Category Archives: Cities & Counties

Arizona’s Shifting Demographics

.. part of a state-by-state series .. these periodic posts examine how and why the state and its counties changed bwteen 2010 and 2020. Later posts will provide more of a drill-down look at change. Click the Follow link at right to receive new and updated information.

Census 2020 Arizona Demographics
The Arizona July 1, 2020 Census model-based population estimate of 7,421,401 compares to the Census 2020 population count of 7,151,502 people. The difference of -269,899 between the 2020 estimate and the 2020 count can be explained by several factors. First, the estimate is for a point in time that is three months later that the Census. There will be a tendency of the Census Bureau to adjust the Joly 1, 2020 population estimate to conform to the Census 2020 value. The July 1, 2020 estimate will likely be adjusted to reflect this change when the July 1, 2021 estimates are released April/May of 2022.

The 2020 population estimate is determined using a component method. The 2020 population estimate is the sum of the 2019 population estimate (7,291,843 for Arizona) and each of the following for the period July 1, 2019 through June 30, 2020 …
plus births (AZ 81,451)
less deaths (AZ 66,385)
plus international migration (AZ 9,272)
plus domestic migration (AZ 105,435)
plus an estimation residual (AZ -214)

Any one or a combination of these 6 estimate based values could be wrong, or the Census 2020 value could be wrong. It is likely a combination of all of these factors.

The remainder of this section is based on Census Bureau model-based estimates, released April 26, 2021. See more about these data for all U.S. counties in the Demographics 2060 section where Arizona demographic projections can be examined.

Visualizing Arizona Demographic Change
The following graphic illustrates how Arizona county demographics have changed from 2010 to 2020. The labels show the actual percent change; the color patterns, as shown in the legend, provide a visual thematic pattern view.

Examining the How and Why of Demographic Change
The following table shows a row for the state and each county, providing more detail as to the where, what/how much, how and why demographic change has occurred from 2010 to 2020.


Click graphic for larger view.

Looking Ahead
More geographically detailed data (counties for example) based Census 2020 (August 2021) will reveal much starker percentage differences between the 2020 estimates versus Census results. The ProximityOne annual estimates and projections to 2060 are developed using two basic series (and variation among those (low, base, high): Census 2020 based series and 2020 estimates series. See http://proximityone.com/demographics2060 for details.

Learn more — Join me in the Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Accessing & Using GeoDemographics Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

New Monthly Residential Construction

.. staying ahead of how and where demographics are changing. Among all monthly new authorized residential construction permit issuing cities/places, Raleigh, NC led the U.S. with 1,749 total units followed by Austin, TX with 1,563 total units in February 2021. See more about this leading economic indicator for cities/places using interactive table below. Data on housing patterns and trends are essential for wide-ranging decision-making applications. Using ProximityOne resources to examine housing characteristics and trends ..

We post monthly and more frequent updates on what New Authorized Residential Construction data are telling us. The March 2021 city/county data will be released this week. Access the latest data for your areas of interest. Click the Follow button at right to keep up-to-date.

Monthly New Authorized Residential Construction
ProximityOne maintains a national monthly time-series database providing access to new authorized residential construction data.  The table presented below summaries key subject matter items available at the city and county level.. These data are one of eleven leading economic indicators. The housing market is often one of the first economic sectors to expand or contract when economic conditions improve or decline. With only a one month lag from reference data to availability date, these measures are early indicators of housing market change. This change typically leads to other types of economic change.

Patterns of New Residential Construction: February 2021; Phoenix Area
Using GIS tools to examine new authorized residential construction .. as an example, the following graphic shows that the City of Phoenix had 1,373 new authorized total units in February 2021. Cities/places shown with black outline.

View Most Month in Tabular Form
Use the interactive table to view these data in a tabular form as shown below.

Scope of Subject Matter
The database is updated monthly and contains monthly and annual data. The scope of subject matter is illustrated as shown below — the number of new units authorized and value by type of structure for Fresno County, CA.

Learn more — Join me in the Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Accessing & Using GeoDemographics Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Examine Neighborhood Demographics for any City

.. examine neighborhood demographics for any city (or county, school district ..) using the no fee, no registration new beta version of the Visual Data Analytics (VDA2) Web GIS. Nothing to install, access with any Web browser. Use this unique and powerful resource to make custom maps similar to the one shown below.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity by Neighborhood in Tampa, FL Area
Examine patterns of economic prosperity by neighborhood in context of a selected county, city or other geography. The following view shows patterns of median household income by census tract in Tampa, FL area. The bold black border shows the city boundary for Tampa; the thematic pattern shows colors associated with intervals of median household income ($MHI). The $MHI layer is set with a see through transparency enabling a view of the underlying topology. Create a view similar to this for any of the 19,500 cities in the U.S. See detailed steps to develop this view in the notes below the graphic.

