Category Archives: Trends

Majority-Minority Population by Census Tract

.. based on the Census Bureau’s assessment of Census 2020 results, the most prevalent racial or ethnic group for the United States was the White alone non-Hispanic population at 57.8%. This decreased from 63.7% in 2010. This trend will continue into the future. Over time, interest has grown in majority-minority areas ranging from congressional districts to neighborhoods. Of the 85,190 Census 2020 census tracts, 28,317 tracts were majority-minority based on Census 2020 demographics. Decision-making information using VDA Web GIS .. examining lending institution assessment areas .. see below.
.. of the 1,113 Census 2020 census tracts in Harris County, TX (Houston), 549 tracts are majority-minority tracts based on Census 2020 data. Minority-majority areas are those areas where the resident population is less than 50% non-Hispanic whites. Use tools and methods described in this section to analyze the majority-minority patterns in your census tracts, neigborhoods, areas of interest.
Patterns of Majority-Minority Population in Harris County, TX
The following view shows patterns of Census 2020 percent majority-minority population by Census 2020 census tract in the Houston area.
This view was developed using the VDA Web GIS. You can create a similar for areas of interest. Only a Web browser is needed. In this view, the tracts layer is selected as the “active layer” and a census tract is clicked in the map window. The tract highlights with a blue hatch pattern and a profile is shown in the lower left panel. See that this tract has a Census 2020 total population of 5,380 (TotPop) and White alone, non-Hispanic population (White1NH) of 131. Use the VDA Table/Query feature to examine tracts in a spreadsheet/grid.
Majority-Minority Population by Tract Interactive Table
The following view illustrates use of the VDA Table/Query feature to examine and query the majority-minority population by tract.

This SQL statement is used to select, compute and show the data in a tabular form by tract.
select uid, geoid, totpop, white1nh, 100*(totpop-white1nh)/totpop where totpop>0 and geoid like ‘48201%’
The percent majority-minority is computed “on the fly”.
The table is ranked by on this sort instruction:
100*(totpop-white1nh)/totpop desc
The resulting table shows tracts as rows with the highest percent majort-minority at the top. A larger population tract is selected by clicking on it in the grid. The tract 48-201-331700 is selected in the table; that tract is zoomed-to in the map, and the demographics are shown in the profile (TotPop 4,045, White1NH 29).
Examining Majority-Minority Tract Patterns in Context of Lending/Mortgages
Majority-minority census tracts relates to banks/lenders and the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA). The following graphic developed using VDA Web GIS, shows locations of a California bank in context of patterns of percent majority-minority tracts. It is easy to see how bank locations relate to patterns of majority-minority tracts. Lenders and stakeholders are enabled to analyze patterns and gain insights. See more about adding/using the national FDIC bank locations data to VDA Web GIS to perform more in-depth analysis.

Using VDA GeoSelect Tool to Examine Assessment/Service Areas
The following graphic illustrates use of the VDA GeoSelect tool to select tracts around a bank location to evaluate demographic characteristics of an area .. an assessment area or service area. As tracts are selected they are shown with a hatch pattern. The Profile panel, lower left, is dynamically updated to show aggregated demographics for the set of tracts selected including total population and race/origin details.

Using the Visual Data Analytics (VDA) Web GIS
Learn more about VDA.
Sign-in to to VDA using browser, nothing to install.
Select the “Base — Majority-Minority Tracts” GIS Project.
The opening view shows majority-minority tract patterns, similar to the above graphic/view.

Learn more — Join me in the Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Accessing & Using GeoDemographics Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Warren Glimpse/ProximityOne/Alexandria, VA USA and Takashi Hamilton/Tsukasa/Osaka, Japan are co-developers of VDA. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Arizona’s Shifting Demographics

.. part of a state-by-state series .. these periodic posts examine how and why the state and its counties changed bwteen 2010 and 2020. Later posts will provide more of a drill-down look at change. Click the Follow link at right to receive new and updated information.

