Housing Value Appreciation

.. U.S. housing prices rose nationwide in August, up 1.5% from the previous month, based on the FHFA Housing Price Index (HPI). Housing prices rose 8.0% from August 2019 to August 2020.

If you purchased a housing unit in 2019Q2 at $260,200 (the ACS 2019 median housing value), the value of the unit in 2020Q2 would be $271,000, an increase of 4.2%. A good deal in this era of low interest rates.

U.S. housing prices posted a strong increase in August .. the 1.5% increase is the largest one-month price increase observed since the start of the HPI measurement in 1991. This large month-over-month gain contributes to an already strong increase in prices over the summer. These price gains can be attributed to the historically low interest rates, rebounding housing demand and continued supply constraints.

The HPI has various limitations as a measure to assess the housing market. One important limitation is that it a measure in isolation; other related demographic-economic measures are not included. This is unlike the American Community Survey (ACS) estimates of the median housing value ($MHV), used as an annual, year-over-year measure of housing value appreciation.

Median Housing Value
The U.S. ACS 1-year estimate of median housing value ($MHV) increased from $229,700 in 2018 to $240,500 in 2019. The ACS 2020 estimate, which will be impacted by the pandemic, will not be available until September 2021. The ProximityOne 2020 estimate of $MHV is $270,500.

Click this API link to view a CSV-like file showing the 2019 median household income and median housing value by state. Join me in a Data Analytics Web Session (see below) to integrate these data into a map view like shown below. Add other data.

Patterns of Median Housing Value by State

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS
– click graphic for larger view

An advantage of using the ACS or ACS-like $MHV data is that this measure is synchronized with other related measures, like total population, total housing units, housing units by tenure and age built and so on. Though a popular measure to assess geographically comparable housing values, the $MHV has many limitations. A key limitation is that few survey responders really know the value of their home. Other limitations have to do with the definition itself and how the data are collected/developed. ACS $MHV measures value of only occupied housing units and excludes houses on 10 or more acres and housing units in multi-unit structures. See more. While there are other Federal sources of $MHV, it remains that the usabilty aspects of the ACS or ACS-like measures are second to none.

Learn more — Join me in the Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

State of the States: Demographic Economic Update

.. tools and resources to examine the demographic-economic state of the states .. in 2016, the U.S. median housing value was $205,000 while states ranged from $113,900 (Mississippi) to $592,000 (Hawaii). See item/column H089 in the interactive table to view, rank, compare, analyze state based on this measure … in context of related housing characteristics. These data uniquely provide insights into many of the most important housing characteristics.

Use new tools, data and methods to access, integrate and analyze demographic-economic conditions for the U.S. and states. These data will update in September 2018.

Approximately 600 subject matter items from the American Community Survey ACS 2016 database (released September 2017) are included in these four pages/tables:
• General Demographics
• Social Characteristics
• Economic Characteristics
• Housing Characteristics

GIS, Data Integration & Visual Data Analysis
Use data extracted from these tables in a ready-to-use GIS project. These ACS sourced data (from the four tables listed above) have been integrated with population estimates trend data, components of change and personal income quarterly trend data. See details in this section.

Examining Characteristics & Trends
Below are four thematic pattern maps extracted from the main sections listed above. Click a map graphic for a larger view. Use the GIS project to create variations of these views.

Patterns of Median Age by State
Yellow label shows the state USPS abbreviation; white label shows median age. Legend shows color patterns associated with percent population change 2010-2016.

– View developed using CV XE GIS software and associated GIS project.
– See item/column D017 in the interactive table to view, rank, compare, analyze state based on median age.

Patterns of Educational Attainment by State
Yellow label shows the state USPS abbreviation; white label shows % college graduates. Legend shows color patterns associated with percent population change 2010-2016.

– View developed using CV XE GIS software and associated GIS project.
– See item/column S067 in the interactive table to view, rank, compare, analyze state based on percent college graduates.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity by State
Yellow label shows the state USPS abbreviation; white label shows $MHI. Legend shows color patterns associated with percent population change 2010-2016.

