Tag Archives: economic trends

Climate Change & the Demographic-Economic Outlook

.. it is startling that many do not accept the reality that climate change is upon us. Climate change is, right now, affecting the demographic-economic outlook … how things will change in the next fifty years and how this change might impact each of us. A challenge is to determine how to best integrate the right set of data, variables, into our cause and effect predictive models. By doing so, we improve the quality and accuracy of projections. We can better examine what-if scenarios. Business decision-making and policy-making implications are enormous.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has recently taken the position that climate change has become a defining factor in companies’ long-term prospects.

Climate Risk Is Investment Risk
Investment strategies mean exiting/avoiding some investments that present a high sustainability-related risk, such as coal producers and new/expanded investment products that screen fossil fuels. Many others.

The impact of these types of investment risks are already appearing. While the stock market continues an unprecedented rally, energy sector companies are not performing as well. This impacts the metros/areas where they operate affecting the economic base and impacting the population/housing growth and composition.

Climate Risk Affects Personal/Family Decision-Making
As Larry Fink/Blackrock notes, what will happen to the 30-year mortgage – a key building block of finance – if lenders can’t estimate the impact of climate risk over such a long timeline? What if there is no viable market for flood or fire insurance in impacted areas? Happening now. What happens to inflation, and in turn interest rates, if the cost of food climbs from drought and flooding? Risks to human health and and migration due to climate change are already being experienced.

The Situation & Outlook — Improving Model Specification
This is our challenge — modeling economic change where emerging markets see their productivity impacted due to extreme heat and other climate impacts .. modeling migration of people and businesses being impacted by climate change .. modeling the housing infrastructure being implemented by climate change .. determining how and where climate change might impact personal income and GDP by county. In many cases, because of the way and what data are collected, it is difficult to sort out what part of migration, business change and other key measures are due in what part to climate change.

Quantification of climate change, and new model-based cause and effect specifications, will be reflected in the 2020 ProximityOne Situation & Outlook demographic-economic projections to 2060. For the first time, and on a continuing basis, we and our clients will be able to examine the quantified impact of climate change down to the county level of geography. This is now a topic included in the weekly Situation & Outlook web sessions.

Situation & Outlook Weekly Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook web session to discuss more details about demographic-economic estimates and projections.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Examining Economic Well-Being by Metro

.. examining the state of economic well-being: 2008-2017 .. expanding insights through data analytics .. tools and data to examine how and where the U.S. by metropolitan area real personal income is changing.  Real per capita personal income (RPCPI) is the best single measure of personal economic-well being. By examining RPCPI trends over a period, stakeholders can better determine if the area in improving, stable or declining. Still, RPCPI is but one important measure among many others, such as the Regional Price Parities (RPP). Use the interactive table, and related GIS tools, to examine these and other real personal income measures for the Nation’s 383 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). See related Web section for more detail.

Based on data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in May 2019, see about in statistical release dates, real state personal income grew 2.6 percent in 2017, after increasing 1.5 percent in 2016. Real state personal income is a state’s current-dollar personal income adjusted by the state’s regional price parity and the national personal consumption expenditures price index. Across metropolitan areas, the percent change ranged from 14.8 percent in Midland, MI to -5.9 percent in Enid, OK

Visually Examining Patterns of Economic Well-Being
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools provide a powerful to explore these data. The following graphic shows a view of real per capita personal income (RPCPI), 2017, for Texas MSAs. Color patterns for levels of RPCPI are shown in the inset legend. MSAs are labeled with the 2017 RPCPI rank among all U.S. MSAs. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view. The larger view shows MSAs labeled with short name and a mini-profile for Harris County (pointer).

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Using the Interactive table
The interactive table (click link to view/use) includes a row for the U.S., U.S. nonmetro area and each Metropolitan Statistical Area (383). Each row provides a 2008-17 annual time series for four items (and derived items): real per capita personal income, regional prices parities-all items, total real personal income, implicit regional price deflator.

The following graphic shows these areas ranked on RPCPI in 2017. See rightmost column rank. Click graphic for larger view. Midland, TX MSA has the 4th highest 2017 RPCPI (shown in blue; also shown in blue in the map graphic above). But … that metro experienced a decrease of 12.1 percent over the period 2010-2017 .. and down from a high RPCPI of $115,069 in 2014. The dynamics of the oil industry!

Data Analytics Web Sessions
See these applications live/demoed. Run the applications on your own computer.
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Assessing Why and How the Regional Economy is Changing

.. data, tools and insights .. which counties are experiencing the fastest economic growth? by what economic component? what does this look like on a per capita level? how might county economic change impact you? Use our county level annual estimates and projections to 2030 to get answers to these and related questions. Get started with the interactive table that contains a selection of these data for all counties and states.

Visual Analysis of Per Capita Personal Income Patterns
The following map shows changing patterns of economic prosperity, U.S. by county, based on percent change in per capita personal income, 2010 to 2017. Create variations of this view — this view uses a layer in the “US1.GIS” GIS project installed by default with all versions of the CV XE GIS software.
– click graphic for larger view.
– view developed with CV XE GIS software.

Measuring the economy and change. One important part of this is Personal Income and components of change. Personal income is the income available to persons for consumption expenditures, taxes, interest payments, transfer payments to governments and the rest of the world, or for saving. Use the interactive table to examine characteristics of counties and regions of interest; how they rank and compare. The table provides access to 31 personal income related summary measures — the interactive table shows data for one of eight related subject matter groups. See more about the scope of subject matter descriptions.

Assessing How the Economy is Changing and How it Compares
The U.S. Per Capita Personal income (PCPI) increased from $40,545 in 2010 to $51,640 in 2017 — a change of $11,095 (27.4%). Compare the U.S. PCPI (or for any area) to a state or county of interest using the table. For example, Harris County, TX (Houston) .. click the Find GeoID button below the table .. increased from $45,783 in 2010 to $53,188 in 2017 — a change of $7,405 (16.2%).

Economic Profile; 2010-2017 & Change — An Example
The following graphic shows and example of the economic profile for Harris County, TX (Houston). Access a similar profile for any county or state.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

State Demographic-Economic Briefing Notes

.. with the ever increasing availability of demographic and economic data, it can be difficult to access key up-to-date data for the U.S. and individual states, metros and counties … among other geography.

Here we look at the “tip of the iceberg” — intentionally. This section provides links to access State Demographic-Economic Briefing Notes. A summary of selected key demographic-economic measures and trends for each state are presented in comparison with the U.S. Use the Briefing Notes to facilitate briefings to others, collaboration and to obtain a snapshot of current and trending conditions. These data are mostly taken from the more detailed tables available as links at the bottom of each Briefing Notes section.

The Briefing Notes have been developed using the Regional Demographic-Economic Modeling System (RDEMS). The Briefing Notes sections and related detailed tables update frequently.

The per capita real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates, new this past week from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, for 2010 and 2015 were added today. See how this comprehensive measure of economic well-being is trending and compares to the U.S. overall in states of interest.

Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.