the Opportunity Zones? Each tract includes an identifier enabling you to select or find only those tracts.

See step-by step details on using these resources.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
See these applications live/demoed. Run the applications on your own computer.
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

America’s Cities: Examining Characteristics & Trends

… examining city/place demographic-economic characteristics .. of the approximate 29,323 U.S. cities/places, there are just 548 “large cities” .. those with population of 65,000 population or more.  A semi-arbitrary classification, these are cities/places that meet a size criteria for which American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year estimates are developed annually.  This results in the availability of extensive annual demographic-economic data that are much more current than available for all other cities/places (incorporated cities and CDPs).  Click this link to display a list of these cities/places that include 42 CDPs.  They comprise 2017 population of 119,342,501 of the total U.S. population 325,719,178 (36.6%).

Visual Analysis of City/Place Population Dynamics
Use the CV XE GIS software with city/place GIS project to examine characteristics of city/place population. The following view shows patterns of population percent change by city in the Charlotte, NC/SC metro area.

… view developed using the CV XE GIS software.
… click map for larger view and details including city name.

Access updated city/place for all 29,323 U.S. cities/places based on data from American Community Survey 5-year estimates (ACS2017).  Only here, for example, can you compare income characteristics and educational attainment, and much more, among all cities/places or peer groups .. or examine one/a few of interest to you.

Interactive Tables
Use interactive tables to view, rank, compare cities for any selected item; examine peer groups. Four pages/tables:
• General Demographics
• Social Characteristics
• Economic Characteristics
• Housing Characteristics
Related:
• City/Place GeoDemographics Main Section
• Annual City/Place Population Estimates & Trends
• Similar ACS tables: Census Tracts | ZIP Codes | State, Metro & County

Using API Tools to Access Trend Data; Build Data Files
An example: Examine Citizen Voting Age Population; 2014-2017 annually
Using API Tools to access ACS 2017 1 year estimates for all cities/places:
.. item D084 (CVAP: citizen voting age population) in the interactive table
.. click here to view list of places 65,000 population and over and CVAP
.. join us in the Data Analytics Web Sessions to learn more

Data Analytics Web Sessions
See these applications live/demoed. Run the applications on your own computer.
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Employment by Occupation by Census Tract; 5-Year Trends

.. data and tools to examine patterns of employment by occupation by census tract and 5-year change .. the U.S. civilian employed population increased from 142.9 million in 2012 to 155.1 million in 2017, an increase of 12.1 million (8.5%) based on the American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year estimates. See this table to see how the employed population were distributed by occupation in 2012, 2017 and the 5-year change. How did your neighborhoods or market/service areas of interest change over the past 5 years? How will occupational employment patterns by tract/neighborhood change between now and 2023?

Patterns of Percent Employed in Health Occupations by Census Tract
The following graphic shows patterns of the employed population in health occupations as a percent of total civilian employed population ages 16 and over in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro. This view uses the occupational category MBSA40 Healthcare practitioners and technical listed in scroll section below. Tracts with blue or green pattern exceed the national average as shown in national table. Click graphic for larger view, more detail (shows schools layer) and legend color/data intervals. This map illustrates the geographic level of detail available using census tract demographics and the relative ease to gain insights using geospatial data analytics tools. View related graphic showing tract with the largest employment in the “Healthcare practitioners and technical” occupational group among all tracts.

– View developed using CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Drill-down to Census Tract Level
Examining patterns of employment by occupation, for the same scope of subject matter, at the sub-county level can provide more insights. What is the size of the employment for a selected occupation in a neighborhood or market/service area of interest? How has the size of an occupational group by census tract changed over the past five years? How do these patterns rank/compare by tract in a particular state, metro or county? Data on employment by occupational category from the Federal statistical system on a U.S. national scale for counties, cities and census tracts are only available from the American Community Survey (ACS).

Use tools, resources and methods described here to access, integrate and analyze employment by occupation for the U.S. by census tract. Use the interactive table to view, query, rank, compare census tract occupational characteristics, patterns and trends. Data are based on the American Community Survey (ACS) 2017 5-year estimates.

Related sections with census tract interactive tables:
– General Demographics .. Social .. Economic .. Housing 

Current Estimates & Projections
ACS tract/small area estimates lag by four years or more between the current year and reference year. ACS does not produce current year annual estimates but estimates based on a 5-year period. The 2017 ACS estimates are centric to 2015. Use the ProximityOne annual tract estimates and projections 2010 through 2023 for current year (e.g., characteristics as of 2018) estimates and anticipated change 5 years ahead.

Using the Interactive Table
An example of using the interactive table to view, query, rank, compare census tract occupational characteristics, patterns and trends is shown by the graphic presented below. The table shows 6 columns of employment data for all tracts in Harris County, TX. The table is ranked on the ACS 2017 health occupations employment (MBSA40) column. Tract 48-201-312600 had largest ACS 2017 health employment of 1,078 among all tracts in the county. Compare to 2012 patterns. Use settings below table to develop a similar view your geography and occupations of interest.