Census 2020 Arizona Demographics
The Arizona July 1, 2020 Census model-based population estimate of 7,421,401 compares to the Census 2020 population count of 7,151,502 people. The difference of -269,899 between the 2020 estimate and the 2020 count can be explained by several factors. First, the estimate is for a point in time that is three months later that the Census. There will be a tendency of the Census Bureau to adjust the Joly 1, 2020 population estimate to conform to the Census 2020 value. The July 1, 2020 estimate will likely be adjusted to reflect this change when the July 1, 2021 estimates are released April/May of 2022.

The 2020 population estimate is determined using a component method. The 2020 population estimate is the sum of the 2019 population estimate (7,291,843 for Arizona) and each of the following for the period July 1, 2019 through June 30, 2020 …
plus births (AZ 81,451)
less deaths (AZ 66,385)
plus international migration (AZ 9,272)
plus domestic migration (AZ 105,435)
plus an estimation residual (AZ -214)

Any one or a combination of these 6 estimate based values could be wrong, or the Census 2020 value could be wrong. It is likely a combination of all of these factors.

The remainder of this section is based on Census Bureau model-based estimates, released April 26, 2021. See more about these data for all U.S. counties in the Demographics 2060 section where Arizona demographic projections can be examined.

Visualizing Arizona Demographic Change
The following graphic illustrates how Arizona county demographics have changed from 2010 to 2020. The labels show the actual percent change; the color patterns, as shown in the legend, provide a visual thematic pattern view.

Examining the How and Why of Demographic Change
The following table shows a row for the state and each county, providing more detail as to the where, what/how much, how and why demographic change has occurred from 2010 to 2020.


Click graphic for larger view.

Looking Ahead
More geographically detailed data (counties for example) based Census 2020 (August 2021) will reveal much starker percentage differences between the 2020 estimates versus Census results. The ProximityOne annual estimates and projections to 2060 are developed using two basic series (and variation among those (low, base, high): Census 2020 based series and 2020 estimates series. See http://proximityone.com/demographics2060 for details.

Learn more — Join me in the Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Accessing & Using GeoDemographics Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Census 2020 – First Results

.. the first results of Census 2020, the apportionment data, were released on April 26, 2021.  Based on the decennial census, the United States total resident population increased from 308,745,538 (2010) to 331,449,281 (2020), a change of 22,703,743 (7.3%). For now, these data should be trusted and assumed accurate.  The apportionment data provide only total population counts at the state level.  More will be revealed about the accuracy of these data when the redistricting data are released in August 2021.

Apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives
Congressional apportionment is the process of dividing the 435 members, or seats, in the House of Representatives among the 50 states based on the population data from the decennial census. See more about congressional districts and demographic-economic characteristics. See this related web section for detailed information on apportionment. Use the interactive table to view/analyze the Census 2010 and Census 2020 apportionment data. The following view shows patterns of congressional seats based on the decennial census. Labels show the number of seats based on the 2020 Census. Color patterns show the change in seats, 2010 to 2020.

Census 2020: the Process & Challenges
Counting the total population and selected population attributes in a pandemic is not only challenging but not possible.  During 2020, as the data were collected, it seemed good news that more than two-thirds of the potential respondents had completed the questionnaire.  But then the questions set in.  Bureau public announcements frequently made reference to the number or housing units and the number of households (occupied housing units) “accounted for” reaching 90 percent and progressively more.  By observation, using administrative record data, and other methods, housing units can be much more easily counted than the population and population attributes.  Likewise, determining the number households is  easier than determining the population count and characteristics.

The fact that the state population counts were unexpectedly different from the Bureau’s model based estimates is troubling.  We seek more assurance that the count of  population and population characteristics — by location — are as represented by the apportionment data.

Census Bureau 2020 Model-Based Estimates
New Census Bureau sourced U.S. by county model-based population estimates by age/gender/race-origin as of July 1, 2020 will be released by the Bureau in May 2021.  These estimates are independent of Census 2020 and make use of methods used annually throughout the 2010-2020 period.  An upcoming blog will report on ProximityOne’s analysis of these estimates in comparison with the Census 2020 data.

