Category Archives: Migration

Examining County Migration: 2010-2016

.. tools and data to examine U.S. by county migration 2010 to 2016 … is the population moving away or into your counties of interest? What are the trends; what is causing the change? What are the characteristics of the population moving in and out? How might this impact your living environment and business?

The total net international migration among all counties 7/1/2010 – 7/1/2016 was 5,641,260, an annual average of 940,432. The sum of net domestic migration among counties is zero by definition, but domestic migration among counties varies radically by size and direction. This section is focused on U.S. by county migration from 2010 to 2016. Migration is one component of change used to develop population estimates. See more about county population estimates and components of change in this related Web section.

Largest 10 Counties Based on 2016 Population
This table shows how domestic migration varies widely among the most populated counties. Use this interactive table to develop your own custom views for counties of interest.

Patterns of Population Change by County, 2010-2016
– the role and impact of migration
The following graphic shows how counties have gained population (blue and green) and lost population (orange and red) during the period 2010 to 2016. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Examining Population Components of Change
– net migration and natural change
Population change can be examined in terms of components of change. There are three components of change: births, deaths, and migration. The change in the population from births and deaths is often combined and referred to as natural increase or natural change. Populations grow or shrink depending on if they gain people faster than they lose them. Examining a county’s unique combination of natural change and migration provides insights into why its population is changing and how quickly the change is occurring.

Using the Interactive Table
– examining migration by county
Use the interactive table to examine characters of counties by states, metro or peer group. The following graphic illustrates use of the interactive table to view net migration for the Houston metro by county. The net migration button was used to select only the net migration columns, FindCBSA button used to show only counties in this metro and the final step was to sort the resulting table on 2016 population. Click graphic for larger view.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

State Population & Components of Change: 2010-2016

.. data and tools to examine how state demographics are changing 2010-2016 … using the new 2016 population and components of changes estimates. The U.S. population changed from 308,758,105 (2010) to 323,127,513 (2016), a change of 14,369,408 (4.7%). Only three states lost population. See the growth rates for DC and the remaining states in this table. Highest growth rates were in D.C., North Dakota, Texas, Utah and Colorado.

Patterns of Population Change, 2010-2016, by State
The following graphic shows the percent population change by state with labels showing the rank among all states based on the percent change in population, 2010-16.

View created with CVGIS and related GIS project. Click graphic for larger view.

Resources to Analyze these Data
Use our tools to view and analyze annual population estimates, 2010 to 2016, rankings and components of change for the U.S., regions and states. Use the interactive table below in this section to view, rank, compare these data. Use the GIS tools and ready-to use project described below in this section to create maps for states and regions of interest. Create thematic maps for any of the fields/measures shown in the interactive table. Change color patterns and labels. Integrate your own data.

Using Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to view, rank, compare, query states based on a selection of demographic measures. The following graphic illustrates how the table can be used. Click graphic for larger view.

The graphic shows the largest 10 states ranked in descending order based on 2016 population. The column “PopChg Rank 10b16” (second from right) shows the rank of this state, among all states, based on the population change from 2010 to 2016. The rightmost column shows the state’s rank for the period based on percent change in population over the period.

Largest 10 States based on 2016 Population

Try it yourself. Use the table to examine state patterns and characteristics based on your selected criteria.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

World by Country Population Projections to 2050

.. updated world population estimates and projections by country show that the world population is projected to grow from 6.9 billion in 2010 to 9.4 billion by 2050, an increase of 2.5 billion (36.5%). This section summarizes access to tools to view, compare, analyze these projections, develop alternative scenario projections, and examine underlying data used to develop the projections. Assess the implications of changing geopolitical, demographic and economic factors and how they might impact future change for areas and matters of interest. See more about these data and alternative scenario projections and impact assessment.  See related main Web section.

Largest 10 Countries based on 2050 Total Population (millions)

The following graphic shows percent change 2010-2050 by country and country code. Click graphic for larger view. Larger view shows legend with intervals/color assignment and population percent change 2010-2050 and country name as labels. Expand browser window to full screen for best quality view.

Rank/Compare Countries with the Interactive Table
The following graphic illustrates use of the  interactive table. The graphic shows countries in Asia-Oceania ranked in descending order based on 2050 population. Examine your regions of interest.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.
 