Occupational Categories
The interactive table includes occupational categories listed below.
Total population
Total Civilian employed population 16 years and over
MBSA00 . Management, business, science, and arts
MBSA10 . . Management, business, and financial
MBSA11 . . . Management
MNSA12 . . . Business and financial operations
MBSA20 . . Computer, engineering, and science
MBSA21 . . . Computer and mathematical
MBSA22 . . . Architecture and engineering
MBSA23 . . . Life, physical, and social science
MBSA30 .. Education, legal, community service, arts, and media
MBSA31 … Community and social service
MBSA32 … Legal
MBSA34 … Education, training, and library
MBSA35 … Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media
MBSA40 .. Healthcare practitioners and technical
MBSA41 … Health diagnosing & treating practitioners & other tech
MBSA42 … Health technologists and technicians
SVC00 . Service
SVC10 . . Healthcare support
SVC20 . . Protective service
SVC21 . . . Fire fighting/prevention & other protective services
SVC22 . . . Law enforcement workers including supervisors
SVC30 . . Food preparation and serving related
SVC40 . . Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance
SVC50 . . Personal care and service
SOF00 . Sales and office
SOF10 . . Sales and related
SOF20 . . Office and administrative support
NRC00 . Natural resources, construction, and maintenance
NRC10 . . Farming, fishing, and forestry
NRC20 . . Construction and extraction
NRC30 . . Installation, maintenance, and repair
PTM00 . Production, transportation, and material moving
PTM10 . . Transportation
PTM20 . . Material moving

Data Analytics Web Sessions
See these applications live/demoed. Run the applications on your own computer.
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Census 2020 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data Updates

.. we are just two years away from the first census block level data from Census 2020.  The initial block level data will be the P.L. 94-171 redistricting data.  But before that, the initial Census 2020 TIGER/Line shapefiles/GIS files, the geography, will become available in November 2020, maybe earlier.  Stakeholders will be able to see how block and tract codes and geography have changed in many areas since 2010.  The prototype P.L. 94-171 data (see final file layout and subject matter items) are expected in the last week of March 2019 and will cover the Providence County, RI area. This post shows illustrative views and related details about the area. The Census 2020 P.L. 94-171 program and plans are reviewed in this Federal Register notice.

The applications/views shown below have been developed using the ProximityOne CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.

Census 2020 Data Access and Use Program
ProximityOne operates a comprehensive Census 2020 Data Access and Use Program providing tools to integrate and analyze these data with other data for redistricting, planning, evaluation, management, general analysis and policy-related applications. Contact us for more information; mention Census 2020 Data Access and Use Program in text section.

Providence, RI Census 2020 P.L. 94-171 Prototype
The Census 2020 P.L. 94-171 prototype covers Providence County, RI, part of the Providence-Warwick, RI-MA MSA (39300) — see Situation& Outlook report. Providence County is shown with cross-hatch pattern in the following graphic.

The next graphic shows a zoom-in to the county with cities/places shown with green fill pattern.

The next graphic shows patterns of economic prosperity for the county based on ACS 2017 median household income by census tract — blue, higher and red, lower.

The next graphic shows Census 2010 blocks for the county. Demographics described in the P.L. 94-171 file described about will be provided at the census block level.

Census block boundaries are primarily defined by roads. Providence County roads are shown in the next view.

The next view shows a zoom-in to the downtown Providence city area. Census blocks are shown with red boundaries and labeled with the 15-character U.S. national scope unique census block code. The pointer is located in census block 440070012001001, or 44-007-001200-1001, expressed as SS-CCC_TTTTTT-BBBB. Access these Census 2010 data (an example) using the Census FactFinder tool via this link. This is the “P1 RACE” table. The Census 2010 population of the block was 598. This census block is one of 13,597 Census 2010 census blocks comprising Providence County.

Rhode Island 116th Congressional Districts 01 and 02 (labeled) split Providence city (cross-hatch pattern) as shown in the graphic below. Pointer shows CD boundary.

Similar to above, the graphic below shows census blocks in context of Providence city (bold green boundary) and CDs 01 and 02.

Next Steps
This section provides a geographic orientation the Census 2020 P.L. 94-171 prototype area. A subsequent post (March 2019) will extend on this post with Census 2020 P.L. 94-171 data and related details. Use the downloadable project and software to examine geodemographics and redistricting operations.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
See these applications live/demoed. Run the applications on your own computer.
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

 

Examining County Gross Domestic Product

.. what is the annual per capita real-valued output of counties of interest? How is this measure trending? Why is this important? This section reviews tools and data to examine county-level Gross Domestic Product (GDP) trends and patterns. The first ever county-level GDP estimates to be developed as a part of the official U.S. national scope GDP estimates were released in December 2018. The county GDP estimates join the county-level personal income by major source, both now part of the Regional Economic Information System (REIS). See more detail about topics reviewed in this post in the related County GDP web section.

