Category Archives: Economy

U.S. Demographic-Economic Insights

The results of the Census 2020 will not provide us with a good picture of the United States demographic-economic situation, mainly as a result of limited scope subject matter. While the Census 2020 data are important due to their more accurate and up-to-date small area demographics, and data tabulated by census block, only a small number of demographic subject matter items are available from Census 2020. The scope of subject matter is limited by items tabulated based on the questionnaire.

In comparison, the annual American Community Survey (ACS) data provide a much broader range of subject matter. Based largely on the 2019 ACS (the most up-to-date with data for small area geography .. released in December 2020), ProximityOne has developed tools/data to develop demographic-economic insights for the most widely used types of geography.

Demographic-Economic Insights Role & Scope
ACS and related data and ProximityOne tools have been used to develop the U.S. demographic-economic insights report, reviewed here, illustrating the scope and organization of the data and how it can be used. You can develop similar comparative analysis reports for your areas of interest. See more about the role and scope of the Demographic-Economic Insights.

U.S. National Scope Demographic-Economic Insights
View the U.S. National Scope Demographic-Economic Insights report develop using the ProximityOne Insights tool. This report is organized into two subject matter description columns, four statistical data columns and four subject matter groups. The first two statistical data columns present data based on the ACS 2019 1-year estimates. The second set of statistical data columns show data based on the 2019 ACS 5-year estimates (values centric to mid 2017). This report is a useful resource to compare/contrast data values based on the 1-year estimates side-by-side with the 5-year values. The four subject matter groups are reviewed below.

General Demographics
Graphic shows partial list of “D” items .. click graphic for larger view.
.. view this section in the U.S. Insights report.

Social Characteristics
Graphic shows partial list of “S” items .. click graphic for larger view.
.. view this section in the U.S. Insights report.

Economic Characteristics
Graphic shows partial list of “E” items .. click graphic for larger view.
.. view this section in the U.S. Insights report.

Housing Characteristics
Graphic shows partial list of “H” items .. click graphic for larger view.
.. view this section in the U.S. Insights report.

Creating Insights and Talking Points
The four subject matter groups provide a dense array of tabular statistical data that can be overwhelming to consume. Yet, not every topic can be distilled to just a few numbers. The scope of key data depends on the objective presentation, audience and desired talking points.

For example, a briefing or synopsis might include only 10-15 subject matter items such as … this report tells us that in 2019 (based on 2019 1-year estimates), the total resident population was estimated to be 328,239,523. The median age was 38.5 years. The percent high school graduates was 88.6%. The number of housing units was 139,686,209. The percent owner occupied housing units was 64.1%. These measures are roughly the same today, at the end of 2020, even with the pandemic impact. Some other measures in the report as not as reflective “as of today”.

While data shown here do not fully summarize the state of the Nation, there provide many insights. The same can said for any of the geographic areas covered. To obtain a better picture of the state of the Nation, we need supplementary subject matter, more up-to-date data and trending data that give clues into what’s happening.

Learn more — Join me in the Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Examine Neighborhood Demographics for any City

.. examine neighborhood demographics for any city (or county, school district ..) using the no fee, no registration new beta version of the Visual Data Analytics (VDA2) Web GIS. Nothing to install, access with any Web browser. Use this unique and powerful resource to make custom maps similar to the one shown below.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity by Neighborhood in Tampa, FL Area
Examine patterns of economic prosperity by neighborhood in context of a selected county, city or other geography. The following view shows patterns of median household income by census tract in Tampa, FL area. The bold black border shows the city boundary for Tampa; the thematic pattern shows colors associated with intervals of median household income ($MHI). The $MHI layer is set with a see through transparency enabling a view of the underlying topology. Create a view similar to this for any of the 19,500 cities in the U.S. See detailed steps to develop this view in the notes below the graphic.

Map Your Own Map View
Follow these stpe to create your own neighborhood by city map view.  Use other features of VDA2 to access demographic-economic data in a tabular or visual form.

