Census 2020 – First Results

.. the first results of Census 2020, the apportionment data, were released on April 26, 2021.  Based on the decennial census, the United States total resident population increased from 308,745,538 (2010) to 331,449,281 (2020), a change of 22,703,743 (7.3%). For now, these data should be trusted and assumed accurate.  The apportionment data provide only total population counts at the state level.  More will be revealed about the accuracy of these data when the redistricting data are released in August 2021.

Apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives
Congressional apportionment is the process of dividing the 435 members, or seats, in the House of Representatives among the 50 states based on the population data from the decennial census. See more about congressional districts and demographic-economic characteristics. See this related web section for detailed information on apportionment. Use the interactive table to view/analyze the Census 2010 and Census 2020 apportionment data. The following view shows patterns of congressional seats based on the decennial census. Labels show the number of seats based on the 2020 Census. Color patterns show the change in seats, 2010 to 2020.

Census 2020: the Process & Challenges
Counting the total population and selected population attributes in a pandemic is not only challenging but not possible.  During 2020, as the data were collected, it seemed good news that more than two-thirds of the potential respondents had completed the questionnaire.  But then the questions set in.  Bureau public announcements frequently made reference to the number or housing units and the number of households (occupied housing units) “accounted for” reaching 90 percent and progressively more.  By observation, using administrative record data, and other methods, housing units can be much more easily counted than the population and population attributes.  Likewise, determining the number households is  easier than determining the population count and characteristics.

The fact that the state population counts were unexpectedly different from the Bureau’s model based estimates is troubling.  We seek more assurance that the count of  population and population characteristics — by location — are as represented by the apportionment data.

Census Bureau 2020 Model-Based Estimates
New Census Bureau sourced U.S. by county model-based population estimates by age/gender/race-origin as of July 1, 2020 will be released by the Bureau in May 2021.  These estimates are independent of Census 2020 and make use of methods used annually throughout the 2010-2020 period.  An upcoming blog will report on ProximityOne’s analysis of these estimates in comparison with the Census 2020 data.

ProximityOne Estimates & Projections to 2060
ProximityOne annual demographic estimates and projections 2010-2060 by county will begin a new update cycle in May 2021.  The schedule is shown here.  

Starting with the May updates, two base projection series will be developed and progressively updated: one controlled to the Census 2020 data and one based on continued use of 2020 model-based estimates. As more information is released from Census 2020. Follow this blog for more information on evolving developments.

Learn more — Join me in the Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Accessing & Using GeoDemographics Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

U.S. Demographic-Economic Insights

The results of the Census 2020 will not provide us with a good picture of the United States demographic-economic situation, mainly as a result of limited scope subject matter. While the Census 2020 data are important due to their more accurate and up-to-date small area demographics, and data tabulated by census block, only a small number of demographic subject matter items are available from Census 2020. The scope of subject matter is limited by items tabulated based on the questionnaire.

In comparison, the annual American Community Survey (ACS) data provide a much broader range of subject matter. Based largely on the 2019 ACS (the most up-to-date with data for small area geography .. released in December 2020), ProximityOne has developed tools/data to develop demographic-economic insights for the most widely used types of geography.

Demographic-Economic Insights Role & Scope
ACS and related data and ProximityOne tools have been used to develop the U.S. demographic-economic insights report, reviewed here, illustrating the scope and organization of the data and how it can be used. You can develop similar comparative analysis reports for your areas of interest. See more about the role and scope of the Demographic-Economic Insights.

U.S. National Scope Demographic-Economic Insights
View the U.S. National Scope Demographic-Economic Insights report develop using the ProximityOne Insights tool. This report is organized into two subject matter description columns, four statistical data columns and four subject matter groups. The first two statistical data columns present data based on the ACS 2019 1-year estimates. The second set of statistical data columns show data based on the 2019 ACS 5-year estimates (values centric to mid 2017). This report is a useful resource to compare/contrast data values based on the 1-year estimates side-by-side with the 5-year values. The four subject matter groups are reviewed below.

General Demographics
Graphic shows partial list of “D” items .. click graphic for larger view.
.. view this section in the U.S. Insights report.

Social Characteristics
Graphic shows partial list of “S” items .. click graphic for larger view.
.. view this section in the U.S. Insights report.

Economic Characteristics
Graphic shows partial list of “E” items .. click graphic for larger view.
.. view this section in the U.S. Insights report.

Housing Characteristics
Graphic shows partial list of “H” items .. click graphic for larger view.
.. view this section in the U.S. Insights report.

Creating Insights and Talking Points
The four subject matter groups provide a dense array of tabular statistical data that can be overwhelming to consume. Yet, not every topic can be distilled to just a few numbers. The scope of key data depends on the objective presentation, audience and desired talking points.

For example, a briefing or synopsis might include only 10-15 subject matter items such as … this report tells us that in 2019 (based on 2019 1-year estimates), the total resident population was estimated to be 328,239,523. The median age was 38.5 years. The percent high school graduates was 88.6%. The number of housing units was 139,686,209. The percent owner occupied housing units was 64.1%. These measures are roughly the same today, at the end of 2020, even with the pandemic impact. Some other measures in the report as not as reflective “as of today”.

