Tag Archives: Trends

How & Why County Demographics are Changing

.. the pandemic impact on population change remains in flux. For many counties it will impact each component of population change: births, deaths and migration. The magnitude and duration of the impact on each component will vary by county and become more measurable in the months ahead. The “How & Why County Demographics are Changing” will be updated later in 2020.

Here we look at population and components of change by county for the period 2010 to 2019 .. tools and data to examine how the U.S. by county population is changing. These latest 2019 estimates were released this spring. See more in the related web section.

Top 25 Counties with Largest Population Change 2010-2019
Create a table similar to the one shown below using the interactive table. Sort on selected criteria and within a selected state or metro.

Patterns of Population Change by County, 2010-2019
The following graphic shows how counties have gained population (blue and green) and lost population (orange and red) during the period 2010 to 2019. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Examining Population Components of Change
Population change can be examined in terms of components of change. There are three components of change: births, deaths, and migration. The change in the population from births and deaths is often combined and referred to as natural increase or natural change. Populations grow or shrink depending on if they gain people faster than they lose them. Examining a county’s unique combination of natural change and migration provides insights into why its population is changing and how quickly the change is occurring. The above graphic shows these relationships.

County Population & Components of Change 2010-2019 – Interactive Table
View/analyze county population and components of change characteristics and trends in a tabular manner using the interactive table. The following static graphic shows net migration 2010-2019 by year for Houston, TX metro component counties. Rows have been ranked in descending order based on 2010 population. It is easy to see how the net migration in Harris County has been decreasing annually since 2015.

Try it yourself. Use the interactive table to examine counties/areas of interest.

Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Analyzing Patterns of COVID-19

.. as COVID-19 impacts our demographics, economy and way of life, we look for answers about where we are and what lies ahead.  Here we review data on COVID-19 incidence and tools to analyze those data. In the coming days, weeks, we plan to augment these tools and data. See more below.  See related Web section for more detail.

Use new resources to examine/analyze patterns of COVID-19 incidence in context of related demographic-economic characteristics. Resources include the narrative/interpretative portion, interactive table and GIS tools and project/files. Data and tools are updated daily. There is no fee to use any of these resources.

COVID-19 Incidence by County in the Atlanta Metro Area
The following graphic shows patterns of COVID-19 incidence (number of cases per 1,000 population) by county. See color patterns in the inset legend. This view shows counties labeled with name and number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Use the GIS project described below to create variations of this view and develop similar views for any metro.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

The GIS resources and interactive table below makes use of the COVID-19 confirmed cases data updated daily by the New York Times. See more about the New York Times U.S. tracking page.

COVID-19 Incidence — U.S. by County
Similar to the above view, the following graphic shows patterns of COVID-19 incidence (number of cases per 1,000 population) by county for the U.S. See color patterns in the inset legend. This view shows counties labeled with name and number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Use the GIS project described below to create variations of this view and develop similar views for any metro. Click graphic for larger, more detailed view. Expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Using GIS Tools & Resources
Use the Geographic Information System (GIS) CV XE GIS software and GIS project to view maps and geospatially analyze patterns COVID-19 cases in context of related demographic-economic data. The GIS project automatically opens with the following view:

.. see details about using the mapping/GIS resources.
.. create map views for your areas of interest.

COVID-19 Confirmed Cases by County Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to view, rank, query compare patterns of COVID-19 cases. See related demographic-economic interactive tables.

The following static graphic illustrates use of the table to view daily patterns of COVID-19 cases in Cobb County, GA.

Use the interactive table to examine counties of interest.

Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Examining How Metro GDP is Changing

.. which metros had the largest 2018 real GDP? How did they change since 2010? How to they compare on a per capita basis? What about metros of interest to you? Read on …

As an investor, business or stakeholder in a metro, it is important to know how and where the economy is changing … and how one or selected metros relate to the U.S. and other metros. Is metro X changing in a different direction than metro Y? By how much, why and is there a pattern? What does the healthcare sector, for example, contribute to a metro’s gross domestic product (GDP)? How does it compare to peer metros? How is the healthcare industry trending? Metro GDP data can provide insights and answers to these important questions.  See related main Web page.

In 2018, per capita real gross domestic product (GDP) in MSAs ranged from $19,299 (The Villages, FL MSA) to $196,277 (Midland, TX MSA). The percent change in per capita real GDP by metro, 2010 to 2018 ranged from -24% (New Orleans-Metairie, LA MSA) to 126.6% (Midland, TX MSA). Use the interactive table to view these and related data.

Change in Per Capita Real GDP by Metro; 2010-2018
The following graphic shows patterns of change in per capita real GDP by metro (MSA) from 2010 to 2018. Label shows 2018 rank of the metro among all 384 MSAs based on 2018 per capita real GDP. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser to full window for best quality view.

