Tag Archives: Arizona

Arizona’s Shifting Demographics

.. part of a state-by-state series .. these periodic posts examine how and why the state and its counties changed bwteen 2010 and 2020. Later posts will provide more of a drill-down look at change. Click the Follow link at right to receive new and updated information.

Census 2020 Arizona Demographics
The Arizona July 1, 2020 Census model-based population estimate of 7,421,401 compares to the Census 2020 population count of 7,151,502 people. The difference of -269,899 between the 2020 estimate and the 2020 count can be explained by several factors. First, the estimate is for a point in time that is three months later that the Census. There will be a tendency of the Census Bureau to adjust the Joly 1, 2020 population estimate to conform to the Census 2020 value. The July 1, 2020 estimate will likely be adjusted to reflect this change when the July 1, 2021 estimates are released April/May of 2022.

The 2020 population estimate is determined using a component method. The 2020 population estimate is the sum of the 2019 population estimate (7,291,843 for Arizona) and each of the following for the period July 1, 2019 through June 30, 2020 …
plus births (AZ 81,451)
less deaths (AZ 66,385)
plus international migration (AZ 9,272)
plus domestic migration (AZ 105,435)
plus an estimation residual (AZ -214)

Any one or a combination of these 6 estimate based values could be wrong, or the Census 2020 value could be wrong. It is likely a combination of all of these factors.

The remainder of this section is based on Census Bureau model-based estimates, released April 26, 2021. See more about these data for all U.S. counties in the Demographics 2060 section where Arizona demographic projections can be examined.

Visualizing Arizona Demographic Change
The following graphic illustrates how Arizona county demographics have changed from 2010 to 2020. The labels show the actual percent change; the color patterns, as shown in the legend, provide a visual thematic pattern view.

Examining the How and Why of Demographic Change
The following table shows a row for the state and each county, providing more detail as to the where, what/how much, how and why demographic change has occurred from 2010 to 2020.

Click graphic for larger view.

Looking Ahead
More geographically detailed data (counties for example) based Census 2020 (August 2021) will reveal much starker percentage differences between the 2020 estimates versus Census results. The ProximityOne annual estimates and projections to 2060 are developed using two basic series (and variation among those (low, base, high): Census 2020 based series and 2020 estimates series. See http://proximityone.com/demographics2060 for details.

Learn more — Join me in the Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Accessing & Using GeoDemographics Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Public Use Microdata Area GeoDemographics

Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs) provide most detailed U.S. wall-to-wall geography (2,378 areas) for which current year demographic-economic data are available and annually updated. Use the related Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) data to develop custom-defined subject matter estimates for one or all PUMAs.  While PUMS files contain data for respondents across the U.S., the PUMA is the most detailed unit of geography identified in the PUMS files.

PUMAs may now be one of the more obscure geographic areas for which American Community Survey (ACS) demographics are tabulated.  Their usage popularity will change in the years ahead.  In a sense PUMAs and PUMS are joined at the hip.  But 2010 vintage PUMAs are now both new and offer many analytical opportunities on their own.  “Using the PUMS data” will be blog topics in the near future.

2010 Vintage PUMA Geography
The 2,378 2010 vintage PUMAs are developed using Census 2010 geography, cover the U.S. wall-to-wall, conform to state boundaries, and where possible are comprised of whole Census 2010 census tracts. The first use of the 2010 vintage PUMAs is with the ACS 2012 PUMS and 1-year summary statistic data (released October 2013). Use this interactive table to examine 2010 PUMAs and PUMA component area geography.

PUMAs are special non-overlapping areas that partition each state into contiguous geographic units containing no fewer than 100,000 people each. 2010 PUMAs cover the entirety of the U.S.   In addition to the U.S. wall-to-wall coverage, PUMAs offer good geographic drill-down for larger metro counties and central city areas.  The graphic presented below shows PUMAs (red boundaries with yellow PUMA geocode label)  in the Phoenix, AZ area.  Viewing graphic with gesture/zoom enabled device suggested.

Phoenix, AZ area PUMAs

Phoenix, AZ area PUMAs

Where is My PUMA?
PUMA maps may be viewed in two ways.  PUMA maps are shown in state by state Web pages that may be accessed via the scroll section in the right panel of the PUMA2010 section. The maps appear in the form shown above.  Another option, providing more analytical opportunities, is to display the PUMA shapefile using GIS software such as CV XE GIS.  The second option provides the ability to view PUMAs in context with other geography, such as census tracts, and to display thematic pattern maps using the ACS 2012 data.

PUMA Summary Statistic Data
2010 vintage PUMA summary statistic data, based on the ACS 2012 1-year estimates, may be accessed via these interactive tables:
General | Social | Economic | Housing

Linking the Data to the Geography
The Phoenix area PUMA map above shows that PUMA 00110 intersects with the Scottsdale area.  We could see exactly how by adding the city/place shapefile layer to the GIS project that is also using a PUMA shapefile layer.   The five-digit code 00110 is unique only to Arizona.  To make the PUMA code nationally unique requires adding the Arizona FIPS code (04) to the PUMA code: 0400110.  Using the ACS 2012 PUMA economic characteristics interactive table (see above), we then navigate to the PUMA row of interest to see that the median household income for this PUMA (item E086) is $81,304.  This value is shown in the graphic presented below in column/item E086 for the row highlighted in blue (PUMA 0400110).  This is a close estimate to the $MHI for the Scottsdale area.  Viewing graphic with gesture/zoom enabled device suggested.

PUMA 0400110 $MHI

PUMA 0400110 $MHI

The ACS 2012-1 year estimates were released in October 2013.  The data are very fresh!  The ACS 2013-1 year estimates will be released in the fall 2014, and similarly on an annual basis — for the same PUMA geographic area definitions.  Soon we will have a time series .  Then we will able to examine trends based on wide-ranging demographic-economic data for each or all of the 2010 vintage PUMAs.