More About VDA2 Web GIS
New in VDA2, not available in VDA1, are the table/query operations. View/analyze data for any layer in a spreadsheet/grid form.  Sort and perform queries on subject matter of interest. Click a button in the data grid to zoom to that geographic area in the map window.  The following graphic shows the VDA2 start-up view after clicking the Query/Table On/Off button. This button (shown below map window at right by pointer) toggles the table view on/off.

.. click graphic for larger view.

Learn more — Join me in the Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Housing Value Appreciation

.. U.S. housing prices rose nationwide in August, up 1.5% from the previous month, based on the FHFA Housing Price Index (HPI). Housing prices rose 8.0% from August 2019 to August 2020.

If you purchased a housing unit in 2019Q2 at $260,200 (the ACS 2019 median housing value), the value of the unit in 2020Q2 would be $271,000, an increase of 4.2%. A good deal in this era of low interest rates.

U.S. housing prices posted a strong increase in August .. the 1.5% increase is the largest one-month price increase observed since the start of the HPI measurement in 1991. This large month-over-month gain contributes to an already strong increase in prices over the summer. These price gains can be attributed to the historically low interest rates, rebounding housing demand and continued supply constraints.

The HPI has various limitations as a measure to assess the housing market. One important limitation is that it a measure in isolation; other related demographic-economic measures are not included. This is unlike the American Community Survey (ACS) estimates of the median housing value ($MHV), used as an annual, year-over-year measure of housing value appreciation.

Median Housing Value
The U.S. ACS 1-year estimate of median housing value ($MHV) increased from $229,700 in 2018 to $240,500 in 2019. The ACS 2020 estimate, which will be impacted by the pandemic, will not be available until September 2021. The ProximityOne 2020 estimate of $MHV is $270,500.

Click this API link to view a CSV-like file showing the 2019 median household income and median housing value by state. Join me in a Data Analytics Web Session (see below) to integrate these data into a map view like shown below. Add other data.

Patterns of Median Housing Value by State

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS
– click graphic for larger view

An advantage of using the ACS or ACS-like $MHV data is that this measure is synchronized with other related measures, like total population, total housing units, housing units by tenure and age built and so on. Though a popular measure to assess geographically comparable housing values, the $MHV has many limitations. A key limitation is that few survey responders really know the value of their home. Other limitations have to do with the definition itself and how the data are collected/developed. ACS $MHV measures value of only occupied housing units and excludes houses on 10 or more acres and housing units in multi-unit structures. See more. While there are other Federal sources of $MHV, it remains that the usabilty aspects of the ACS or ACS-like measures are second to none.

Learn more — Join me in the Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Tip of the Day – Examining Median Housing Value – 2020 Update

.. tip of the day .. a continuing weekly or more frequent tip on developing, integrating, accessing and using geographic, demographic, economic and statistical data. Join in .. tip of the day posts are added to the Data Analytics Blog on an irregular basis, normally weekly. Follow the blog to receive updates as they occur.

.. in this era of uncertainly, we ponder the risk and opportunity associated with changing housing value.  Median housing value by ZIP Code area is one metric of great interest to examine levels and change.  While only one measure useful to examine housing characteristics, it is part of a broader set of demographic-economic data that enable analysis of the housing infrastructure and change in a more wholistic manner. How is housing value trending at the neighborhood level in 2020 and beyond? See more about the Situation & Outlook.

.. 5 ways to access/analyze the most recent estimates of median housing value and other subject matter by ZIP Code area .. based on the American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates. See related Web section.

Option 1. View the data as a thematic pattern map
Option 1 is presented as Option 1A (using CV XE GIS) and Option 1B (using Visual Data Analytics VDA Mapserver). See more about GIS.

Option 1A. View $MHV as a thematic pattern map; using CV XE GIS:
— Median Housing Value by ZIP Code Area; Los Angeles Area
Click graphic for larger view with more detail.

Click graphic for larger view.
Use the Mapping ZIP Code Demographics resources to develop similar views anywhere in U.S.