– View developed using CV XE GIS software and associated GIS project.
– See item/column E062 in the interactive table to view, rank, compare, analyze state based on median household income.

Patterns of Median Housing Value by State
Yellow label shows the state USPS abbreviation; white label shows $MHV. Legend shows color patterns associated with percent population change 2010-2016.

– View developed using CV XE GIS software and associated GIS project.
– See item/column H089 in the interactive table to view, rank, compare, analyze state based on median housing value.

Examining Characteristics & Trends; Using Data Analytics
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Important Upcoming Data Releases: September 2017

.. monthly updates on recent & upcoming data analytics tools & resources .. this section provides a monthly update on important new data developments and applications/developments to further their use in data analytics. A focus of this section is on new or revised geographic, demographic and economic data. Most of these data are used to develop and update ProximityOne census tract-level up demographic-economic projections to 2022 and county-level up population by single year of age projections to 2060. See about September projection updates below on this page. This section is organized into recent past data updates and upcoming (month ahead) data releases and may be updated to reflect new or extended details. See related news and updates:
• What’s New daily updates
• Situation & Outlook Calendar

See related Web section.

Recent Past Data Releases/Access

U.S. by Census Tract 2017 HMDA Low & Moderate Income (FFIEC)
• Release date — 8/17; next update — mid 2018
• 2017 annual HMDA data — covers all income levels not only LMI
• New 2017 HMDA data
• See more information – access data.

U.S. by County Population by Single Year of Age (NCHS)
• Release date — 8/22/17; next update — mid 2018
• 2010 through 2016 annual population by single year of age
• New 2016 data extending annual series 2010 forward
• See more information – access updates.

Housing Price Index (FHFA)
• Release date — 8/22/17; next update — 11/28/17
• Quarterly HPI
• New 2017Q2 data extending quarterly time series.
• See more information – access updates.

Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by State (BEA)
• Release date — 9/20/17; next update — 11/21/17
• Quarterly GDP by Industry
• New 2017Q1 data extending quarterly time series.
• See more information – access data.

Upcoming Data Releases/Access 

2017 TIGER Digital Map Database (Census)
• Expected ~ 9/7/17
• Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding & Referencing (TIGER) data.
• Geographic data; predominately shapefiles.
.. intersection to intersection road segment geography and attributes.
• New 2017 GIS/mapping shapefiles for use with wide-ranging data
.. including with Census 2010, ACS 2016 & other subject matter.
• See more information – updates to access summarized in that section.

Census of Employment and Wages (BLS/CEW)
• Release date — 9/6/17; next update — 12/5/17
• AKA ES-202 data — establishments, employment & wages by NAICS code/type of business
• U.S. by county.
• New 2017Q1 data extending quarterly time series.
• See more information.

2016 American Community Survey 1-year estimates (Census/ACS)
• Release date — 9/14/17
• Wide-ranging demographic-economic data for areas having population 65,000+
.. all states, CDs, PUMAs, MSAs and larger cities/CBSAs/school districts/counties (817 of 3142)
• New 2016 estimates.
• See more information – updates to access summarized in that section.

SY 2015-16 Annual School & School District Characteristics (NCES)
• Expected ~ 9/14/17
• National school school & school district characteristics.
• New 2015-16 school year administratively reported data.
• Schools … see more information – access updates.
• School District … see more information – access updates.

2016 Annual Gross Domestic Product by Metro (BEA)
• Release date — 9/20/17
• GDP by Industry by Metro
• New 2016 data extending time series
• See more information – access updates.

Census Tract Estimates and Projections to 2022 — ProximityOne
• Release data ~ 9/27/17
• National census tract and higher level geography demographic-economic updates
• Annual estimates & projections; 2010 through 2022
• Updated to reflect/integrate data released through 9/2017 as summarized above   • See more information.