State of the States: 2010-2015

.. examining the how, why and where of population change by state from 2010 to 2015. This section provides an overview of this topic and provides a summary of tools, interactive table and GIS project, to analyze population change by state by county, using latest Census Bureau estimates data through 2015. These data are used by ProximityOne to develop/update annual national state and county demographic-economic projections. See schedule of related 2016 updates. See more about development of these data/reports below.

Updates … see related State and Regional Decision-Making Information section … frequently updated state-by-state pages.

Patterns of Net Migration by State, 2010-2015
The following graphic shows patterns of state net migration during 2010 to 2015. 14 states experienced negative net migration. See in table below. States are labeled with net migration 2010-15 as a percent of 2015 population. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Examining Population Components of Change
Population change can be examined in terms of components of change. There are three components of change: births, deaths, and migration. The change in the population from births and deaths is often combined and referred to as natural increase or natural change. Populations grow or shrink depending on if they gain people faster than they lose them. Examining a region’s unique combination of natural change and migration provides insights into why its population is changing and how quickly the change is occurring.

State by County Profiles
Click a state link to view a state by county profile. For each state, eight tables of population change are presented. Each of the eight tables shows characteristics of each/all counties in the state in addition to state overall.

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

Use the Interactive Table
.. to examine patterns in states of interest. The following interactive table graphic shows the 14 states that experienced negative domestic migration during the period 2010-2015. See full full interactive table. Click link for larger view.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

County Population Trends 2010-2015

.. examining the how and why of U.S. population change by county from 2010 to 2015. This section provides an overview of this topic and provides a summary of tools, interactive table and GIS project, to analyze population change by county using latest Census Bureau estimates data through 2015. These data are used by ProximityOne to develop/update annual county demographic-economic projections. See related Web section for more detail.

Patterns of Population Change by County, 2010-2015
The following graphic shows how counties have gained population (blue and green) and lost population (orange and red) during the period 2010 to 2015. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
.. see related drill-down views of Texas by county

Examining Population Components of Change
Population change can be examined in terms of components of change. There are three components of change: births, deaths, and migration. The change in the population from births and deaths is often combined and referred to as natural increase or natural change. Populations grow or shrink depending on if they gain people faster than they lose them. Examining a county’s unique combination of natural change and migration provides insights into why its population is changing and how quickly the change is occurring.

See more about these topics below:
Natural Increase/Change; birth & deaths
Migration; net international, net domestic, net migration

Interactive Analysis
Use the interactive table to view population trends and components of change for selected counties. The following graphic illustrates how the table can be used.
• Click the ShowAll button (below table)
• Click the Pop Min & Max button .. refreshes table
    to show only counties with 2015 population 250,000-300,000
• Click ChgCols button to show all 2010-15 change columns
• Click PopChg 2010-15 header column to sort.

Resulting view:
Among these counties, Horry County, SC has the largest 2010-15 population change. The peer group counties are shown in rank order.

– Click graphic for larger view.
– experiment with settings of interest.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

State-to-State Geographic Mobility: Migration Flows

.. migration data are one of the key components (births, deaths, migration) in estimating and projecting population using model-based methods.  It is the most challenging component of population change to project/forecast.  Migration data that we can “observe” are important in determining how migration has been trending and how it might change in the future for any given state or sub-state area. State-to-state and county-to-county migration flows data are important in their own right. These data tell us about where the population is moving to or from and can help develop insights into the “why” of migration from one area to another … and learn about net migration flows.

In 2013, there were an estimated 548,034 people who moved from a residence 1 year earlier, in a different state, to Texas. Texas experienced the largest number of movers (inflows) from other states among all states. 66,318 of these movers were from California. Use the interactive table to examine similar characteristics for any state. These data are based on the 2013 American Community Survey. See related data. See the related Web section for more detail about topics reviewed here and interactive access to migration data.

New York State OutMigration by Destination State

View created with CV XE GIS. Click graphic for larger view with more detail.

Visual Analysis of Mobility Patterns
The above view shows patterns of New York state outmigration by destination state. See inset legend. Note the legend shows only those states that account for 2% or more of New York out migration. Florida is the largest New York 2013 out migration destination state with 55,419 movers from New York to Florida. Intervals/colors could be changed to any configuration. The label shows total New York state out migration for that state. Expanded view shows detail more clearly. See this related view that shows a zoom-in to east coast area. Use the GIS project (see details) to create similar views for any state; visual analysis of outmigration for any state showing outmigration by destination state. Label areas as desired. Add other layers. Add your own data.

