Tag Archives: Census 2020

The Value of Demographic Insights

.. its a global thing, a community thing, a business thing, a personal thing … demographics tell us about how, when, where we have changed and how we might change in the future .. and how that change might impact you .. us.

How & Why are County Demographics Changing?
The following graphic shows how counties have gained population (blue and green) and lost population (orange and red) during the period 2010 to 2018. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view. What are the insights from these data, this view? How are the insights developed? Their application and use creates the value. .
– developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS.

Access these data for areas of interest:
– U.S. by state interactive table.
– U.S. by metro interactive table.
– U.S. by county interactive table.
– U.S. by city interactive table.
– U.S. by census tract interactive table.

An example of the “tip of the iceberg,” the above model-based demographic data have been developed for use in developing the more detailed American Community Survey annual demographic data — annual updates on demographics down to the block group level of geography. ~217,000 areas covering the U.S. wall-to-wall.

Valuation of Demographic Insights
Having the required demographic data is needed before value can be assigned to their use. It’s really not possible to value demographic data or insights on a financial basis alone. But here are some considerations. One way to assign a value to demographic data is on the cost basis. The above data have been developed by the Census Bureau. But they are not free to develop — the costs for the Federal programs to produce them and the cost for others providing access to the data and using them.

These demographic data enable an unestimable number of studies that result in an unestimable set of decisions in the private and public sector. Many evolve into useful insights, but certainly not all.

Census 2020 is will cost in excess of $16 billion. That’s just to get the data out there. The value of these demographic data have to be in the many trillions or much more. Plus, these demographics enable things that can be done that cannot be done with any other set of demographic data. This “uniqueness thread” runs through many demographic data programs. What is the value of being able to apportion Congress, state legislatures and thousands of other governmental bodies?

How to assign value to one decision based substantially on geodemographics?

What about the byproducts? Census 2020 relies heavily on the Census produced (with the indispensable involvement of regional governments) TIGER/Line geographic database. In essence, we have a demographic data program producing a geographic database. It can be argued that the public use TIGER database is the most valuable past of the decennial census. TIGER provides the digital map database undergirding all widely used mapservers such as Google maps and Bing. It provides the unique and near comprehensive set of standardized geographic data going down to the intersection-to-intersection street segment. It enables a near infinite set of Geographic Information System (GIS) applications.

The above addresses mainly matters of demographic data developed on a national scale. All businesses deal in their own demographics daily. This set of demographic data minimally includes staff and related consultants, etc. plus prospects and clients/customers. Many businesses do not take advantage of the potential benefits of having these data. They can often do more to use their own data, and data of competitors and about the market, to develop improved plans to meet their goals.

Demographic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

  

Census 2020 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data Updates

.. we are just two years away from the first census block level data from Census 2020.  The initial block level data will be the P.L. 94-171 redistricting data.  But before that, the initial Census 2020 TIGER/Line shapefiles/GIS files, the geography, will become available in November 2020, maybe earlier.  Stakeholders will be able to see how block and tract codes and geography have changed in many areas since 2010.  The prototype P.L. 94-171 data (see final file layout and subject matter items) are expected in the last week of March 2019 and will cover the Providence County, RI area. This post shows illustrative views and related details about the area. The Census 2020 P.L. 94-171 program and plans are reviewed in this Federal Register notice.

The applications/views shown below have been developed using the ProximityOne CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.

Census 2020 Data Access and Use Program
ProximityOne operates a comprehensive Census 2020 Data Access and Use Program providing tools to integrate and analyze these data with other data for redistricting, planning, evaluation, management, general analysis and policy-related applications. Contact us for more information; mention Census 2020 Data Access and Use Program in text section.

Providence, RI Census 2020 P.L. 94-171 Prototype
The Census 2020 P.L. 94-171 prototype covers Providence County, RI, part of the Providence-Warwick, RI-MA MSA (39300) — see Situation& Outlook report. Providence County is shown with cross-hatch pattern in the following graphic.