County Population by Single Year of Age Projections to 2060 — ProximityOne
• Release data ~ 9/27/17
• National county and higher level geography demographic updates
• Annual estimates & projections; 2010 through 2060
• Updated to reflect/integrate data released through 9/2017 as summarized above.   • See more information.

Notes [goto top]
– BEA – Bureau of Economic Analysis
– BLS – Bureau of Labor Statistics
– Census – Census Bureau
– FFIEC – Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council
– FHFA – Federal Housing Finance Agency
– NCES – National Center for Education Statistics
– NCHS – National Center for Health Statistics

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Mapping Statistical Data Updates

.. statistical mapping & visual data analysis … ready-to-use GIS projects/datasets … Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provide flexible and powerful capabilities to combine maps with data. In our increasingly data rich environment, we often experience “drowning in data.” GIS tools can help harness disparate and voluminous data and assist with data linkage. This section provides links to other sections that provide information on no cost GIS software and “production” GIS projects and datasets that you can use.

• Recent Additions
– Real Gross Domestic Product by State & Area – 06/23/16 – details
– Housing Price Index by Metro; 2015Q1-2016Q1 – 07/02/16 – details
– Housing Price Index by 5-Digit ZIP Code; 2010-2015; 07/02/16; details

Example: Mapping Median Housing Value by ZIP Code;  Los Angeles Area
Make this type of view/map for any area. Click graphic for larger view. Larger view illustrates use of identify/select tool to show mini profile for a selected ZIP code (see at pointer). Expand browser window for best quality view. Using GIS resources described here.

View developed with CV XE GIS software.

Related Topics in Mapping Statistical Data section …
• K-12 Curriculum Program
– Data Analytics & Mapping Statistical Data in the Classroom

• GIS Projects/Datasets/Applications
– World by Country
– U.S. by State
– U.S. by Congressional District
– State Legislative Districts
– U.S. by Metropolitan Area
– U.S. by County
– U.S. by City/Place
– U.S. by ZIP Code Area
– State by Census Tract (each/all states)
– State by Block Group
– State by Census Block
– K-12 Schools & School Districts
– K-12 Schools & School District Data Analytics

Join in … participate in the weekly Data Analytics Lab sessions to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

Importance of Census Tracts in Data Analytics

… census tracts are important for many reasons. It is easy to misidentify or misunderstand patterns and characteristics within cities, counties and metros which become obfuscated using these higher level, more aggregate, geographies. Many cities and counties that might be experiencing demographic-economic decline will often have bright spots that are groups of a few or many census tracts.

Patterns of Percent Population with Bachelor’s Degree
— by Census Tract; Los Angeles Metro
The following graphic shows percent population age 25 years and over with bachelor’s degree by census tract based on ACS 2014 5 year estimates for a portion of the Los Angeles metro. Accommodating different demographic-economic thresholds/patterns, different legend color/data intervals are used. The pattern layer is set to 80% transparency enabling a view of earth features. Click graphic for larger view, more detail and legend color/data intervals. This map illustrates the geographic level of detail available using census tract demographics and the relative ease to gain insights using geospatial data analytics tools.

– View developed using CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Get a Custom Map for Your Area of Interest
Use this form to request a no fee map graphic similar to the one shown above for a county of interest. Enter the request with county name and state in the text section; e.g., “Requesting social characteristics tract map for Cook County, IL.”