ProximityOne Estimates & Projections to 2060
ProximityOne annual demographic estimates and projections 2010-2060 by county will begin a new update cycle in May 2021.  The schedule is shown here.  

Starting with the May updates, two base projection series will be developed and progressively updated: one controlled to the Census 2020 data and one based on continued use of 2020 model-based estimates. As more information is released from Census 2020. Follow this blog for more information on evolving developments.

Learn more — Join me in the Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Accessing & Using GeoDemographics Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

U.S. Demographic-Economic Insights

The results of the Census 2020 will not provide us with a good picture of the United States demographic-economic situation, mainly as a result of limited scope subject matter. While the Census 2020 data are important due to their more accurate and up-to-date small area demographics, and data tabulated by census block, only a small number of demographic subject matter items are available from Census 2020. The scope of subject matter is limited by items tabulated based on the questionnaire.

In comparison, the annual American Community Survey (ACS) data provide a much broader range of subject matter. Based largely on the 2019 ACS (the most up-to-date with data for small area geography .. released in December 2020), ProximityOne has developed tools/data to develop demographic-economic insights for the most widely used types of geography.

Demographic-Economic Insights Role & Scope
ACS and related data and ProximityOne tools have been used to develop the U.S. demographic-economic insights report, reviewed here, illustrating the scope and organization of the data and how it can be used. You can develop similar comparative analysis reports for your areas of interest. See more about the role and scope of the Demographic-Economic Insights.

U.S. National Scope Demographic-Economic Insights
View the U.S. National Scope Demographic-Economic Insights report develop using the ProximityOne Insights tool. This report is organized into two subject matter description columns, four statistical data columns and four subject matter groups. The first two statistical data columns present data based on the ACS 2019 1-year estimates. The second set of statistical data columns show data based on the 2019 ACS 5-year estimates (values centric to mid 2017). This report is a useful resource to compare/contrast data values based on the 1-year estimates side-by-side with the 5-year values. The four subject matter groups are reviewed below.

General Demographics
Graphic shows partial list of “D” items .. click graphic for larger view.
.. view this section in the U.S. Insights report.

Social Characteristics
Graphic shows partial list of “S” items .. click graphic for larger view.
.. view this section in the U.S. Insights report.

Economic Characteristics
Graphic shows partial list of “E” items .. click graphic for larger view.
.. view this section in the U.S. Insights report.

Housing Characteristics
Graphic shows partial list of “H” items .. click graphic for larger view.
.. view this section in the U.S. Insights report.

Creating Insights and Talking Points
The four subject matter groups provide a dense array of tabular statistical data that can be overwhelming to consume. Yet, not every topic can be distilled to just a few numbers. The scope of key data depends on the objective presentation, audience and desired talking points.

For example, a briefing or synopsis might include only 10-15 subject matter items such as … this report tells us that in 2019 (based on 2019 1-year estimates), the total resident population was estimated to be 328,239,523. The median age was 38.5 years. The percent high school graduates was 88.6%. The number of housing units was 139,686,209. The percent owner occupied housing units was 64.1%. These measures are roughly the same today, at the end of 2020, even with the pandemic impact. Some other measures in the report as not as reflective “as of today”.

While data shown here do not fully summarize the state of the Nation, there provide many insights. The same can said for any of the geographic areas covered. To obtain a better picture of the state of the Nation, we need supplementary subject matter, more up-to-date data and trending data that give clues into what’s happening.

Learn more — Join me in the Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Housing Value Appreciation

.. U.S. housing prices rose nationwide in August, up 1.5% from the previous month, based on the FHFA Housing Price Index (HPI). Housing prices rose 8.0% from August 2019 to August 2020.

If you purchased a housing unit in 2019Q2 at $260,200 (the ACS 2019 median housing value), the value of the unit in 2020Q2 would be $271,000, an increase of 4.2%. A good deal in this era of low interest rates.