— view created using ProximityOne CV XE GIS and associated GIS project

Top 25 Metros (MSAs) based on 2018 per capita real GDP
The following graphic shows the top 25 metros (MSAs) based on 2018 per capita real GDP labeled with rank. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser to full window for best quality view.

— view created using ProximityOne CV XE GIS and associated GIS project
 
Using the Interactive Table – 10 largest metros based on 2018 real GDP
— insights into comparative analytics and trends.
— view, rank, compare districts based on your criteria.
— example, which metros have the largest 2018 real GDP?
Use the interactive table to examine GDP characteristics and trends of metros. The following view illustrates use of the table. This view shows use a query to show the ten metros ranked on 2018 real GDP. Click graphic for larger view.

Try using the interactive table to examine metros of interest.

Demographic-Economic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Personal Consumption Expenditures by Type & State

.. using Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measures to monitor/examine the strength of a regional economy and consumer buying trends in that region and compare among regions … PCE estimates released in October 2019, show that state personal consumption expenditures increased 5.1 percent in 2018, an acceleration from the 4.4 percent increase in 2017. The percent change in PCE across all states ranged from 7.3 percent in Utah to 3.6 percent in West Virginia.

In 2018, across all states and D.C., per capita PCE was $42,757. Per capita PCE by state ranged from a high of $55,095 (MA) to a low of $31,083 (MS). Per capita PCE in D.C. $63,151. Use the interactive table to example per capita and total PCE by state for 24 categories annually 2010 to 2018.

Per Capita Personal Consumption Expenditures by Category; U.S. 2018
— how does your situation and areas of interest compare to U.S. overall?
— view, sort, query by state and year in the interactive table

Goods and services purchased by people are personal consumption expenditures (PCE). These data provide insights into the strength of a state economy and consumer buying trends. As a major component of GDP, PCE growth has recently accounted for much of the GDP growth. The data reviewed in this section are developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA, released each October). ProximityOne develops regional PCE estimates by metro and county. More about PCE.

See related sections:
• State Real Median Household Income
• State Annual Gross Domestic Product by Industry

Per Capita Consumption Expenditures by State, 2018
The following graphic shows patterns of 2018 per capita personal income expenditures (PCE). Intervals show distribution in quintiles, equal number of states per interval. The 2018 U.S. per capita PCE was $42,757. Use CV XE GIS project to examine PCE by types, per cpaita vs total, different years and change. Integrate additional subject matter and types of geography. Click graphic for larger view with details. Expand browser window for bets quality view.

– view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project & datasets.

Using the Interactive Table
— which areas have the highest health care expenditures?
Use the interactive table to examine personal consumption expenditures by type and state annually for the period 2010-2018. The following view illustrates use of the table. This view shows use a query to examine only health care expenditures. The table was then sorted in descending order to show the areas with the highest per capita health care expenditures in 2018.

Try using the interactive table to existing states or categories of interest.

Demographic-Economic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

U.S. & State Real Median Household Income Trends

.. during the past two years, 2017 and 2018, the real median household income increased by $1,627. Some states experienced a decline in real median household income in the past two years. During the previous two years, 2015 and 2016, the real median household income increased by $3,329. See details in interactive table (opens new page).

Real median household income in the U.S. increased 0.8 percent between the 2017 ACS and 2018 ACS based on the American Community Survey (ACS 2018). The U.S. MHI, based on ACS 2018 (released September 2019), was $61,937. The national MHI has been increasing since 2013. The increase from 2017 is smaller than the prior 3 years, during which MHI increased between 1.8 percent and 3.3 percent annually. This was the second consecutive year that U.S. MHI was higher than 2007.

Household income as used here is the combined gross income of all members of a household, defined as a group of people living together, who are 15 years or older. The median household income is used to examine the economic health of an area or to compare living conditions between geographic regions.

Use the interactive table and related Geographic Information System (GIS) resources to examine income trends and geographic patterns. See details on using GIS project.

Patterns of Real Median Household Income Change; 2016-2018
— change during two calendar years labeled with 2018 real MHI
— click link for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
– geospatial analyze income characteristics integrated with your data to examine patterns; gain insights.

Median Household Income in the United States: 2005–2018

U.S. & State Median Household Income: Annually 2005–2018 — Interactive Table
The following static graphic illustrates use of the U.S. & State MHI interactive table. This view shows the 10 states/areas ranked on the 2018 real median household income. See pointer, note that D.C. had the highest real 2018 MHI.  

Try it yourself. Use the table to examine different patterns … like which states experienced a decline in a selected year or over a selected period.

Alternative Measures of MHI
There are other ways to measure/estimate MHI. Possibly the most notable alternative is the Census/BLS Current Population Survey (CPS). This topic will be covered in an upcoming blog .. and how ACS and CPS MHI estimates differ. While the CPS can be used to develop state and higher level geography estimates, ACS might be preferred as MHI estimates can also be developed for counties, cities, census tracts and block groups .. and many other political/statistical areas not possible using CPS.