Map Your Own Map View
Follow these stpe to create your own neighborhood by city map view.  Use other features of VDA2 to access demographic-economic data in a tabular or visual form.

More About VDA2 Web GIS
New in VDA2, not available in VDA1, are the table/query operations. View/analyze data for any layer in a spreadsheet/grid form.  Sort and perform queries on subject matter of interest. Click a button in the data grid to zoom to that geographic area in the map window.  The following graphic shows the VDA2 start-up view after clicking the Query/Table On/Off button. This button (shown below map window at right by pointer) toggles the table view on/off.

.. click graphic for larger view.

Learn more — Join me in the Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

VDA Mapserver: Comparing Census Tracts & ZIP Codes

.. for small area demographic-economic analysis, census tracts and ZIP code areas both have their advantages and disadvantages.  While the same scope of subject matter data are available from the American Community Survey (ACS) and ProximityOne current estimates and projections for these geographies, it can be difficult to view how the geographic areas visually relate or intersect in a map.  A flexible solution, accessible by any Web browser, is the Virtual Data Analytics (VDA) Mapserver.  See details.  You can start using VDA immediately with nothing to install.

Visual Data Analytics Mapserver
The VDA Mapserver is a learning resource, a tool that you can use for interactive mapping and geospatial analysis using only Internet and a browser. The VDA Mapserver is set apart from related tools due to the scope and style of accessing data for wide-ranging geography and frequently updated demographic-economic subject matter data. Use the unique combination of Federal statistical data with proprietary current estimates and projections.

Other geographies and subject matter will be reviewed in subject posts.

An Illustration: ZIP Code Area 85258, Scottsdale, AZ

– click for larger view.

The above shows a zoom-in to ZIP code area 85258 in Scottsdale, AZ. A step-by-by description of how to develop this view is shown in this section of the VDA guide.

As shown in the graphic, ZIP Code area 85258 intersects with 8 census tracts. ZIP code areas and tracts are not coterminous. On average there are approximately 2.5 tracts per ZIP code area. But there are more than 150,000 intersecting combinations of ZIP Code areas and tracts. See intersecting areas and interactive table.

Learn more — Join me in the Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

America’s Cities: Situation & Outlook

.. the path forward .. planning for the future .. in April 2019, the employment in Houston, TX was 1,111,283 with an unemployment rate of 3.2%. In April 2020, the employment in Houston, TX was 927,105 with an unemployment rate of 14.9%. What will the 2020 annual look like? 2021? There are many paths to get to 2021 and beyond. What policy and action measures might work best? What about your cities of interest? See the related Web section for more details.

Houston characteristics: Demographic .. Social .. Economic .. Housing
Get for any city/area .. e-mail your request

The pandemic impacts on America’s cities in different ways .. some experiencing little change, others with massive change. When, where and how will these disparate patterns change in cities and communities of interest? How might this change impact you and your community? A comprehensive plan needs to be developed and set in motion to achieve best outcomes. This section provides access to tools and data that stakeholders can use to examine America’s cities demographic-economic characteristics and trends. Examine cities of interest. Use ProximityOne data, tools, methods and advisory services to achieve improved results.

Of the nation’s 327.2 million people, an estimated 206.0 million (62.9%) live within an incorporated place. Of approximately 19,500 incorporated places, about 76 percent had fewer than 5,000 people and nearly 50 percent had fewer than 1,000 people. Examine characteristics of individual city population trends and compare cities in states, regions and peer groups using the interactive table below.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity; Cities 50,000 Population or More
The following view shows cities with 2019 population of 50,000 or more as markers .. mainly principal cities of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Nationally, there are 69 cities with 2019 population of 5,000 or more (determine using interactive table below). The marker color shows the median household income; see inset legend. Click graphic for larger view; expand window to full screen.

– View developed using the ProximityOne CV XE GIS software.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity; Cities 5,000 Population or More
– zoom-in to Dallas Metro
The following view shows cities with 2019 population of 5,000 or more as polygons/city boundary-area in the Dallas metro area. There are 201 cities that intersect with the Dallas metro (code 19100); 96 of these cities have a population greater than 5,000 (determine using interactive table below). The color patterns show the median household income range; see inset legend. Click graphic for larger view; expand window to full screen.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity by Neighborhood & Adjacent Areas
The following view shows patterns of median household income by block group (sub-neighborhoods) within city (bold black boundary) in the Dallas County, TX area. In examining the situation & outlook for a city it is important to examine characteristics of drill-down geography and adjacent cities/areas. Inset legend shows median household income color intervals. Click graphic for larger view; expand window to full screen. In the larger view, a cross-hatch pattern is applied to Dallas city. It is easier to see how Dallas city is comprised of a core area as well as outlying areas and extends into adjacent counties.