U.S. housing prices posted a strong increase in August .. the 1.5% increase is the largest one-month price increase observed since the start of the HPI measurement in 1991. This large month-over-month gain contributes to an already strong increase in prices over the summer. These price gains can be attributed to the historically low interest rates, rebounding housing demand and continued supply constraints.

The HPI has various limitations as a measure to assess the housing market. One important limitation is that it a measure in isolation; other related demographic-economic measures are not included. This is unlike the American Community Survey (ACS) estimates of the median housing value ($MHV), used as an annual, year-over-year measure of housing value appreciation.

Median Housing Value
The U.S. ACS 1-year estimate of median housing value ($MHV) increased from $229,700 in 2018 to $240,500 in 2019. The ACS 2020 estimate, which will be impacted by the pandemic, will not be available until September 2021. The ProximityOne 2020 estimate of $MHV is $270,500.

Click this API link to view a CSV-like file showing the 2019 median household income and median housing value by state. Join me in a Data Analytics Web Session (see below) to integrate these data into a map view like shown below. Add other data.

Patterns of Median Housing Value by State

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS
– click graphic for larger view

An advantage of using the ACS or ACS-like $MHV data is that this measure is synchronized with other related measures, like total population, total housing units, housing units by tenure and age built and so on. Though a popular measure to assess geographically comparable housing values, the $MHV has many limitations. A key limitation is that few survey responders really know the value of their home. Other limitations have to do with the definition itself and how the data are collected/developed. ACS $MHV measures value of only occupied housing units and excludes houses on 10 or more acres and housing units in multi-unit structures. See more. While there are other Federal sources of $MHV, it remains that the usabilty aspects of the ACS or ACS-like measures are second to none.

Learn more — Join me in the Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

America’s Cities: Situation & Outlook

.. the path forward .. planning for the future .. in April 2019, the employment in Houston, TX was 1,111,283 with an unemployment rate of 3.2%. In April 2020, the employment in Houston, TX was 927,105 with an unemployment rate of 14.9%. What will the 2020 annual look like? 2021? There are many paths to get to 2021 and beyond. What policy and action measures might work best? What about your cities of interest? See the related Web section for more details.

Houston characteristics: Demographic .. Social .. Economic .. Housing
Get for any city/area .. e-mail your request

The pandemic impacts on America’s cities in different ways .. some experiencing little change, others with massive change. When, where and how will these disparate patterns change in cities and communities of interest? How might this change impact you and your community? A comprehensive plan needs to be developed and set in motion to achieve best outcomes. This section provides access to tools and data that stakeholders can use to examine America’s cities demographic-economic characteristics and trends. Examine cities of interest. Use ProximityOne data, tools, methods and advisory services to achieve improved results.

Of the nation’s 327.2 million people, an estimated 206.0 million (62.9%) live within an incorporated place. Of approximately 19,500 incorporated places, about 76 percent had fewer than 5,000 people and nearly 50 percent had fewer than 1,000 people. Examine characteristics of individual city population trends and compare cities in states, regions and peer groups using the interactive table below.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity; Cities 50,000 Population or More
The following view shows cities with 2019 population of 50,000 or more as markers .. mainly principal cities of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Nationally, there are 69 cities with 2019 population of 5,000 or more (determine using interactive table below). The marker color shows the median household income; see inset legend. Click graphic for larger view; expand window to full screen.

– View developed using the ProximityOne CV XE GIS software.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity; Cities 5,000 Population or More
– zoom-in to Dallas Metro
The following view shows cities with 2019 population of 5,000 or more as polygons/city boundary-area in the Dallas metro area. There are 201 cities that intersect with the Dallas metro (code 19100); 96 of these cities have a population greater than 5,000 (determine using interactive table below). The color patterns show the median household income range; see inset legend. Click graphic for larger view; expand window to full screen.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity by Neighborhood & Adjacent Areas
The following view shows patterns of median household income by block group (sub-neighborhoods) within city (bold black boundary) in the Dallas County, TX area. In examining the situation & outlook for a city it is important to examine characteristics of drill-down geography and adjacent cities/areas. Inset legend shows median household income color intervals. Click graphic for larger view; expand window to full screen. In the larger view, a cross-hatch pattern is applied to Dallas city. It is easier to see how Dallas city is comprised of a core area as well as outlying areas and extends into adjacent counties.