This section reviews reasons for the importance of census tracts in data analyyics. See related Web sections on tools, resources and methods that you can use to access, integrate and analyze U.S. by census tract general demographics data. The U.S. national scope Census Tracts Demographic-Economic Dataset contains approximately 600 subject matter items tabulated for each census tract organized into four subject matter groups:
• General Demographics
• Social Characteristics
• Economic Characteristics
• Housing Characteristics

Importance of Census Tracts for Data Analytics
Census tracts are important for many reasons.  A partial list of reasons is provided below.
• Covering the U.S. wall-to-wall, census tracts are the preferred “small area” geography for superior data analytics.
• The Census Bureau now produces annual tract demographic-economic data from the American Community Survey;  there is an evolving time-series at the tract level creating new analytical opportunities.
• Originally developed to equivalence neighborhoods, many still do.
• Defined by the Census Bureau in collaboration with local groups, tracts typically reflect boundaries meaningful for local area analysis.
• Defined generally for use with each new decennial census, most tract boundaries are stable and non-changing for ten years and many much longer.
• Designed to average 4,000 population, there are more than twice as many census tracts (73,056) than ZIP code areas (33,129).
• Tract boundaries are well-defined; unlike ZIP code areas which are subject to multi-sourced geographic definitions.
• Many data developers (e.g., epidemiologists) use census tract geography to tabulate their own small area data enabling more effective use of those data with Census Bureau census tract data.
• As a statistical geographic area (in contrast to politically defined areas, census tracts are coterminous with counties; data at the census tract level can be aggregated to the county level.
• Small area estimates for tracts are typically more reliable than for block groups.
.. census tracts are comprised on one or more coterminous block groups.
.. on average, a census tract is comprised of three block groups.
• Census tracts are used by many Federal, state and local governments for compliance and program management.

The annually updated American Community Survey provides “richer” demographic-economic characteristics for national scope census tracts. While Census 2010 provides data similar to those items in the General Demographics section, only ACS sourced data provide details on topics such as income and poverty, labor force and employment, housing value and costs, educational participation and attainment, language spoken at home, among many related items. The approximate 600 items accessible via the tract dataset are supplemented by a wide range of additional subject matter. ACS census tract data are updated annually in December of each year.

Weekly Data Analytics Lab Sessions
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about using census tract geography and demographic-economic data.  Learn more about integrating these data with other geography, your data and use of data analytics that apply to your situation.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Mapping Statistical Data

.. GIS tools & data resources that you can use for statistical mapping & visual data analysis … Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provide flexible and powerful capabilities to combine maps with data. In our increasingly data rich environment, we often experience “drowning in data.” GIS tools can help harness disparate and voluminous data and assist with data linkage. This section provides links to other sections that provide information on no cost GIS software and “production” GIS projects and datasets that you can use.

Patterns of Per Capita Personal Income Change 2008-14 by County
— relative to U.S. PCPI 2008-14 change
To illustrate, the following graphic shows patterns of per capita personal income change 2008 to 2014 by county relative to the U.S. See more information. Click graphic for larger view with legend and additional details. Make variations of this map view using resources described in this section. Optionally integrate your own data.

— view created using CV XE GIS and associated REIS GIS Project

GIS provides us with a way to improve collaboration; we can more easily comprehend and understand geographic relationships and patterns among “variables” and statistical data. As we reduce tabular data to visual representations, we are better able to communicate “what the data are telling us” among stakeholders and teams/committees. This second dimension, learning what the data are telling us, provides the power of creating insights for more effective decision-making.

Mapping Statistical Data Topics
Most applications presented in this section involve use of Windows-based desktop GIS software. The software and GIS project files and datasets are installed on your computer. These resources are available for use by members of the User Group at no fee.  Click a link below to view additional details about a topic of interest.  There you find a description of the scope and use of the data/geography, steps to access and use the GIS projects/datasets and getting started tutorials.
• World by Country
• U.S. by State
• U.S. by Congressional District
• U.S. by Metropolitan Area
• U.S. by County
• U.S. by City/Place
• U.S. by ZIP Code Area
• State by Census Tract (each/all states)
• State by Block Group
• State by Census Block
• K-12 Schools & School District Data Analytics

Applications make use of a range of statistical data from the Federal Statistical System, and other sources, integrated with shapefiles from the Census Bureau TIGER/Line shapefiles, OpenStreetMaps, and other sources.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss accessing, integrating and using these resources … and linking these data/geography with other data that relate to your situation.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.