Category Archives: Migration

State Population & Components of Change: 2010-2016

.. data and tools to examine how state demographics are changing 2010-2016 … using the new 2016 population and components of changes estimates. The U.S. population changed from 308,758,105 (2010) to 323,127,513 (2016), a change of 14,369,408 (4.7%). Only three states lost population. See the growth rates for DC and the remaining states in this table. Highest growth rates were in D.C., North Dakota, Texas, Utah and Colorado.

Patterns of Population Change, 2010-2016, by State
The following graphic shows the percent population change by state with labels showing the rank among all states based on the percent change in population, 2010-16.

View created with CVGIS and related GIS project. Click graphic for larger view.

Resources to Analyze these Data
Use our tools to view and analyze annual population estimates, 2010 to 2016, rankings and components of change for the U.S., regions and states. Use the interactive table below in this section to view, rank, compare these data. Use the GIS tools and ready-to use project described below in this section to create maps for states and regions of interest. Create thematic maps for any of the fields/measures shown in the interactive table. Change color patterns and labels. Integrate your own data.

Using Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to view, rank, compare, query states based on a selection of demographic measures. The following graphic illustrates how the table can be used. Click graphic for larger view.

The graphic shows the largest 10 states ranked in descending order based on 2016 population. The column “PopChg Rank 10b16” (second from right) shows the rank of this state, among all states, based on the population change from 2010 to 2016. The rightmost column shows the state’s rank for the period based on percent change in population over the period.

Largest 10 States based on 2016 Population

Try it yourself. Use the table to examine state patterns and characteristics based on your selected criteria.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

State Demographic-Economic Briefing Notes

.. with the ever increasing availability of demographic and economic data, it can be difficult to access key up-to-date data for the U.S. and individual states, metros and counties … among other geography.

Here we look at the “tip of the iceberg” — intentionally. This section provides links to access State Demographic-Economic Briefing Notes. A summary of selected key demographic-economic measures and trends for each state are presented in comparison with the U.S. Use the Briefing Notes to facilitate briefings to others, collaboration and to obtain a snapshot of current and trending conditions. These data are mostly taken from the more detailed tables available as links at the bottom of each Briefing Notes section.

The Briefing Notes have been developed using the Regional Demographic-Economic Modeling System (RDEMS). The Briefing Notes sections and related detailed tables update frequently.

The per capita real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates, new this past week from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, for 2010 and 2015 were added today. See how this comprehensive measure of economic well-being is trending and compares to the U.S. overall in states of interest.

Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

State and Regional Decision-Making Information

Organized on a state-by-state basis, use tools and geographic, demographic and economic data resources in these sections to facilitate planning and analysis. Updated frequently, these sections provide a unique means to access to multi-sourced data to develop insights into patterns, characteristics and trends on wide-ranging issues. Bookmark the related main Web page; keep up-to-date.

Using these Resources
Knowing “where we are” and “how things have changed” are key factors in knowing about the where, when and how of future change — and how that change might impact you. There are many sources of this knowledge. Often the required data do not knit together in an ideal manner. Key data are available for different types of geography, become available at different points in time and are often not the perfect subject matter. These sections provide access to relevant data and a means to consume the data more effectively than might otherwise be possible. Use these data, tools and resources in combination with other data to perform wide-ranging data analytics. See examples.

Select a State/Area

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
D.C.
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

Topics for each State — with drill-down to census block
Visual pattern analysis tools … using GIS resources
Digital Map Database
Situation & Outlook
Metropolitan Areas
Congressional Districts
Counties
Cities/Places
Census Tracts
ZIP Code Areas
K-12 Education, Schools & School Districts
Block Groups
Census Blocks

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

County Population Trends 2010-2015

.. examining the how and why of U.S. population change by county from 2010 to 2015. This section provides an overview of this topic and provides a summary of tools, interactive table and GIS project, to analyze population change by county using latest Census Bureau estimates data through 2015. These data are used by ProximityOne to develop/update annual county demographic-economic projections. See related Web section for more detail.

Patterns of Population Change by County, 2010-2015
The following graphic shows how counties have gained population (blue and green) and lost population (orange and red) during the period 2010 to 2015. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
.. see related drill-down views of Texas by county

Examining Population Components of Change
Population change can be examined in terms of components of change. There are three components of change: births, deaths, and migration. The change in the population from births and deaths is often combined and referred to as natural increase or natural change. Populations grow or shrink depending on if they gain people faster than they lose them. Examining a county’s unique combination of natural change and migration provides insights into why its population is changing and how quickly the change is occurring.