Option 1B. View $MHV (ACS 2018) as a thematic pattern map; using VDA Mapserver:
— Median Housing Value by ZIP Code Area; Phoenix/Scottsdale, AZ area
Click graphic for larger view with more detail.

Click graphic for larger view. Expand window to full screen for best quality view. View features:
– profile of ZIP 85258 (blue crosshatch highlight) shown in Attributes panel at left
– values-colors shown in Legend panel at left
– transparency setting allows “see through” to view ground topology below.
Use VDA Mapserver: to develop similar views anywhere in U.S. using only a browser. Nothing to install.

Option 2. Use the interactive table:
– go to http://proximityone.com/zip18dp4.htm (5-year estimates)
– median housing value is item H089; see item list above interactive table.
– scroll left on the table until H089 appears in the header column.
– that column shows the 2018 ACS H089 estimate for for all ZIP codes.
– click column header to sort; click again to sort other direction.
– see usage notes below table.

Option 3. Use the API operation:
– develop file containing $MHV for all ZIP code areas in U.S.
– load into Excel, other software; link with other data.
– median housing value ($MHV) is item B25077_001E.
click this link to get B25077_001E ($MHV) using the API tool.
– this API call retrieves U.S. national scope data.
– a new page displays showing a line/row for each ZIP code.
– median housing value appears on the left, then ZIP code.
– optionally save this file and import the data into a preferred program.
– more about API tools.
Extending option 3 … accessing race, origin and $MHV for each ZIP code …
click on these example APIs to access data for all ZIP codes
.. get extended subject matter for all ZIP codes
.. get extended subject matter for two selected ZIP codes (64112 and 65201)

Items used in these API calls:
.. B01003_001E – Total population
Age
.. B01001_011E — Male: 25 to 29 years (illustrating age cohort access)
.. B01001_035E — Female: 25 to 29 years (illustrating age cohort access)
Race/Origin
.. B02001_002E – White alone
.. B02001_003E – Black or African American alone
.. B02001_004E – American Indian and Alaska Native alone
.. B02001_005E – Asian alone
.. B02001_006E – Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone
.. B02001_007E – Some other race alone
.. B02001_008E – Two or more races
.. B03001_003E – Hispanic (of any race)
Income
.. B19013_001E – Median household income ($)
.. B19113_001E – Median family income ($)
Housing & Households
.. B25001_001E – Total housing units
.. B25002_002E – Occupied housing units (households)
.. B19001_017E — Households with household income $200,000 or more
.. B25003_002E — Owner Occupied housing units
.. B25075_023E — Housing units value $500,000 to $749,999
.. B25075_024E — Housing units with value $750,000 to $999,999
.. B25075_025E — Housing units with value $1,000,000 or more
.. B25002_003E – Vacant housing units
.. B25077_001E – Median housing value ($) – owner occupied units
.. B25064_001E – Median gross rent ($) – renter occupied units

View additional subject matter options.

Option 4. View the $MHV in context of other attributes for a ZIP code.
Using – ACS demographic-economic profiles. Example for ZIP 85258:
General Demographics ACS 2018 .. ACS 2017
Social Characteristics ACS 2018 .. ACS 2017
Economic Characteristics ACS 2018 .. ACS 2017
Housing Characteristics ACS 2018 .. ACS 2017 .. $MHV shown in this profile.

Option 5. View 5- and 10-mile circular area profile from ZIP center.
– profile for ZIP 80204 dynamically made using SiteReport tool.
– with SiteReport running, enter the ZIP code, radii and click Run.
– comparative analysis report is generated in HTML and Excel structure.
Click this link to view resulting profile.
– from the profile, site 2 is 1.9 times the population of site 1.
– Site 1 $MHV is $296,998 compared to Site 2 $MHV $269,734.
– GIS view with integrated radius shown below.

This section is focused on median housing value and ZIP code areas. Many other subject matter items will be apparent when these methods are used. Optionally adjust above details to view different subject matter for ZIP codes.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

America’s Cities: Situation & Outlook

.. the path forward .. planning for the future .. in April 2019, the employment in Houston, TX was 1,111,283 with an unemployment rate of 3.2%. In April 2020, the employment in Houston, TX was 927,105 with an unemployment rate of 14.9%. What will the 2020 annual look like? 2021? There are many paths to get to 2021 and beyond. What policy and action measures might work best? What about your cities of interest? See the related Web section for more details.