More About These Data
The American Community Survey (ACS) asks respondents age 1 year and over whether they lived in the same residence 1 year ago. For people who lived in a different residence, the location of their previous residence is collected. The state-to-state migration flows are created from tabulations of the current state (including the District of Columbia) of residence crossed by state of residence 1 year ago. An important reason to use the ACS data to examine migration patterns is because related attributes of the population can also be studied. By using the ACS Public Use Microdata Samples (a sample of individual respondent records), we can also examine patterns of state to state movers who are of a specific race/origin, age group, educational attainment, employment status and many other attributes. In addition, since the ACS data are collected/tabulated annually, these data also provide a means to examine migration trends.

Using the Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to view, rank, query and compare states based on origin and destination of movers. The following graphic illustrates use of the interactive table to rank California movers (rightmost column) descending order by migration destination state. The blue highlighted cell shows that there were 66,318 movers from California to Texas during 2013. It is easy to see the top destination states for any state by clicking the header cell for a state of interest and sorting in descending order.

Click graphic for larger view.

Support Using these Resources
Learn more about demographic economic data and related analytical tools. Join us in a Decision-Making Information Web session. There is no fee for these one-hour Web sessions. Each informal session is focused on a specific topic. The open structure also provides for Q&A and discussion of application issues of interest to participants.

Model-Based County Population Estimates

.. determining “where we are now” and “about recent trends” … what is the natural increase (population change due to births less deaths only, without considering migration) in the population from year to year or over several years, for counties/regions of interest? Does the county net migration reflect population moving in or out? Is there a migration pattern/trend? What factors are responsible for migration? To know about these patterns, characteristics and trends, requires annual, up-to-date population estimates.

Population Estimates & Components of Change
The following graphic shows population estimates and components of change for Harris County, TX. Similar profiles are available for all counties; read on.

Click graphic for larger view

Census Bureau Model-Based Population Estimates
Each year the Census Bureau develops model-based estimates of the population by county. The post-census estimates are intended to provide updates to Census 2019. The estimates provide an update and more current picture of the population size, composition and how it is changing. In March 2014, the U.S. by county July 1, 2013 population estimates and components of change became available. In June 2014, the U.S. by county July 1, 2013 population estimates with breakouts by age, gender and race/origin will become available. The model-based estimates, also referred to as synthetic estimates, are separate from the annual American Community Survey (ACS) data that provides similar annual population estimates.

First of Four Sections
This section is the first of four parts focused on the structure/content, access, use and evaluation of the annual Census Bureau model-based county population estimates. This section is focused on the structure/content and access to the population estimates and components of change. The next section (June) will focus on age and race/ethnicity detail. The third section (July) will focus on use: interpretation, geospatial/visual pattern analysis/mapping with GIS tools and time series/trend analysis. The fourth section (August) will focus on comparing the Census Bureau model-based estimates to alternative estimates.

Population Estimates and Components of Change
Model-based population estimates are developed using the population identity:

P[t] = P[t-1] + B[t-1,t] – D[t-1,t] + M[t-1,t]

The population at time t (July 1, 2013) is defined as the population at time t-1 (July 1, 2012) plus births (B) occurring from time t-1 to time t, less deaths (D) occurring from time t-1 to time t, plus net migration (M) occurring from time t-1 to time t. Migration is defined as the sum of the net international migration (MI) plus net domestic migration (MD):

M[t-1,t] = MI[t-1,t] + MD[t-1,t]

Population Estimates & Components of Change Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to examine the Census 2010 population (4/1/2010 column) and annual population estimates (7/1/2010 through 7/1/2013) for all counties and metros. Each row presents the same population estimates and components of change data as shown in the profile at the top of this section. The standalone county profile will be expanded in related (upcoming) sections to show 1) alternative estimates and components of change and 2) addition of population estimates by age, gender and race/origin.

County profiles are available for any county by clicking the link in the interactive table. The Census Bureau model-based estimates will update with 2014 estimates scheduled to become available in March 2015. While these tables show data developed by the Census Bureau, most of these data are available only in data files that require processing to organize the data into a usable form.

Support & DMI Web Sessions
Learn more about using resources described in this section. Join us in a Decision-Making Information Web session. There is no fee for these one-hour Web sessions. Each informal session is focused on a specific topic. The open structure also provides for Q&A and discussion of application issues of interest to participants. We can address your specific questions about using metro and county demographic economic data and related applications.

 

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