See more about these topics below:
Natural Increase/Change; birth & deaths
Migration; net international, net domestic, net migration

Interactive Analysis
Use the interactive table to view population trends and components of change for selected counties. The following graphic illustrates how the table can be used.
• Click the ShowAll button (below table)
• Click the Pop Min & Max button .. refreshes table
    to show only counties with 2015 population 250,000-300,000
• Click ChgCols button to show all 2010-15 change columns
• Click PopChg 2010-15 header column to sort.

Resulting view:
Among these counties, Horry County, SC has the largest 2010-15 population change. The peer group counties are shown in rank order.

– Click graphic for larger view.
– experiment with settings of interest.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

State-to-State Geographic Mobility: Migration Flows

.. migration data are one of the key components (births, deaths, migration) in estimating and projecting population using model-based methods.  It is the most challenging component of population change to project/forecast.  Migration data that we can “observe” are important in determining how migration has been trending and how it might change in the future for any given state or sub-state area. State-to-state and county-to-county migration flows data are important in their own right. These data tell us about where the population is moving to or from and can help develop insights into the “why” of migration from one area to another … and learn about net migration flows.

In 2013, there were an estimated 548,034 people who moved from a residence 1 year earlier, in a different state, to Texas. Texas experienced the largest number of movers (inflows) from other states among all states. 66,318 of these movers were from California. Use the interactive table to examine similar characteristics for any state. These data are based on the 2013 American Community Survey. See related data. See the related Web section for more detail about topics reviewed here and interactive access to migration data.

New York State OutMigration by Destination State

View created with CV XE GIS. Click graphic for larger view with more detail.

Visual Analysis of Mobility Patterns
The above view shows patterns of New York state outmigration by destination state. See inset legend. Note the legend shows only those states that account for 2% or more of New York out migration. Florida is the largest New York 2013 out migration destination state with 55,419 movers from New York to Florida. Intervals/colors could be changed to any configuration. The label shows total New York state out migration for that state. Expanded view shows detail more clearly. See this related view that shows a zoom-in to east coast area. Use the GIS project (see details) to create similar views for any state; visual analysis of outmigration for any state showing outmigration by destination state. Label areas as desired. Add other layers. Add your own data.

More About These Data
The American Community Survey (ACS) asks respondents age 1 year and over whether they lived in the same residence 1 year ago. For people who lived in a different residence, the location of their previous residence is collected. The state-to-state migration flows are created from tabulations of the current state (including the District of Columbia) of residence crossed by state of residence 1 year ago. An important reason to use the ACS data to examine migration patterns is because related attributes of the population can also be studied. By using the ACS Public Use Microdata Samples (a sample of individual respondent records), we can also examine patterns of state to state movers who are of a specific race/origin, age group, educational attainment, employment status and many other attributes. In addition, since the ACS data are collected/tabulated annually, these data also provide a means to examine migration trends.

Using the Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to view, rank, query and compare states based on origin and destination of movers. The following graphic illustrates use of the interactive table to rank California movers (rightmost column) descending order by migration destination state. The blue highlighted cell shows that there were 66,318 movers from California to Texas during 2013. It is easy to see the top destination states for any state by clicking the header cell for a state of interest and sorting in descending order.

Click graphic for larger view.

Support Using these Resources
Learn more about demographic economic data and related analytical tools. Join us in a Decision-Making Information Web session. There is no fee for these one-hour Web sessions. Each informal session is focused on a specific topic. The open structure also provides for Q&A and discussion of application issues of interest to participants.

State Population 2014 & Demographic Change

.. state population dynamics are changing. Learn more about how states are changing and why — using tools and resources reviewed here. Examine how these changes might impact you.

Births as one component of change … births in the U.S. for the years 2011 through 2014 are estimated at 3.97M, 3.94M, 3.96M and 3.96M (birth rates of 12.80, 12.58, 12.54, 12.46). This relatively flat pattern varies substantially by state and region. The Northeast, Midwest and West regions experienced declining births 2010-14, while the South region had a modest increase. View extensive detail on the population and population components of change in the interactive table below. Sort, rank compare states and regions based on single years or change over time. Use our GIS project to visually examine patterns. Details below. These new 2014 state population and components of change (births, deaths, migration) estimates were released December 23 and will update with 2015 estimates in late 2015. See the related Web section with interactive table and more details.

State Migration Patterns, 2010-2014
The following view shows patterns of total cumulative state net migration for the years 2011-2014 (7/1/10 to 7/1/14). See inset legend. The label shows total state net migration for the period as a percent of 2014 total population. In expanded view, the top label shows the total state net migration for the period and the bottom label shows total state net migration for the period as a percent of 2014 total population. Use the GIS project (details below) to create views with other population and population components of change or rates for any year or year group. Label areas are desired. Add other layers such as regions or divisions. Add your own data.

View created with CV XE GIS. Click graphic for larger view with more detail.