Houston characteristics: Demographic .. Social .. Economic .. Housing
Get for any city/area .. e-mail your request

The pandemic impacts on America’s cities in different ways .. some experiencing little change, others with massive change. When, where and how will these disparate patterns change in cities and communities of interest? How might this change impact you and your community? A comprehensive plan needs to be developed and set in motion to achieve best outcomes. This section provides access to tools and data that stakeholders can use to examine America’s cities demographic-economic characteristics and trends. Examine cities of interest. Use ProximityOne data, tools, methods and advisory services to achieve improved results.

Of the nation’s 327.2 million people, an estimated 206.0 million (62.9%) live within an incorporated place. Of approximately 19,500 incorporated places, about 76 percent had fewer than 5,000 people and nearly 50 percent had fewer than 1,000 people. Examine characteristics of individual city population trends and compare cities in states, regions and peer groups using the interactive table below.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity; Cities 50,000 Population or More
The following view shows cities with 2019 population of 50,000 or more as markers .. mainly principal cities of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Nationally, there are 69 cities with 2019 population of 5,000 or more (determine using interactive table below). The marker color shows the median household income; see inset legend. Click graphic for larger view; expand window to full screen.

– View developed using the ProximityOne CV XE GIS software.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity; Cities 5,000 Population or More
– zoom-in to Dallas Metro
The following view shows cities with 2019 population of 5,000 or more as polygons/city boundary-area in the Dallas metro area. There are 201 cities that intersect with the Dallas metro (code 19100); 96 of these cities have a population greater than 5,000 (determine using interactive table below). The color patterns show the median household income range; see inset legend. Click graphic for larger view; expand window to full screen.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity by Neighborhood & Adjacent Areas
The following view shows patterns of median household income by block group (sub-neighborhoods) within city (bold black boundary) in the Dallas County, TX area. In examining the situation & outlook for a city it is important to examine characteristics of drill-down geography and adjacent cities/areas. Inset legend shows median household income color intervals. Click graphic for larger view; expand window to full screen. In the larger view, a cross-hatch pattern is applied to Dallas city. It is easier to see how Dallas city is comprised of a core area as well as outlying areas and extends into adjacent counties.

Interactive Analysis of Cities: Demographic-Economic Patterns & Trends
Use the interactive table to view, rank, compare cities based on demographic-economic trends and characteristics. The following static graphics provide two examples.

 

Largest 15 U.S. Cities Ranked on 2019 Population

California Cities Ranked on Educational Attainment

Learn more — Join me in the Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Business Establishment Characteristics by County

.. what are the number and types of businesses underlying county economies of interest? What is the employment size by type of business establishment? What scope of wages, earnings do they contribute? Learn more here.

The pandemic impact on businesses remains in flux .. this post tools and data that can be used to examine pre-pandemic business establishments and employment pattern characteristics by county. By examining pre-pandemic conditions, we can better assess the impact of how and why business, demographic and economic change and impact as we move forward. The magnitude and duration of the impact on businesses will vary by community/area and become more measurable in the months ahead. The “How & Where of Business Establishment/Employment Change” will be updated later in 2020. See related, more detailed web section. See related section focused business establishments by ZIP code.

Where Things are Made by County
The following graphic shows patterns of the number of manufacturing establishments (NAICS 31) by county for the U.S. 48 contiguous states. Inset legend in map view shows number of establishments by interval/color. View/examine all U.S. states and areas using the related GIS project. Create custom maps similar to this view for your regions of interest depicting establishments, employment or payroll for your type of business selection(s). Click graphic for larger view with more detail; expand browser window for best quality view.

– view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.

The above view shows patterns for only one type of business. Data are tabulated more than 2,000 NAICS/type of business codes. These data may be examined by county using the interactive table. Use the GIS tools and related GIS project to develop variations of the views shown here.