Demographic-Economic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Examining HMDA/CRA Census Tract Demographics

.. the ability to effectively analyze low, moderate, middle, and upper income population and households by small area geography is important to housing market stakeholders, lenders, investors, cities/neighborhoods and others. Low and moderate income data by block group and census tract are used for compliance, eligibility determination and program performance in many Federal programs and agencies. See the main Web page for more detail.

This section reviews the scope and use of the FFIEC 2019 HMDA/CRA census tract data (released September 2019). Use the interactive table to view, rank, compare selected items from these updated data for any/all tracts. Use GIS tools with these data to map and geospatially analyze these data as illustrated and further described as illustrated here. See more about banking, CRA and LMI tracts and more about these data.

Visual Analysis of Banks in Context Census Tract Demographics
Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

– view developed using CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
– install this GIS tool and related GIS project on your computer to examines patterns, market share and more.

Low & Moderate Income Population by Census Tract
Low, moderate, middle, upper income classification by census tract is based on the median family income of a specific census tract relative to the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) or non-MSA area in which the tract is located. The FFIEC data include a “low and moderate income indicator”:
1 – Low — MFI is less than 50% of the MSA/parent area MFI
2 – Moderate — MFI is from 50% to 80% of the MSA/parent area MFI
3 – Middle — MFI is from 80% to 120% of the MSA/parent area MFI
4 – Upper — MFI is 120% or more of the MSA/parent area MFI
0 – NA — MFI is 0 or not available
where MFI is the Median Family Income

Low and moderate income designation is closely associated with implementation of the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) and the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) and is a widely used in many other applications as a measure of economic prosperity.

Using the Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to examine individual tracts or sets of tracts as to their low and moderate income status and related demographics. The following view illustrates use of the table. Clicking buttons below table, this sequence of steps was used to obtain this view:
– click ShowAll
– click “Find CBSA; Low & Mod Tracts”
  >this selects tract in CBSA 26420 (Houston) that are low or mod
– click “Status Cols”
The table refreshes to show 470 tracts that are low/mod in this metro.
Finally, click the column header “Tract MFI %Region” to sort in descending order.

View your areas of interest. Start the steps over and use your CBSA code for a metro of interest.

Bankers Analytics Tools Web Sessions
Join me in a Bankers Analytic Tools Lab session (every Wednesday 3:00 pm ET) to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.
Topics:
• mapping and geospatially analyzing your data with FFIEC data
• tract demographic vintages and trends
• issues regarding MSA/MD vintage, change; about the 2018 vintage CBSAs
• defining and using assessment area geography
• examining the community & neighborhoods in context of assessment areas
• using the FDIC bank location/deposits data with FFIEC/ACS demographics
• using the FFIEC/ACS interactive table below
• alternative methods of accessing census tract ACS data

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Census Tract Demographic-Economic Characteristics & Trends

..  Census tract demographics are used in wide-ranging public and private sector applications to examine patterns and characteristics of sub-county areas. Tract level data from Census 2000Census 2010 and the American Community Survey (ACS) can be used to analyze trade/market areas, neighborhoods and other small area study areas. But what about more current data and trends since 2010? What about business establishment data and other subject matter not included in either the census or ACS data?

There are no current demographic-economic census tract data available from the Census Bureau or other Federal statistical programs. Annually released ACS 5-year estimates are available by census tract but are for 5-year periods and dated. The most recent census tract level ACS data are based on the ACS 2017 5-year estimates (ACS 1317). Those data are not for the year 2017 but estimates for ACS survey respondents for the 5 year period 2013-2017; centric to mid-2015.

Patterns of Median Household Income %Change by Census Tract
The graphic below shows patterns of economic prosperity change based on median household income percent change ACS 2012 to ACS 2017 by tract in the Dallas metro area.

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Using the Interactive Table
Use the interactive table .. click this link .. to view, query, rank, compare selected characteristics of the population, housing, educational attainment and income for census tracts based on ACS 2012 5-year, and ACS 2017 5-year data. Hundreds of additional items are available. See about related census tract data resources and applications.

Try it yourself ..
Tracts with ACS 2017 population 3,500-4,500 ranked on change in $MHI:
Replicate the following graphic using the interactive table. This view was produced by clicking the Pop17 button below the table to select only tracts with a ACS 2017 population between 3,500 and 4,500. Then the $MHI columns button was clicked to view only selected columns. Finally the qualifying tracts were sorted in descending order by clicking the $MHI Change column header cell.

Based on these estimates, tract 04013105004 in Maricopa County, AZ is top ranked, where the $MHI increased by $97,723 from the ACS 2012 5-year period to the ACS 2017 5-year period.

Corresponding API calls to access the $MHI for this tract (click links to access data):
ACS 2012 $MHIACS 2017 $MHI
Join us in an upcoming Data Analytics Web Session (see below) to learn more about using APIs to access these data and similar data.

Access more detailed ACS 2017 tract interactive tables:
  General demographics .. Social .. Economic .. Housing

Demographic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.