Importance of these Data; Projecting Future Patterns
These data are important. They tell stakeholders how the population is changing, when, and where by state, multi-state regions and for the U.S.; overall. Annual measures of population change provide insights into recent patterns and how the population might change during the next few years. These data do not, in general, tell us why the population is changing. More detailed estimates of state and sub-state 2014 population by age, gender and race origin will be released between now and mid-2015.

These historical data, based on facts or near-facts, are used in models to develop projections of how the population size, characteristics and distribution might evolve in the years ahead. The projections need to be updated annually to reflect the more factually based estimates. The models endeavor to capture/specify the why of population change and how change manifests itself by age, gender and race/origin — and the all important where and when.

Selected Top 10 State Rankings

Using the GIS Resources: Flexible Visual Pattern Analysis
1. Install the ProximityOne CV XE GIS
… run the CV XE GIS installer
… take all defaults during installation
2. Download the U.S. by State Population 2014 GIS project fileset
… requires ProximityOne User Group ID (join now, no fee)
… unzip U.S. State Population GIS project files to local folder c:\popest
3. Open the c:\popest\stpop2014.gis project
… after completing the above steps, click File>Open>Dialog
… open the file named c:\popest\stpop2014.gis
4. Done. The start-up view is similar to the graphic shown at the top of this section.

Using the Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to view, rank, query and compare states based on detailed characteristics. The following graphic illustrates use of the interactive table to rank states in descending order based on population change 2010 to 2014 (see pointer in rightmost column).

Click graphic for larger view.

Support Using these Resources
Learn more about demographic economic data and related analytical tools. Join us in a Decision-Making Information Web session. There is no fee for these one-hour Web sessions. Each informal session is focused on a specific topic. The open structure also provides for Q&A and discussion of application issues of interest to participants.

Model-Based County Population Estimates

.. determining “where we are now” and “about recent trends” … what is the natural increase (population change due to births less deaths only, without considering migration) in the population from year to year or over several years, for counties/regions of interest? Does the county net migration reflect population moving in or out? Is there a migration pattern/trend? What factors are responsible for migration? To know about these patterns, characteristics and trends, requires annual, up-to-date population estimates.

Population Estimates & Components of Change
The following graphic shows population estimates and components of change for Harris County, TX. Similar profiles are available for all counties; read on.

Click graphic for larger view

Census Bureau Model-Based Population Estimates
Each year the Census Bureau develops model-based estimates of the population by county. The post-census estimates are intended to provide updates to Census 2019. The estimates provide an update and more current picture of the population size, composition and how it is changing. In March 2014, the U.S. by county July 1, 2013 population estimates and components of change became available. In June 2014, the U.S. by county July 1, 2013 population estimates with breakouts by age, gender and race/origin will become available. The model-based estimates, also referred to as synthetic estimates, are separate from the annual American Community Survey (ACS) data that provides similar annual population estimates.

First of Four Sections
This section is the first of four parts focused on the structure/content, access, use and evaluation of the annual Census Bureau model-based county population estimates. This section is focused on the structure/content and access to the population estimates and components of change. The next section (June) will focus on age and race/ethnicity detail. The third section (July) will focus on use: interpretation, geospatial/visual pattern analysis/mapping with GIS tools and time series/trend analysis. The fourth section (August) will focus on comparing the Census Bureau model-based estimates to alternative estimates.

Population Estimates and Components of Change
Model-based population estimates are developed using the population identity:

P[t] = P[t-1] + B[t-1,t] – D[t-1,t] + M[t-1,t]

The population at time t (July 1, 2013) is defined as the population at time t-1 (July 1, 2012) plus births (B) occurring from time t-1 to time t, less deaths (D) occurring from time t-1 to time t, plus net migration (M) occurring from time t-1 to time t. Migration is defined as the sum of the net international migration (MI) plus net domestic migration (MD):

M[t-1,t] = MI[t-1,t] + MD[t-1,t]

Population Estimates & Components of Change Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to examine the Census 2010 population (4/1/2010 column) and annual population estimates (7/1/2010 through 7/1/2013) for all counties and metros. Each row presents the same population estimates and components of change data as shown in the profile at the top of this section. The standalone county profile will be expanded in related (upcoming) sections to show 1) alternative estimates and components of change and 2) addition of population estimates by age, gender and race/origin.

County profiles are available for any county by clicking the link in the interactive table. The Census Bureau model-based estimates will update with 2014 estimates scheduled to become available in March 2015. While these tables show data developed by the Census Bureau, most of these data are available only in data files that require processing to organize the data into a usable form.

Support & DMI Web Sessions
Learn more about using resources described in this section. Join us in a Decision-Making Information Web session. There is no fee for these one-hour Web sessions. Each informal session is focused on a specific topic. The open structure also provides for Q&A and discussion of application issues of interest to participants. We can address your specific questions about using metro and county demographic economic data and related applications.