Patterns of Real Per Capita GDP by County
The graphic below shows patterns of per capita real GDP, 2015, by county.

– View developed using CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
– create custom views; add your own data, using the GIS project.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by county is a measure of the value of production that occurs within the geographic boundaries of a county. It can be computed as the sum of the value added originating from each of the industries in a county.

Example … use this interactive table to see that 2015 Los Angeles County, CA total real GDP of $656 billion was just slightly larger that than of New York County, NY (Manhattan) at $630 billion. Yet, the total 2015 population of Los Angeles County of 10.1 million is 6 times larger than that of New York County of 1.6 million — see about steps. GDP provides very different size measures, and economic insights, compared to population.

In 2015, real (inflation adjusted) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased in 1,931 counties, decreased in 1,159, and was unchanged in 23. Real GDP ranged from $4.6 million in Loving County, TX to $656.0 billion in Los Angeles County, CA.

This post is focused on U.S. national scope county level estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) annually 2012 through 2015. This marks the first time county level GDP estimates have been developed, a part of the Regional Economic Information System (REIS). Use the interactive table to rank, compare, query counties based on per capita GDP, current GDP, real GDP by type of industry. Use the related GIS project to develop thematic map views such as the one shown below. See more about these data.

Current Annual Estimates & Projections
ProximityOne uses these and related data to develop and analyze annual Situation & Outlook demographic-economic estimates and projections. GDP items included in the table below are included in the “annual 5-year” projections as shown in the schedule of release dates; next release April 18, 2019 and quarterly.

Examining County GDP Using GIS Tools
Use the County REIS GIS project. Make your own maps; select different item to map; modify colors, labels. Zoom in views of selected states shown below. Graphics open in a new page; expand browser window for best view. Patterns: see highlighted layer in legend to left of map; MSAs bold brown boundaries with white shortname label
counties labeled with name and 2015 per capita real GDP
.. Arizona .. Alabama .. California .. Colorado .. Iowa .. Georgia .. Kansas .. Missouri
.. New York .. Nevada .. North Carolina .. South Carolina .. Nevada .. Texas .. Utah .. Vermont

Using the County GDP Interactive Table
The graphic below illustrates use of the interactive table. Tools below the table have been used to view only per capita real GDP for all sectors (total sources) and for county with total population between 50,000 and 60,000. Counties were then ranked on 2015 per capita real GDP (rightmost column).

– click graphic for larger view.

Using County GDP: Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

State of the States: 2018 Population & Components of Change

.. Welcome to 2019 .. how the U.S., states and world population are changing … the Census Bureau estimates the U.S. population is 328,231,337 as of January 1, 2019. This represents an increase of 2,013,241, or 0.62 percent, from New Year’s Day 2018 (326,218,096). The population as of Census Day (April 1) 2010, was 308,745,538 and has grown by 19,485,799, or 6.31 percent.

This section updates January 2020, with corresponding 2019 updates and additional details. Follow (click follow button at upper right) to receive updates on this and geographic, demographic and economic change with drill-down to the street intersection level.

In January 2019, the U.S. is expected to experience one birth every 8 seconds and one death every 11 seconds. Meanwhile, net international migration is expected to add one person to the U.S. population every 29 seconds. The combination of births, deaths and net international migration will increase the U.S. population by one person every 19 seconds … one net international migrant every 34 seconds.

The world population on January 1, 2019 is estimated to be 7,541,221,651. The world has experienced a population increase of 96,777,770, or 1.3 percent, from New Year’s Day 2018 (population 7,444,443,881). During January 2019, 4.8 births and 1.9 deaths are expected worldwide every second.

Patterns of Population Change by State, 2010-2018
The following graphic shows patterns of percent population change from 2010 to 2018. Use the associated GIS project to examine different years or subject matter items. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

How the U.S. Population is Changing
The following graphic shows how the population of the U.S. has changed from 2010 to 2018 and how the population might change 2019 through 2020. Click graphic for larger view; opens in new page. The population is as of July 1 for each year. The components of change (birth, deaths and migration) are for the period July 1 through June 30 for that year.

Population for each year is computed by the population identity equation:
  P[t]=P[t-1] + B[t,t-1] -D[t,t-1] + M[t,t-1]
Viewing the larger image, see how each of the components of change are impacting the total population and population change.
… see more detail about these data for the U.S. and by state at http://proximityone.com/states2018.htm.

More About Population Trends, Patterns and Characteristics
See more about how population dynamics; use the interactive tables in these sections:
  • School Districts — http://proximityone.com/sdtrends.htm
  • Cities — http://proximityone.com/places2017.htm
  • Counties — http://proximityone.com/countytrends2017.htm
  • Metros — http://proximityone.com/metros.htm
  • States — http://proximityone.com/states2018.htm

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.