Real Quarterly GDP Trends: State of the States

.. real gross domestic product (RGDP) decreased in 46 states and DC in 2022Q1, as real GDP for the nation decreased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent. The percent change in real GDP in 2022Q1 ranged from 1.2 percent in New Hampshire to 9.7 percent in Wyoming. Updated quarterly GDP estimates have only a 3-month lag from the reference date (e.g., 2022Q1) to access date (e.g. June 2022). Used as a time series, these data provide insights into recent economic change and prospective future change. The RGDP estimates are developed by sector, enabling an assessment of which and how sectors are contributing to change. While we look at all states in this post, California is used as an example. Examine your state(s) of interest using the tools and data described here.

See this companion video illustrating some aspects of using VDA Web GIS with the state quarterly GDP.

Analyzing Real Quarterly GDP by State Using VDA MetroDynamics
Percent Change in Real GDP, 2021Q1 to 2022Q1, U.S. by State

.. create variations of this view using VDA Web GIS .. nothing to install.
.. about MetroDynamics GIS Project
.. click here to start VDA Web GIS

Examine Real Quarterly GDP by State by Sector
GDP is estimated quarterly for 21 sectors. the following graphic shows quarterly RGDP by sector for California. Use VDA to examine these data for state(s) of interest. Step-by-step how-to details below.

View the above data as an Excel file (save to file and open with Excel).

Using VDA Web GIS to Examine GDP by State – Mapping Patterns
Follow these steps:
Start VDA Web GIS
– Select MetroDynamics Project in next form.
.. VDA user interface appears
– select States in upper left dropdown
– in legend panel, uncheck “Metros Base ..”
– in legend panel, check the top 4 States layers on
– in legend panel, check “+” by “St RGDP%Ch 21q1-22q1” layer name
.. view now shows similar to view presented above.

– click a state to view a profile of the demographic-economic attributes.
.. the profile appears in lower left panel.
.. click the HTML button, lower left, to view the attributes in HTML format.

Using VDA Web GIS to Examine GDP by State — Table/Query
Complete the above steps, then click Query/Table button (below map at right)
– a table/grid now shows below the map window
.. the table has a row for each state; columns show subject matter items
– use Select Field button to select only a few items:
  .. state name
  .. RGDP2021Q1
  .. RGDP2022Q1
  .. RGDP2021Q1-2022Q1 change
  .. RGDP2021Q1-2022Q1 % change
.. table refreshes with view shown below (sorted on RGDP2021Q1-2022Q1 % change).

Looking Ahead; Updates
New quarterly GDP by state estimates for 2022Q2 and revised annual GDP by state estimates for 2017 to 2021 and will be released on September 30, 2022.

About GDP and Measurement
State GDP estimates are updated quarterly by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The following terminology may be a useful reference.
Gross domestic product (GDP) by state is the market value of goods and services produced by the labor and property located in a state. GDP by state is the state counterpart of the nation’s gross domestic product, the most comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity.
Current-dollar statistics are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal GDP” or “current-price GDP.”
Real GDP values are inflation-adjusted statistics, these values exclude the effects of price changes.
State GDP is the lowest geographic level for which quarterly estimates of GDP are produced by BEA.
Seasonal adjustment and annual rates. Quarterly values are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” measures, are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2012). Quantity indexes are calculated using a Fisher-chained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods (quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). “Real” dollar series are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year and then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from chained-dollar levels and quantity indexes are conceptually the same. Chained-dollar values are not additive, because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year.
Chained-dollar values of GDP by state are derived by applying national chain-type price indexes to the current dollar values of GDP by state for the 21 North American Industry Classification System-based industry sectors. The chain-type index formula that is used in the national accounts is then used to calculate the values of total real GDP by state and real GDP by state at more aggregated industry levels. Real GDP by state may reflect a substantial volume of output that is sold to other states and countries. To the extent that a state’s output is produced and sold in national markets at relatively uniform prices (or sold locally at national prices), real GDP by state captures the differences across states that reflect the relative differences in the mix of goods and services that the states produce. However, real GDP by state does not capture geographic differences in the prices of goods and services that are produced and sold locally.

About VDA Web GIS
VDA Web GIS is a decision-making information resource designed to help stakeholders create and apply insight. VDA Web GIS has been developed and is maintained by Warren Glimpse, ProximityOne (Alexandria, VA) and Takashi Hamilton, Tsukasa Consulting (Osaka, Japan).

About the Author
Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

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