The next graphic shows a zoom-in to the county with cities/places shown with green fill pattern.

The next graphic shows patterns of economic prosperity for the county based on ACS 2017 median household income by census tract — blue, higher and red, lower.

The next graphic shows Census 2010 blocks for the county. Demographics described in the P.L. 94-171 file described about will be provided at the census block level.

Census block boundaries are primarily defined by roads. Providence County roads are shown in the next view.

The next view shows a zoom-in to the downtown Providence city area. Census blocks are shown with red boundaries and labeled with the 15-character U.S. national scope unique census block code. The pointer is located in census block 440070012001001, or 44-007-001200-1001, expressed as SS-CCC_TTTTTT-BBBB. Access these Census 2010 data (an example) using the Census FactFinder tool via this link. This is the “P1 RACE” table. The Census 2010 population of the block was 598. This census block is one of 13,597 Census 2010 census blocks comprising Providence County.

Rhode Island 116th Congressional Districts 01 and 02 (labeled) split Providence city (cross-hatch pattern) as shown in the graphic below. Pointer shows CD boundary.

Similar to above, the graphic below shows census blocks in context of Providence city (bold green boundary) and CDs 01 and 02.

Next Steps
This section provides a geographic orientation the Census 2020 P.L. 94-171 prototype area. A subsequent post (March 2019) will extend on this post with Census 2020 P.L. 94-171 data and related details. Use the downloadable project and software to examine geodemographics and redistricting operations.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
See these applications live/demoed. Run the applications on your own computer.
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

 

Redistricting & Census 2020

.. most states will not have new redistricting plans until after Census 2020. Redistricting is the process of developing a redistricting plan for 2 or more areas (districts) disjoint and contiguous that are contained within the collective area of all districts based on some criteria. Redistricting is perhaps most familiar with regard to congressional districts and state legislative districts based on a set of demographic characteristics … but may apply to many other types of geographies. This post briefly reviews the Census 2020 & Redistricting Program.

Redrawing the Pennsylvania 115th Congressional Districts
The following views show Pennsylvania 115th Congressional Districts in their gerrymandered configuration (old) and the redrawn configuration (February 2018, new). Counties shown with light gray boundary. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser window for best quality view.
Pennsylvania 115th CDs — Old

– View developed using CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Pennsylvania 115th CDs — New, redrawn February 2018

– View developed using CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Census 2020 & Redistricting Program
The ProximityOne Census 2020 & Redistricting Program enables participants to engage now in preparation for redistricting based on Census 2020. Use resources and processes provided by ProximityOne and the Congressional Districts/State Legislative Districts Group (CDSLD) .. participate in hands-on redistricting for your areas of interest. We start now using Census 2010 redistricting data, current congressional districts and state legislative districts, and related data/tools. Progressively, we move toward accessing the live Census 2020 redistricting data (March 2021). There is no cost to participate. See more about the Census 2020 & Redistricting Program at http://proximityone.com/cen2020_redistricting.htm. Join the CDSLD Group via this form to receive updates on the program and begin participation.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Data Analytics Web Session, every Tuesday, where we review access to and use of data, tools and methods relating to the Census 2020 redistricting Program. We review current topical issues and data — and how you can access/use tools/data to meet your needs/interests.

About the Author
Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Federal Statistical System Updates January 2018

.. sharing updates on developments about and within the Federal Statistical System (http://proximityone.com/fss.htm). Today I attended a briefing by Nancy Potok, U.S. Chief Statistician (part of OMB OIRA) at the American Statistical Association offices. The session was coordinated by the Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics (COPAFS).

Several topics were discussed, including:

1. Will the Federal government shutdown on January 19, 2018, due to a budget impasse? As of now, there seems to be a 50-50 consensus likelihood.

