How to Assess the Hispanic Vote for the 2016 Elections?

.. a good place to start finding an answer to this question is to use the Hispanic citizen voting age population (CVAP) data. We take a look at using those data here. You can use these same tools and data to examine areas of interest.

This section is focused on using census tract level CVAP data. Census tracts cover the U.S. wall-to-wall with well-defined boundaries and average 4,000 population. The 73,057 census tracts offer a good granularity to examine citizen voting age population for neighborhoods and sections of cities or counties.

While the focus is on the Hispanic population, this population group is comprised of many specific origins (more about Hispanic population by specific origin). And, although this section is focused on the Hispanic population, the CVAP data are tabulated for several race/ethnicity combinations. We could apply these same tools to other race/ethnic combinations.

%Hispanic CVAP by Census Tract; Houston Area
— in context of Texas 114th Congressional District 29 (black boundary)
.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

This map shows how Texas 114th CD 29 has many census tracts that have high concentrations and percent of Hispanic CVAP (see legend at lower right in graphic). It is easy to where the Hispanic vote potential is by tract throughout the central Houston area. Develop thematic map patterns like this for any area of the U.S. Optionally link in voting districts/precincts, state legislative districts among many others. Modify appearance with different colors, interval/color assignments, labels among other settings.

CVAP data are available for several types of geographic areas (states, counties, census tracts, block groups, among others) from the annually updated American Community Survey (ACS) CVAP special tabulation.

How to Assess the Hispanic Vote for the 2016 Elections?
Identifying the census tracts having large numbers of Hispanic CVAP and high percentages, is a step one. But an important one. The next steps involve 1) determining the scope of the registered to vote Hispanic CVAP and 2) the registered to vote Hispanic CVAP turn-out on voting day or by absentee ballot.

Use the Interactive Table to Examine Hispanic CVAP
Use the interactive table in this related section to analyze patterns among census tracts where numbers and percent of Hispanic CVAP are large. Follow these steps to analyze pattern in the central Houston:

• Click ShowAll button below table (resets table).
• Click CountyFIPS button below table.
– refreshes table with only tracts in county 48201 (Harris County/Houston).
• Click Hispanic button below table at far right.
– refreshes table with same rows but now selected columns.
• Click the “CVAP Hispanic” column header twice.
– sorts in descending order; view now appears as:

Tract 48201221300 has the highest Hispanic CVAP (3,405) among all tracts in Harris County (48201). This tract is shown in the map below (see pointer; a zoom in to the map shown above). The tract is labeled with the tract code and the Hispanic CVAP population (3,405).

Examining Texas CD 114 29 CVAP Characteristics
The CV XE GIS Site Analysis tool was used to examine CVAP characteristics for the set of census tracts intersecting with Texas CD 114 29. This is a close but rough approximation as census tracts are not fully coterminous with CD boundaries. In this case there are 136 tracts intersecting with CD 29. Approximately 98% of the composite tracts area is coincident with the CD 29 area.

In the 2014 House election, the total CD 29 votes cast was less than 50,000. The incumbent won the election with 42,000 votes. Meanwhile, the total population for the 136 tract area was 708,709, the total CVAP was 332,060 and the Hispanic CVAP was 202,495 (ACS 2014 estimates). Roughly 150,000 eligible Hispanic CVAP voters did not vote. How to assess the potential impact of a further engaged Hispanic CVAP?

Analyzing Elections/Geographic Areas of Interest
Apply these same methods to any area in the U.S. to determine those census tracts having the highest Hispanic CVAP and the *potential* to have a relatively large Hispanic Vote in the 2016 Elections.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about analyzing characteristics of the citizen voting age population. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

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