Census 2020 – First Results

.. the first results of Census 2020, the apportionment data, were released on April 26, 2021.  Based on the decennial census, the United States total resident population increased from 308,745,538 (2010) to 331,449,281 (2020), a change of 22,703,743 (7.3%). For now, these data should be trusted and assumed accurate.  The apportionment data provide only total population counts at the state level.  More will be revealed about the accuracy of these data when the redistricting data are released in August 2021.

Apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives
Congressional apportionment is the process of dividing the 435 members, or seats, in the House of Representatives among the 50 states based on the population data from the decennial census. See more about congressional districts and demographic-economic characteristics. See this related web section for detailed information on apportionment. Use the interactive table to view/analyze the Census 2010 and Census 2020 apportionment data. The following view shows patterns of congressional seats based on the decennial census. Labels show the number of seats based on the 2020 Census. Color patterns show the change in seats, 2010 to 2020.

Census 2020: the Process & Challenges
Counting the total population and selected population attributes in a pandemic is not only challenging but not possible.  During 2020, as the data were collected, it seemed good news that more than two-thirds of the potential respondents had completed the questionnaire.  But then the questions set in.  Bureau public announcements frequently made reference to the number or housing units and the number of households (occupied housing units) “accounted for” reaching 90 percent and progressively more.  By observation, using administrative record data, and other methods, housing units can be much more easily counted than the population and population attributes.  Likewise, determining the number households is  easier than determining the population count and characteristics.

The fact that the state population counts were unexpectedly different from the Bureau’s model based estimates is troubling.  We seek more assurance that the count of  population and population characteristics — by location — are as represented by the apportionment data.

Census Bureau 2020 Model-Based Estimates
New Census Bureau sourced U.S. by county model-based population estimates by age/gender/race-origin as of July 1, 2020 will be released by the Bureau in May 2021.  These estimates are independent of Census 2020 and make use of methods used annually throughout the 2010-2020 period.  An upcoming blog will report on ProximityOne’s analysis of these estimates in comparison with the Census 2020 data.

ProximityOne Estimates & Projections to 2060
ProximityOne annual demographic estimates and projections 2010-2060 by county will begin a new update cycle in May 2021.  The schedule is shown here.  

Starting with the May updates, two base projection series will be developed and progressively updated: one controlled to the Census 2020 data and one based on continued use of 2020 model-based estimates. As more information is released from Census 2020. Follow this blog for more information on evolving developments.

Learn more — Join me in the Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Accessing & Using GeoDemographics Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

116th Congressional Districts & Patterns of Economic Prosperity

.. Congressional District Analysis and Insights .. tools to examine patterns of median household income .. median household income is one measure of economic prosperity. This section reviews patterns of median household income (MHI) by 116th Congressional Districts based on the 2018 American Community Survey 1-year estimates (ACS 2018). View, rank, compare the MHI by congressional district, among related demographic attributes using the interactive table on the main Congressional Districts page.

116th Congressional District Analysis & Insights
.. patterns of household income & economic prosperity:
Based on the ACS 2018 median household income (MHI):
• the MHI among all districts was $60,291
• the U.S. overall MHI was $61,937
As of November 2019:
• the 19 districts with highest MHI have Democrat incumbents
• the 10 districts with the highest Gini Index have Democrat incumbents
• there are 69 Republican incumbent districts above the all districts MHI
• there are 149 Democrat incumbent districts above the all districts MHI
• the MHI of the 236 Democrat incumbent districts is $66,829
• the MHI of the 199 Republican incumbent districts is $56,505
Median household income is only one measure of economic prosperity.
See more at http://proximityone.com/cd.htm.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity 116th Congressional District
The following graphic shows patterns of 2018 median household income by 116th Congressional District. Use GIS tools/data to generate similar views for any state and/or drill-down. Click graphic for larger view with more detail. Expand browser window for best quality view.

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Using the Interactive Table –
— view, rank, compare districts based on your criteria.
— example,which districts have the highest median household income?
Use the interactive table to examine incumbency and and demographic characteristics of the 116th Congressional Districts (CDs). The following view illustrates use of the table. This view shows use a query to show the ten CDs having highest 2018 median household income.

Try using the interactive table to existing districts and categories of interest.

Congressional District/State Legislative District Group
Join in .. be a part of the Congressional Districts/State Legislative District (CDSLD) group. Access analytical tools and data. Learn about CDSLD analytics, patterns and trends. Share insights with like-minded stakeholders.

Demographic-Economic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

The Value of Demographic Insights

.. its a global thing, a community thing, a business thing, a personal thing … demographics tell us about how, when, where we have changed and how we might change in the future .. and how that change might impact you .. us.