2. In the spring of 2018, there might be a far-reaching Federal government reorganization plan released by OMB. While there are no details on this, it may well be that certain Federal statistical agencies will be reorganized. This follows more than a year of processing recommendations suggested by individual agencies. Right now, it is not clear if this will be focused on Federal statistical and information-related operations or something broader.

3. It is expected that the 2018 Federal budget, thus including the 13 primary Federal statistical agencies, will be released in early February. Much of the 2019 Federal budget is also completed, though many important details remain.

4. The widely publicized possible addition of a citizenship question to 2020 census questionnaire was discussed. OMB approves the addition or deletion of all questions on Federal government information collection forms. See USATODAY editorial comments today, consistent with my opinion. The merit to the argument to add the citizenship question, if there is one, is that while block group level tabulations of citizenship status from the American Community Survey are available and updated annually, these are subject to sampling error and other errors of estimation, they are not tabulated at the census block level, they are estimates for respondents over a five year period, and they will lag the 2020 census data (first release March 31, 2021) with ACS 2018 estimates (centric to mid-2016) released in December 2020. Key facts are that 1) at there is no Federal government agency requirement for citizenship by block data, 2) a citizenship question definitely imperil the quality of the Census 2020 results, 3) block group level data are sufficient for any reasonable need, 4) the cost of adding the question would be huge in an already underfunded census.

Next Federal Statistical System Updates
The next planned Federal Statistical System update will be in March followed by an update in April. We might move to a recurring monthly update.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Census 2020 LUCA Program and You

.. what would be the financial impact of a one-percent understatement in the Census 2020 population count? Many political districts are drawn based upon population change and shifts, and allocations of government funding and services are made based upon official population data. Consider this one specific example. For each one-percent of the Atlanta MSA population missed in Census 2020, potentially due to less than fully accurate address and location data, the financial impact could be on the order of $414 million per year. How and why? At margin, each person not counted in the decennial census results in a per capita disposable income loss for the area in the magnitude of $5,494 in 2000, and $6,770 per person in 2020. 61,100 people undercounted times $6,770 yields $414 million.

This section is about the Censue 2020 Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA) program and how it might impact the reduction in undercount .. and make the data more accurate for wide-ranging needs and uses. Read on for details about the LUCA program.

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA
The Atlanta metro shown with black bold boundary. More about this metro.

– View developed with CV XE GIS software.
– Click graphic to view patterns of neighborhood economic prosperity.

Financial Impact Details … the 2015 per capita current transfer payments (PCTP) in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta MSA were $6,132, up from $5,494 in 2010. The PCTP figure in 2020 may be $6,770. For each one-percent of the Atlanta MSA population (61,100 people) missed in Census 2020, potentially due to less than fully accurate address and location data, the financial impact could be in the order of $414 million (61,100 x $6,770) per year as of Census 2020.  $414 million per year based on the 2020 population and PCTP.

Financial Impact in Your Areas of Interest
Estimate the financial impact in your areas of interest. Get the 2010 and 2015 population and PCTP data from the REIS Interactive Table for any county or state.  Compute the 2020 population and PCTP values, potential undercount to determine the financial impact on an area of interest

Census 2020 LUCA Overview
The Census 2020 LUCA program is an initiative of the Census Bureau, partnering with thousands of state and local governments across the U.S. At the core of this program, Census provides address list data to communities; those communities compare those data with their own data and provide address/geographic updates back to the Census Bureau.  The updated address and geographic data are integrated into the TIGER/Line files  — geographic backbone for collecting and tabulating the Census results. This important MAF/TIGER address-plus update program will help insure improved accuracy for Census 2020. LUCA is a geographic data development program engaging local communities across the U.S.

ProximityOne works with local areas to improve the TIGER/Line files leading up to Census 2020. Using the CV XE GIS software and specialized expertise, we helped hundreds of governmental units, including all of the State of Georgia, improve the coverage and content of the TIGER/Line files and thus the accuracy and completeness of Census 2010.

The Census 2020 LUCA program is starting now in 2016.  See the full schedule and related details in the LUCA Web section.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.