Interactive Analysis of Cities: Demographic-Economic Patterns & Trends
Use the interactive table to view, rank, compare cities based on demographic-economic trends and characteristics. The following static graphics provide two examples.

 

Largest 15 U.S. Cities Ranked on 2019 Population

California Cities Ranked on Educational Attainment

Learn more — Join me in the Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

How & Why County Demographics are Changing

.. the pandemic impact on population change remains in flux. For many counties it will impact each component of population change: births, deaths and migration. The magnitude and duration of the impact on each component will vary by county and become more measurable in the months ahead. The “How & Why County Demographics are Changing” will be updated later in 2020.

Here we look at population and components of change by county for the period 2010 to 2019 .. tools and data to examine how the U.S. by county population is changing. These latest 2019 estimates were released this spring. See more in the related web section.

Top 25 Counties with Largest Population Change 2010-2019
Create a table similar to the one shown below using the interactive table. Sort on selected criteria and within a selected state or metro.

Patterns of Population Change by County, 2010-2019
The following graphic shows how counties have gained population (blue and green) and lost population (orange and red) during the period 2010 to 2019. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Examining Population Components of Change
Population change can be examined in terms of components of change. There are three components of change: births, deaths, and migration. The change in the population from births and deaths is often combined and referred to as natural increase or natural change. Populations grow or shrink depending on if they gain people faster than they lose them. Examining a county’s unique combination of natural change and migration provides insights into why its population is changing and how quickly the change is occurring. The above graphic shows these relationships.

County Population & Components of Change 2010-2019 – Interactive Table
View/analyze county population and components of change characteristics and trends in a tabular manner using the interactive table. The following static graphic shows net migration 2010-2019 by year for Houston, TX metro component counties. Rows have been ranked in descending order based on 2010 population. It is easy to see how the net migration in Harris County has been decreasing annually since 2015.

Try it yourself. Use the interactive table to examine counties/areas of interest.

Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Analyzing Patterns of COVID-19

.. as COVID-19 impacts our demographics, economy and way of life, we look for answers about where we are and what lies ahead.  Here we review data on COVID-19 incidence and tools to analyze those data. In the coming days, weeks, we plan to augment these tools and data. See more below.  See related Web section for more detail.

Use new resources to examine/analyze patterns of COVID-19 incidence in context of related demographic-economic characteristics. Resources include the narrative/interpretative portion, interactive table and GIS tools and project/files. Data and tools are updated daily. There is no fee to use any of these resources.

COVID-19 Incidence by County in the Atlanta Metro Area
The following graphic shows patterns of COVID-19 incidence (number of cases per 1,000 population) by county. See color patterns in the inset legend. This view shows counties labeled with name and number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Use the GIS project described below to create variations of this view and develop similar views for any metro.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

The GIS resources and interactive table below makes use of the COVID-19 confirmed cases data updated daily by the New York Times. See more about the New York Times U.S. tracking page.

COVID-19 Incidence — U.S. by County
Similar to the above view, the following graphic shows patterns of COVID-19 incidence (number of cases per 1,000 population) by county for the U.S. See color patterns in the inset legend. This view shows counties labeled with name and number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Use the GIS project described below to create variations of this view and develop similar views for any metro. Click graphic for larger, more detailed view. Expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Using GIS Tools & Resources
Use the Geographic Information System (GIS) CV XE GIS software and GIS project to view maps and geospatially analyze patterns COVID-19 cases in context of related demographic-economic data. The GIS project automatically opens with the following view:

.. see details about using the mapping/GIS resources.
.. create map views for your areas of interest.

COVID-19 Confirmed Cases by County Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to view, rank, query compare patterns of COVID-19 cases. See related demographic-economic interactive tables.

The following static graphic illustrates use of the table to view daily patterns of COVID-19 cases in Cobb County, GA.