How & Why are County Demographics Changing?
The following graphic shows how counties have gained population (blue and green) and lost population (orange and red) during the period 2010 to 2018. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view. What are the insights from these data, this view? How are the insights developed? Their application and use creates the value. .
– developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS.

Access these data for areas of interest:
– U.S. by state interactive table.
– U.S. by metro interactive table.
– U.S. by county interactive table.
– U.S. by city interactive table.
– U.S. by census tract interactive table.

An example of the “tip of the iceberg,” the above model-based demographic data have been developed for use in developing the more detailed American Community Survey annual demographic data — annual updates on demographics down to the block group level of geography. ~217,000 areas covering the U.S. wall-to-wall.

Valuation of Demographic Insights
Having the required demographic data is needed before value can be assigned to their use. It’s really not possible to value demographic data or insights on a financial basis alone. But here are some considerations. One way to assign a value to demographic data is on the cost basis. The above data have been developed by the Census Bureau. But they are not free to develop — the costs for the Federal programs to produce them and the cost for others providing access to the data and using them.

These demographic data enable an unestimable number of studies that result in an unestimable set of decisions in the private and public sector. Many evolve into useful insights, but certainly not all.

Census 2020 is will cost in excess of $16 billion. That’s just to get the data out there. The value of these demographic data have to be in the many trillions or much more. Plus, these demographics enable things that can be done that cannot be done with any other set of demographic data. This “uniqueness thread” runs through many demographic data programs. What is the value of being able to apportion Congress, state legislatures and thousands of other governmental bodies?

How to assign value to one decision based substantially on geodemographics?

What about the byproducts? Census 2020 relies heavily on the Census produced (with the indispensable involvement of regional governments) TIGER/Line geographic database. In essence, we have a demographic data program producing a geographic database. It can be argued that the public use TIGER database is the most valuable past of the decennial census. TIGER provides the digital map database undergirding all widely used mapservers such as Google maps and Bing. It provides the unique and near comprehensive set of standardized geographic data going down to the intersection-to-intersection street segment. It enables a near infinite set of Geographic Information System (GIS) applications.

The above addresses mainly matters of demographic data developed on a national scale. All businesses deal in their own demographics daily. This set of demographic data minimally includes staff and related consultants, etc. plus prospects and clients/customers. Many businesses do not take advantage of the potential benefits of having these data. They can often do more to use their own data, and data of competitors and about the market, to develop improved plans to meet their goals.

Demographic Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Demographics Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

  

U.S. House of Representatives 2020 Apportionment

.. Congressional Apportionment by State .. 2010 & projected 2020 state by state congressional seats.

What will the results of Census 2020 tell us us about how the House of Representatives will be reapportioned, state by state? This section examines scenarios which might occur based on state population projections. See related Web section http://proximityone.com/apportionment.htm for more detail and interactive table.

Use the GIS tools and project to make your own map views … see details
.. use in classroom .. research .. reference .. collaboration.

This section has been developed using
– 2020 apportionment population projections
.. part of the ProximityOne Situation & Outlook (S&O)
– the reapportionment/redistricting feature of the CV XE GIS software
The 2020 population projections reflect anticipated change under one scenario. Those values are then used in the CV XE GIS reapportionment operation to compute the number of House seats shown in the related table.

Apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives
— based on the 2010 Census

– view created with CV XE GIS. Click graphic for larger view with more detail.

Apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives
— based on ProximityOne 2020 Population Projections

– view created with CV XE GIS. Click graphic for larger view with more detail.

Congressional apportionment is the process of dividing the 435 memberships, or seats, in the House of Representatives among the 50 states based on the population figures collected during the decennial census. The number of seats in the House has grown with the country. Congress sets the number in law and increased the number to 435 in 1913. The Constitution set the number of representatives at 65 from 1787 until the first Census of 1790, when it was increased to 105 members. More about apportionment.

Initial Census 2020 demographic data, the apportionment data, will be released by December 31, 2020. See related Census 2010 Apportionments.

Apportionment totals were calculated by a congressionally defined formula, in accordance with Title 2 of the U.S. Code, to divide among the states the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. The apportionment population consists of the resident population of the 50 states, plus the overseas military and federal civilian employees and their dependents living with them who could be allocated to a state. Each member of the House represents, on average, about 710,767 people for Census 2010.

Using the Interactive table
The following graphic illustrates use of the 2010 & 2020 apportionment by state and historical apportionment 1910 to 2010. Sort on any column; compare apportionment patterns over time. Click graphic for larger view.
Use the interactive table at http://proximityone.com/apportionment.htm#table.

Congressional District/State Legislative District Group
Join the CDSLD Group (http://proximityone.com/cdsld.htm), a forum intended for individuals interested in accessing and using geodemographic data and analytical tools relating to voting districts, congressional districts & state legislative districts and related geography with drill-down to intersection/street segment and census block level. Receive updates on topics like that of this section.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.