Using the Interactive Table
The 10 largest counties based on the number of manufacturing establishments are shown in the static graphic below. Click for larger view.

Use the interactive table to dynamically create similar rankings on employment size or payroll. Set a query for a county, metro or state of interest.

Updates
These data update in June 2020. Follow the blog (click button at upper right) to receive updates.

Learn more — Join us in the Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Patterns of Income in America’s Largest Cities

The retreat in personal and household income resulting from the pandemic will be historic and substantial. How long term? Which cities of what size and location will be affected the most? We start to study patterns and trends as new data become available in the next several weeks.

America’s largest 629 cities accounted for a group population of 121,228,560, or 37.1%, of the total U.S. population (327,167,434) in 2018. All of these cities are in Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). With contiguous cities and places, these urban areas account for more than 80% of the U.S. population. These cities, each with 65,000 population or more, are shown as markers in the thematic pattern view below. See more about cities/places and city/place 2010-2018 demographic trends.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity: America’s Largest Cities
– cities with 2018 population 65,000+ shown as markers
– markers show level of 2018 median household income
– data used to develop this veiw were extracted using GeoFinder.
– click map for larger view; expand browser to full screen for best quality view.

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.

Top 25 Largest Cities based on Median Household Income

About America’s Largest Cities & Economic Characteristics
The set of the 629 America’s largest cities is based on data from the 2018 American Community Survey 1-year estimates (ACS 2018). ACS 2018 1-year estimates, by design, provide data only for areas 65,000 population or more. The ACS 2018 data are the only source of income and related economic data for national scope each/all cities/places (29,853) on an annual and more recent basis. These data will update with 2019 estimates in September 2020. ACS-based data reflecting the impact of the pandemic will not be available until September 2021.

Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Climate Change & the Demographic-Economic Outlook

.. it is startling that many do not accept the reality that climate change is upon us. Climate change is, right now, affecting the demographic-economic outlook … how things will change in the next fifty years and how this change might impact each of us. A challenge is to determine how to best integrate the right set of data, variables, into our cause and effect predictive models. By doing so, we improve the quality and accuracy of projections. We can better examine what-if scenarios. Business decision-making and policy-making implications are enormous.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has recently taken the position that climate change has become a defining factor in companies’ long-term prospects.

Climate Risk Is Investment Risk
Investment strategies mean exiting/avoiding some investments that present a high sustainability-related risk, such as coal producers and new/expanded investment products that screen fossil fuels. Many others.

The impact of these types of investment risks are already appearing. While the stock market continues an unprecedented rally, energy sector companies are not performing as well. This impacts the metros/areas where they operate affecting the economic base and impacting the population/housing growth and composition.

Climate Risk Affects Personal/Family Decision-Making
As Larry Fink/Blackrock notes, what will happen to the 30-year mortgage – a key building block of finance – if lenders can’t estimate the impact of climate risk over such a long timeline? What if there is no viable market for flood or fire insurance in impacted areas? Happening now. What happens to inflation, and in turn interest rates, if the cost of food climbs from drought and flooding? Risks to human health and and migration due to climate change are already being experienced.

The Situation & Outlook — Improving Model Specification
This is our challenge — modeling economic change where emerging markets see their productivity impacted due to extreme heat and other climate impacts .. modeling migration of people and businesses being impacted by climate change .. modeling the housing infrastructure being implemented by climate change .. determining how and where climate change might impact personal income and GDP by county. In many cases, because of the way and what data are collected, it is difficult to sort out what part of migration, business change and other key measures are due in what part to climate change.

Quantification of climate change, and new model-based cause and effect specifications, will be reflected in the 2020 ProximityOne Situation & Outlook demographic-economic projections to 2060. For the first time, and on a continuing basis, we and our clients will be able to examine the quantified impact of climate change down to the county level of geography. This is now a topic included in the weekly Situation & Outlook web sessions.

Situation & Outlook Weekly Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook web session to discuss more details about demographic-economic estimates and projections.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.