Use the interactive table to examine counties of interest.

Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Climate Change & the Demographic-Economic Outlook

.. it is startling that many do not accept the reality that climate change is upon us. Climate change is, right now, affecting the demographic-economic outlook … how things will change in the next fifty years and how this change might impact each of us. A challenge is to determine how to best integrate the right set of data, variables, into our cause and effect predictive models. By doing so, we improve the quality and accuracy of projections. We can better examine what-if scenarios. Business decision-making and policy-making implications are enormous.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has recently taken the position that climate change has become a defining factor in companies’ long-term prospects.

Climate Risk Is Investment Risk
Investment strategies mean exiting/avoiding some investments that present a high sustainability-related risk, such as coal producers and new/expanded investment products that screen fossil fuels. Many others.

The impact of these types of investment risks are already appearing. While the stock market continues an unprecedented rally, energy sector companies are not performing as well. This impacts the metros/areas where they operate affecting the economic base and impacting the population/housing growth and composition.

Climate Risk Affects Personal/Family Decision-Making
As Larry Fink/Blackrock notes, what will happen to the 30-year mortgage – a key building block of finance – if lenders can’t estimate the impact of climate risk over such a long timeline? What if there is no viable market for flood or fire insurance in impacted areas? Happening now. What happens to inflation, and in turn interest rates, if the cost of food climbs from drought and flooding? Risks to human health and and migration due to climate change are already being experienced.

The Situation & Outlook — Improving Model Specification
This is our challenge — modeling economic change where emerging markets see their productivity impacted due to extreme heat and other climate impacts .. modeling migration of people and businesses being impacted by climate change .. modeling the housing infrastructure being implemented by climate change .. determining how and where climate change might impact personal income and GDP by county. In many cases, because of the way and what data are collected, it is difficult to sort out what part of migration, business change and other key measures are due in what part to climate change.

Quantification of climate change, and new model-based cause and effect specifications, will be reflected in the 2020 ProximityOne Situation & Outlook demographic-economic projections to 2060. For the first time, and on a continuing basis, we and our clients will be able to examine the quantified impact of climate change down to the county level of geography. This is now a topic included in the weekly Situation & Outlook web sessions.

Situation & Outlook Weekly Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook web session to discuss more details about demographic-economic estimates and projections.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

U.S. & World Population, 2020

.. changing demographics .. the U.S. population stands 330,222,422 on January 1, 2020 .. an increase of 1,991,085, 0.61%, from a year ago. The April 1, 2010 Census population was 308,758,105.


 
In January 2020, the United States experiences one birth every eight seconds and one death every 11 seconds.

.. the net international migration adds one person to the U.S. population every 34 seconds. The combination of births, deaths and net international migration will increase the U.S. population by one person every 19 seconds.

The projected world population on January 1, 2020, is 7,621,018,958, an increase of 77,684,873, or 1.03%, from a year earlier. During January 2020, 4.3 births and 1.9 deaths are expected worldwide every second.

Kickoff of Census-Sourced Vintage 2019 Population Estimates Program
Starting in December of each year, the Census Bureau develops official population estimates for July of that year. In 2020, the Bureau will progressively release population estimates with greater subject matter detail for more detailed subnational geography. These model-based estimates will be completed in June 2020 for incorporated places.

The July 2019 estimates for the U.S. and states were just released in December 2019. These estimates reflect that the natural Increase dropped below 1 million for the first time in decades due to fewer births and more deaths.

The July 1, 2019, U.S. population estimate is 328,239,523, growing by 0.5% between 2018 and 2019, or 1,552,022 people. Annual growth peaked at 0.73% this decade in the period between 2014 and 2015. The growth between 2018 and 2019 is a continuation of a multiyear slowdown since that period. More detail on U.S. and state trends will be reviewed in a subsequent post.

Population Projections & Subnational Demographics
ProximityOne uses these Census-sourced historical annal data to develop current estimates and projections to 2060. See about projections and more geographic detail in the Demographics 2060 section.

Demographic-Economic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.