Interactive Analysis of Cities: Demographic-Economic Patterns & Trends
Use the interactive table to view, rank, compare cities based on demographic-economic trends and characteristics. The following static graphics provide two examples.

 

Largest 15 U.S. Cities Ranked on 2019 Population

California Cities Ranked on Educational Attainment

Learn more — Join me in the Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Business Establishment Characteristics by County

.. what are the number and types of businesses underlying county economies of interest? What is the employment size by type of business establishment? What scope of wages, earnings do they contribute? Learn more here.

The pandemic impact on businesses remains in flux .. this post tools and data that can be used to examine pre-pandemic business establishments and employment pattern characteristics by county. By examining pre-pandemic conditions, we can better assess the impact of how and why business, demographic and economic change and impact as we move forward. The magnitude and duration of the impact on businesses will vary by community/area and become more measurable in the months ahead. The “How & Where of Business Establishment/Employment Change” will be updated later in 2020. See related, more detailed web section. See related section focused business establishments by ZIP code.

Where Things are Made by County
The following graphic shows patterns of the number of manufacturing establishments (NAICS 31) by county for the U.S. 48 contiguous states. Inset legend in map view shows number of establishments by interval/color. View/examine all U.S. states and areas using the related GIS project. Create custom maps similar to this view for your regions of interest depicting establishments, employment or payroll for your type of business selection(s). Click graphic for larger view with more detail; expand browser window for best quality view.

– view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.

The above view shows patterns for only one type of business. Data are tabulated more than 2,000 NAICS/type of business codes. These data may be examined by county using the interactive table. Use the GIS tools and related GIS project to develop variations of the views shown here.

Using the Interactive Table
The 10 largest counties based on the number of manufacturing establishments are shown in the static graphic below. Click for larger view.

Use the interactive table to dynamically create similar rankings on employment size or payroll. Set a query for a county, metro or state of interest.

Updates
These data update in June 2020. Follow the blog (click button at upper right) to receive updates.

Learn more — Join us in the Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

How & Why County Demographics are Changing

.. the pandemic impact on population change remains in flux. For many counties it will impact each component of population change: births, deaths and migration. The magnitude and duration of the impact on each component will vary by county and become more measurable in the months ahead. The “How & Why County Demographics are Changing” will be updated later in 2020.

Here we look at population and components of change by county for the period 2010 to 2019 .. tools and data to examine how the U.S. by county population is changing. These latest 2019 estimates were released this spring. See more in the related web section.

Top 25 Counties with Largest Population Change 2010-2019
Create a table similar to the one shown below using the interactive table. Sort on selected criteria and within a selected state or metro.

Patterns of Population Change by County, 2010-2019
The following graphic shows how counties have gained population (blue and green) and lost population (orange and red) during the period 2010 to 2019. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Examining Population Components of Change
Population change can be examined in terms of components of change. There are three components of change: births, deaths, and migration. The change in the population from births and deaths is often combined and referred to as natural increase or natural change. Populations grow or shrink depending on if they gain people faster than they lose them. Examining a county’s unique combination of natural change and migration provides insights into why its population is changing and how quickly the change is occurring. The above graphic shows these relationships.

County Population & Components of Change 2010-2019 – Interactive Table
View/analyze county population and components of change characteristics and trends in a tabular manner using the interactive table. The following static graphic shows net migration 2010-2019 by year for Houston, TX metro component counties. Rows have been ranked in descending order based on 2010 population. It is easy to see how the net migration in Harris County has been decreasing annually since 2015.

Try it yourself. Use the interactive table to examine counties/areas of interest.

Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Patterns of Income in America’s Largest Cities

The retreat in personal and household income resulting from the pandemic will be historic and substantial. How long term? Which cities of what size and location will be affected the most? We start to study patterns and trends as new data become available in the next several weeks.

America’s largest 629 cities accounted for a group population of 121,228,560, or 37.1%, of the total U.S. population (327,167,434) in 2018. All of these cities are in Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). With contiguous cities and places, these urban areas account for more than 80% of the U.S. population. These cities, each with 65,000 population or more, are shown as markers in the thematic pattern view below. See more about cities/places and city/place 2010-2018 demographic trends.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity: America’s Largest Cities
– cities with 2018 population 65,000+ shown as markers
– markers show level of 2018 median household income
– data used to develop this veiw were extracted using GeoFinder.
– click map for larger view; expand browser to full screen for best quality view.