While data shown here do not fully summarize the state of the Nation, there provide many insights. The same can said for any of the geographic areas covered. To obtain a better picture of the state of the Nation, we need supplementary subject matter, more up-to-date data and trending data that give clues into what’s happening.

Learn more — Join me in the Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Personal Consumption Expenditures by Type & State

.. using Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measures to monitor/examine the strength of a regional economy and consumer buying trends in that region and compare among regions … PCE estimates released in October 2019, show that state personal consumption expenditures increased 5.1 percent in 2018, an acceleration from the 4.4 percent increase in 2017. The percent change in PCE across all states ranged from 7.3 percent in Utah to 3.6 percent in West Virginia.

In 2018, across all states and D.C., per capita PCE was $42,757. Per capita PCE by state ranged from a high of $55,095 (MA) to a low of $31,083 (MS). Per capita PCE in D.C. $63,151. Use the interactive table to example per capita and total PCE by state for 24 categories annually 2010 to 2018.

Per Capita Personal Consumption Expenditures by Category; U.S. 2018
— how does your situation and areas of interest compare to U.S. overall?
— view, sort, query by state and year in the interactive table

Goods and services purchased by people are personal consumption expenditures (PCE). These data provide insights into the strength of a state economy and consumer buying trends. As a major component of GDP, PCE growth has recently accounted for much of the GDP growth. The data reviewed in this section are developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA, released each October). ProximityOne develops regional PCE estimates by metro and county. More about PCE.

See related sections:
• State Real Median Household Income
• State Annual Gross Domestic Product by Industry

Per Capita Consumption Expenditures by State, 2018
The following graphic shows patterns of 2018 per capita personal income expenditures (PCE). Intervals show distribution in quintiles, equal number of states per interval. The 2018 U.S. per capita PCE was $42,757. Use CV XE GIS project to examine PCE by types, per cpaita vs total, different years and change. Integrate additional subject matter and types of geography. Click graphic for larger view with details. Expand browser window for bets quality view.

– view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project & datasets.

Using the Interactive Table
— which areas have the highest health care expenditures?
Use the interactive table to examine personal consumption expenditures by type and state annually for the period 2010-2018. The following view illustrates use of the table. This view shows use a query to examine only health care expenditures. The table was then sorted in descending order to show the areas with the highest per capita health care expenditures in 2018.

Try using the interactive table to existing states or categories of interest.

Demographic-Economic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

State of the States: 2019

.. the State of the States reports and information service provide insights into demographic, economic & business characteristics.  Unique in their composition,  updated daily/weekly, the reports summarize what’s changing where & when and assessing what’s ahead. It organizes disparate Federal statistical data and presents those data in an organized, consumable manner. A resource to help determine how change might affect you, it is an indispensable resource for investors, leaders, policymakers, researchers and decision-makers. See State of the States main section for more information.  Your briefing notes, organized by state.

Some details .. the U.S. economy is slowing, dragged down by trade tensions and weak growth overseas. But there are few signs that the decade-long expansion is on the verge of stalling out. Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy, rose at a 2.1 percent annual rate in 2019Q2, down from 3.1 percent in 2019Q1, according to preliminary data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 7/26/19.

But what about the states, and what about related measures? In Texas, the 2019Q1 change from 2018Q4 was 5.1 percent annual rate. Texas ranked 2nd among all states. The 2019Q2 state GDP will be posted in section 6.5 on Nov. 7, 2019 (see in scheduled updates). How does Texas compare to other states and the U.S.  Answers are organized in the reports.  Create insights. Share with others.

Part of a multi-dimensional information resource, the state of the states report has been derived from the Situation & Outlook (S&O) database, updated daily. ProximityOne uses the historical S&O database to develop current demographic-economic estimate and projections.

View the U.S. or a State Report .. click a link
.. illustrative reports .. see more about report structure & options in report.
United States
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Demographic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

County Housing Patterns & Trends

.. at a time when “housing costs are going through the roof” and “affordable housing” are topics widely in play, current housing data at the county level are essential for business and public policy planning. In this section, new Census Bureau U.S. by county 2018 housing unit estimates are viewed .. and tools to access and use these data.

Patterns of Housing Unit Percent Change by County: 2010-2018
The graphic below shows patterns of county housing unit percent change from 2010 to 2018. Click graphic for larger view showing more detail.

– view developed using CV XE GIS software and associated GIS project.
– create similar maps for counties/areas using CV XE GIS & associated GIS project.

This section reviews the new 2018 county housing unit estimates (released May 2019) and tools and applications to analyze them. See more about topics covered here in this related Web section.

The U.S. housing stock grew by more than 1.15 million from 2017 to 2018, reaching over 138.5 million units. The growth rate of 0.8 percent from 2017 to 2018. The national housing stock increased by 6.7 million units (5.1 percent) between 7/1/2010 and 7/1/2018. But housing stock change was far from even as shown in the graphic presented above.

