Monthly Archives: January 2020

Neighborhood Median Family Income: Measuring Economic Well-Being

.. Median Family Income ($MFI) and Median Household Income ($MHI) are two measures of economic well-being. Based on the 2018 American Community Survey 1-year (ACS) data, the U.S. 2018 $MFI was estimated to be $76,401 while the $MHI was estimated to be $61,937 .. both in 2018/current dollars. Create insights into patterns of well-being by neighborhood using geospatial analysis. $MFI patterns are illustrated by the following thematic pattern map.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity by Neighborhood/Census Tract
The following view shows patterns of $MFI by census tract for the inner beltway area of Houston/Harris County, TX. Income interval color patterns are shown in the inset legend. Tracts are labeled with $MFI. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser window for best quality view. Larger view shows tracts labeled with tract code. It is easy to see how west Houston and east Houston areas differ.

– view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.
– these $MFI data are based on the 2018 ACS 5-year estimates.

This section focuses on $MFI but could just as well focus on $MHI and yet other related income measures. $MFI will almost always be greater that $MHI, generally by a large margin. See the U.S. 2018 $MFI and $MHI in context of related demographic-economic measure here. See more about the distinctions/definitions of families and and households below.

The ACS data are a unique source of income and related data at the neighborhood or sub-county level. View more about accessing and using the 2018 ACS 5-year estimates.

Family Definition
A family is a group of two people or more (one of whom is the householder) related by birth, marriage, or adoption and residing together; all such people (including related subfamily members) are considered as members of one family. The number of families is equal to the number of family households. However, the count of family members differs from the count of family household members because family household members include any non-relatives living in the household.

Related … an unmarried partner, also known as a domestic partner, is specifically defined as a person who shares a close personal relationship with the reference person. … Same-sex unmarried-partner families or households – reference person and unmarried partner are both male or female.

Household Definition
A household consists of all the people who occupy a housing unit. A house, an apartment or other group of rooms, or a single room, is regarded as a housing unit when it is occupied or intended for occupancy as separate living quarters; that is, when the occupants do not live with any other persons in the structure and there is direct access from the outside or through a common hall.

A household includes the related family members and all the unrelated people, if any, such as lodgers, foster children, wards, or employees who share the housing unit. A person living alone in a housing unit, or a group of unrelated people sharing a housing unit such as partners or roomers, is also counted as a household. The count of households excludes group quarters. There are two major categories of households, “family” and “nonfamily”.

Situation & Outlook Weekly Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook web session to discuss more details about demographic-economic estimates and projections.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Climate Change & the Demographic-Economic Outlook

.. it is startling that many do not accept the reality that climate change is upon us. Climate change is, right now, affecting the demographic-economic outlook … how things will change in the next fifty years and how this change might impact each of us. A challenge is to determine how to best integrate the right set of data, variables, into our cause and effect predictive models. By doing so, we improve the quality and accuracy of projections. We can better examine what-if scenarios. Business decision-making and policy-making implications are enormous.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has recently taken the position that climate change has become a defining factor in companies’ long-term prospects.

Climate Risk Is Investment Risk
Investment strategies mean exiting/avoiding some investments that present a high sustainability-related risk, such as coal producers and new/expanded investment products that screen fossil fuels. Many others.

The impact of these types of investment risks are already appearing. While the stock market continues an unprecedented rally, energy sector companies are not performing as well. This impacts the metros/areas where they operate affecting the economic base and impacting the population/housing growth and composition.

Climate Risk Affects Personal/Family Decision-Making
As Larry Fink/Blackrock notes, what will happen to the 30-year mortgage – a key building block of finance – if lenders can’t estimate the impact of climate risk over such a long timeline? What if there is no viable market for flood or fire insurance in impacted areas? Happening now. What happens to inflation, and in turn interest rates, if the cost of food climbs from drought and flooding? Risks to human health and and migration due to climate change are already being experienced.

The Situation & Outlook — Improving Model Specification
This is our challenge — modeling economic change where emerging markets see their productivity impacted due to extreme heat and other climate impacts .. modeling migration of people and businesses being impacted by climate change .. modeling the housing infrastructure being implemented by climate change .. determining how and where climate change might impact personal income and GDP by county. In many cases, because of the way and what data are collected, it is difficult to sort out what part of migration, business change and other key measures are due in what part to climate change.

Quantification of climate change, and new model-based cause and effect specifications, will be reflected in the 2020 ProximityOne Situation & Outlook demographic-economic projections to 2060. For the first time, and on a continuing basis, we and our clients will be able to examine the quantified impact of climate change down to the county level of geography. This is now a topic included in the weekly Situation & Outlook web sessions.

Situation & Outlook Weekly Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook web session to discuss more details about demographic-economic estimates and projections.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

U.S. & World Population, 2020

.. changing demographics .. the U.S. population stands 330,222,422 on January 1, 2020 .. an increase of 1,991,085, 0.61%, from a year ago. The April 1, 2010 Census population was 308,758,105.


 
In January 2020, the United States experiences one birth every eight seconds and one death every 11 seconds.

.. the net international migration adds one person to the U.S. population every 34 seconds. The combination of births, deaths and net international migration will increase the U.S. population by one person every 19 seconds.

The projected world population on January 1, 2020, is 7,621,018,958, an increase of 77,684,873, or 1.03%, from a year earlier. During January 2020, 4.3 births and 1.9 deaths are expected worldwide every second.

Kickoff of Census-Sourced Vintage 2019 Population Estimates Program
Starting in December of each year, the Census Bureau develops official population estimates for July of that year. In 2020, the Bureau will progressively release population estimates with greater subject matter detail for more detailed subnational geography. These model-based estimates will be completed in June 2020 for incorporated places.

The July 2019 estimates for the U.S. and states were just released in December 2019. These estimates reflect that the natural Increase dropped below 1 million for the first time in decades due to fewer births and more deaths.

The July 1, 2019, U.S. population estimate is 328,239,523, growing by 0.5% between 2018 and 2019, or 1,552,022 people. Annual growth peaked at 0.73% this decade in the period between 2014 and 2015. The growth between 2018 and 2019 is a continuation of a multiyear slowdown since that period. More detail on U.S. and state trends will be reviewed in a subsequent post.

Population Projections & Subnational Demographics
ProximityOne uses these Census-sourced historical annal data to develop current estimates and projections to 2060. See about projections and more geographic detail in the Demographics 2060 section.

Demographic-Economic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.