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS software and related GIS project.

Top 25 Largest Cities based on Median Household Income

About America’s Largest Cities & Economic Characteristics
The set of the 629 America’s largest cities is based on data from the 2018 American Community Survey 1-year estimates (ACS 2018). ACS 2018 1-year estimates, by design, provide data only for areas 65,000 population or more. The ACS 2018 data are the only source of income and related economic data for national scope each/all cities/places (29,853) on an annual and more recent basis. These data will update with 2019 estimates in September 2020. ACS-based data reflecting the impact of the pandemic will not be available until September 2021.

Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

116th Congressional Districts & Patterns of Economic Prosperity

.. Congressional District Analysis and Insights .. tools to examine patterns of median household income .. median household income is one measure of economic prosperity. This section reviews patterns of median household income (MHI) by 116th Congressional Districts based on the 2018 American Community Survey 1-year estimates (ACS 2018). View, rank, compare the MHI by congressional district, among related demographic attributes using the interactive table on the main Congressional Districts page.

116th Congressional District Analysis & Insights
.. patterns of household income & economic prosperity:
Based on the ACS 2018 median household income (MHI):
• the MHI among all districts was $60,291
• the U.S. overall MHI was $61,937
As of November 2019:
• the 19 districts with highest MHI have Democrat incumbents
• the 10 districts with the highest Gini Index have Democrat incumbents
• there are 69 Republican incumbent districts above the all districts MHI
• there are 149 Democrat incumbent districts above the all districts MHI
• the MHI of the 236 Democrat incumbent districts is $66,829
• the MHI of the 199 Republican incumbent districts is $56,505
Median household income is only one measure of economic prosperity.
See more at http://proximityone.com/cd.htm.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity 116th Congressional District
The following graphic shows patterns of 2018 median household income by 116th Congressional District. Use GIS tools/data to generate similar views for any state and/or drill-down. Click graphic for larger view with more detail. Expand browser window for best quality view.

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Using the Interactive Table
— view, rank, compare districts based on your criteria.
— example,which districts have the highest median household income?
Use the interactive table to examine incumbency and and demographic characteristics of the 116th Congressional Districts (CDs). The following view illustrates use of the table. This view shows use a query to show the ten CDs having highest 2018 median household income.

Try using the interactive table to existing districts and categories of interest.

Congressional District/State Legislative District Group
Join in .. be a part of the Congressional Districts/State Legislative District (CDSLD) group. Access analytical tools and data. Learn about CDSLD analytics, patterns and trends. Share insights with like-minded stakeholders.

Demographic-Economic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

American Community Survey 2018: Geography & Access

.. there are 519 core-Based Statistical Areas (metros & micros) included as American Community Survey (ACS) 2018 tabulation areas. 2018 demographic-economic estimates are included for these and many other types of political/statistical areas — the subject of this section. This is the first in a series of posts about accessing, integrating and using the ACS 2018 data. Learn more about effective ways to use these and related data. See the main web section for more detail and access to the interactive table. The release date for the ACS 2018 data is September 26, 2019.

ACS 2018 1-year Tabulation Areas: 519 Core-Based Statistical Areas
— MSAs and MISAs

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
– geospatial analyze ACS 2018 1 year estimates integrated with your data to examine patterns; gain insights.

The 2018 American Community Survey (ACS 2018 main) is a nationwide survey designed to provide annually updated demographic-economic data for national and sub-national geography. ACS provides a wide range of important data about people and housing for every community across the nation. The results are used by everyone from planners to retailers to homebuilders and issue stakeholders like you. ACS is a primary source of local data for most of the 40 topics it covers, such as income, education, occupation, language and housing.

Determining What Data are Tabulated
The graphics below illustrate 1) the scroll section that lists the types of tabulation areas (summary levels) and 2) use of the interactive table to display a selection of CBSAs/metros (summary level 310).

ACS 2018 1-Year Summary Levels
The scroll section (see in web page) shows the summary level code (left column), part or component if applicable and summary level name.

ACS 2018 1-Year Estimates — Areas Published — Interactive Table
The interactive table (click link to view actual interactive table) enables you to list the geographic areas tabulated. This graphic shows CBSAs (MSAs and MISAs) tabulated. GeoID1 shows the unique tabulation area geocode for an area among all areas. GeoID1 inlcudes the summary level (first 3 characters), followed by state FIPS code where applicable, ‘US’ and finally the geocode for the specific area.

Demographic-Economic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.