Total housing units are the “tip of the iceberg” to examine housing market characteristics. Yet, there are no other Federal statistical data for any other housing attribute for every county more recent than circa mid-2015. Those data are from the American Community Survey 5-year estimates for the period 2013-2017 — data going on 4 years old. For example, there are no Federal statistical data for all counties for the 2018 number of households or vacant units … let alone measures that would enable computing the size and location of affordable housing, one of many important housing market attributes. Use related 2018 and projected housing market data developed by ProximityOne available as part of the Situation & Outlook demographic-economic estimates and projections. Examine these data in context with other geographic and market characteristics in the metro Situation & Outlook reports.

Using the Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to view, rank, compare states and counties based on number of units annually 2010 to 2018 and related measures. Compare counties among metros or states .. or peer groups based on size. Here are two examples of using the table.

Largest Counties based on 2018 Housing Units
.. ranked on 2018 housing units .. click for larger view

Counties with 10,000 or more 2018 Housing Units
.. ranked on percent change 2010-2018 .. click for larger view

Data Analytics Web Sessions
See these applications live/demoed. Run the applications on your own computer.
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

New 2018 Vintage Metropolitan Areas

.. new, September 14, 2018 vintage, Core-Based Statistical Area (CBSA) delineations have been released by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB).  Among other things, the new delineations specify which counties are included in each CBSA.  CBSAs. an OMB standards term, are metropolitan areas comprised of Metropolitan Statistical Areas (now 384 MSAs in the U.S.) and Micropolitan Statistical Areas (now 542 MISAs in the U.S.).

How Metros Change Geographically
The following graphic, focused on the Charlotte, NC-SC MSA region, illustrates how MSAs are changing. 2017 vintage MSAs are shown with bold green boundary, yellow fill pattern. Cross-hatched areas are 2018 vintage MSA counties. As of the 2018 vintage, note that …
• Anson County, NC (to right of pointer) has been added to the Charlotte, NC-SC MSA.
• Union County, SC has been removed from the Spartanburg, SC MSA.
• Harnett County, NC has been added to the Fayetteville, NC MSA.

— graphic developed using CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.

What About My MSAs of Interest?
See detailed information about the 2018 vintage CBSAs/MSAs and their component counties at http://proximityone.com/cbsa2018.htm.

Impact of the 2018 Delineations
The new delineations take place immediately and have numerous impacts.  Going forward, Federal statistical agencies will develop statistics and use the new names and geocodes as set forth in the new delineations (most names and geocodes remain the same).  For CBSAs affected, which are numerous, this will result in challenges for longitudinal analyses where consistently defined geography over time is required.  The total 2017 official population estimates are affected for three of the largest 10 CBSAs using the 2018 delineations compared to the 2017 delineations.  More immediately, it may become confusing whether the 2018, 2017, 2015, or an earlier vintage CBSA geography is being referenced.  On a positive note, the 2018 vintage CBSAs are believed to best reflect the set of counties comprising a CBSA as an entity of highly related demographic-economic conditions.

Keeping Up-to-Date with Metro Demographic-Economic Data
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs/metros), comprised of one or more contiguous counties, are important for many reasons. Business, demographic and economic data for these 384 areas, each developed around an area of large population concentration, provide a “10,000 foot” view of these characteristics and how they are changing. As they are comprised of county groups, much of the subject matter data are also available for drill-down analysis at the county and sub-county levels. Metro boundaries change some over time … as more peripheral counties are added or removed depending on their demographic-economic affinity with central county(s).

Metros are an important part of the ProximityOne Situation & Outlook program. Metro demographic-economic estimates and projections are updated to reflect 2018 vintage metros. This includes all elements of the Census-sourced age-race/ethnicity-gender annual estimates and American Community Survey demographic-economic subject matter.

Designating Metros and Delineating Metro County Components
More detail … in consultation with Federal statistical agencies, OMB defines metropolitan statistical area boundaries. This section provides a summary of Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), and component Metropolitan Division and Counties/County Equivalents, as delineated in OMB Bulletin 18-04 issued September 14, 2018. These delineations take place immediately. This is a significant update affecting approximately 20-percent of previous MSA delineations (one or more county addition or removal).

Under the September 14, 2018 delineation, there are 938 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and Micropolitan Statistical Areas (MISAs) in the U.S. and Puerto Rico, collectively referred to as Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs). There are 392 MSAs (384 in the U.S. and 8 in Puerto Rico). 11 MSAs contain a total of 31 Metropolitan Divisions. There are 546 MISAs (542 in the United States and 4 in Puerto Rico).

The 384 U.S. MSAs comprise 1,181 counties of total 3,142 U.S. counties. The total 2017 population of these metros was 280,468,904 of total 325,719,178 U.S. population (86.1%).

See related sections:
• Metros Main Section
• Metros Situation & Outlook Reports
.. click link in column 3 in table in above page to view detailed report
• Metro Demographic-Economic Interactive Tables
• County Population/Components of Change Interactive Table

Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.