Housing Value Appreciation

.. U.S. housing prices rose nationwide in August, up 1.5% from the previous month, based on the FHFA Housing Price Index (HPI). Housing prices rose 8.0% from August 2019 to August 2020.

If you purchased a housing unit in 2019Q2 at $260,200 (the ACS 2019 median housing value), the value of the unit in 2020Q2 would be $271,000, an increase of 4.2%. A good deal in this era of low interest rates.

U.S. housing prices posted a strong increase in August .. the 1.5% increase is the largest one-month price increase observed since the start of the HPI measurement in 1991. This large month-over-month gain contributes to an already strong increase in prices over the summer. These price gains can be attributed to the historically low interest rates, rebounding housing demand and continued supply constraints.

The HPI has various limitations as a measure to assess the housing market. One important limitation is that it a measure in isolation; other related demographic-economic measures are not included. This is unlike the American Community Survey (ACS) estimates of the median housing value ($MHV), used as an annual, year-over-year measure of housing value appreciation.

Median Housing Value
The U.S. ACS 1-year estimate of median housing value ($MHV) increased from $229,700 in 2018 to $240,500 in 2019. The ACS 2020 estimate, which will be impacted by the pandemic, will not be available until September 2021. The ProximityOne 2020 estimate of $MHV is $270,500.

Click this API link to view a CSV-like file showing the 2019 median household income and median housing value by state. Join me in a Data Analytics Web Session (see below) to integrate these data into a map view like shown below. Add other data.

Patterns of Median Housing Value by State

– view developed using ProximityOne CV XE GIS
– click graphic for larger view

An advantage of using the ACS or ACS-like $MHV data is that this measure is synchronized with other related measures, like total population, total housing units, housing units by tenure and age built and so on. Though a popular measure to assess geographically comparable housing values, the $MHV has many limitations. A key limitation is that few survey responders really know the value of their home. Other limitations have to do with the definition itself and how the data are collected/developed. ACS $MHV measures value of only occupied housing units and excludes houses on 10 or more acres and housing units in multi-unit structures. See more. While there are other Federal sources of $MHV, it remains that the usabilty aspects of the ACS or ACS-like measures are second to none.

Learn more — Join me in the Situation & Outlook Web Sessions
Join me in a Situation & Outlook Web Session where we discuss topics relating to measuring and interpreting the where, what, when, how and how much demographic-economic change is occurring and it’s impact.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for national scope statistical programs and innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Housing Price Index 2017Q3-2018Q3

.. this past week the 3rd quarter 2018 (2018Q3) Housing Price Index (HPI) was released for the U.S., states and metros. As a leading economic indicator, the HPI often gives insights into how the housing market and economy might be changing in the months ahead. The fact that the HPI data are quarterly and become available with a short lag time makes the measure even more valuable. This section provides an update on the HPI 2018Q3 and quarterly data for the past year. See the related Web page for more detailed data and access to the HPI data via interactive table.

Visual Analysis of 2017Q3-2018Q3 HPI Patterns
The following graphic shows housing value appreciation 2017Q3-2018Q3 by metro based on the HPI.

Click graphic for larger view and details. This view developed using CV XE GIS and related GIS project. Members of the ProximityOne User Group (join now, no fee) may used the CV XE GIS software and GIS project to create similar views with different HPI measures. Zoom-in. Add labels. Add other geography/data. Create views/graphics for reports and stories.

The Larger Picture
The HPI is calculated using home sales price information from Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-acquired mortgages. By itself, the HPI provides limited insights into the broader picture of “the why” and “how otherwise” states and metros are changing. The Situation & Outlook Metro Profiles provide an integrated view of the HPI measure in combination with other economic, demographic and business activity measure. View the HPI integrated with other subject matter … choose a metro. Metro Profiles are updated continuously and are available for each of the metropolitan area.

HPI Interactive Table
Use the HPI interactive table to view/rank/compare the non-seasonally adjusted “all transactions” HPI for the most recent 5 quarters for all Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), states and the U.S. The graphic shown below illustrates use of the interactive table to rank all metros in descending order on the percent change over the past year.

Updates & Related Measures
Quarterly HPI measures are used to updated the interactive table, GIS project and Metro Profiles. HPI by county, ZIP Code and census tract are updated annually. The 2018 county, ZIP Code and census tract HPI data are scheduled for release in February 2019.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Housing Price Index Updates & Trends

.. this past week we have updated Housing Price Index data and tools to examine patterns and trends for the U.S., states, metros and counties .. the Housing Price Index (HPI) is one of many measures useful to gain insights into the housing market. The HPI provides information on how housing value appreciation is changing for areas of interest. Use the interactive table to view, compare, sort metros/CBSAs based on annual HPI 2010-2017 and housing value appreciation during the period. These annual data, with a 2000 base index value of 100, provide insights into longer term patterns.  The HPI is alos updated quarterly for U.S./state/metro areas quarterly for analyses requiring more recent data.  These data are new as of February 2018.

Visual Analysis of Housing Price Appreciation
The following graphic shows housing value appreciation as of 2017 based on the HPI with 2000 base of 100 by county in the Charlotte, NC-SC metro area. See more about by HPI by county for the Charlotte metro.

– view developed using CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
– Click graphic for larger view and details.

See similar HPI 2017 patterns view for the Houston, TX metro.

Housing Price Appreciation 2010-2017 — Largest 10 Metros
This table, derived from the  interactive table, shows the largest 10 metros based on total population. the HPI 2010, HPI 2017, housing price appreciation 2010-2017 and total population are presented in the table. Click the CBSA code link to view HPI by county component for the metro and an extended series.

Metro	CBSA	HPI2010	HPI2017	HPA1017	Pop2016
New York	35620	159.53	172.76	8.29	20,153,634
Los Angeles	31080	169.83	242.78	42.95	13,310,447
Chicago	16980	117.48	124.58	6.04	9,512,999
Dallas	19100	120.89	175.35	45.05	7,233,323
Houston	26420	134.02	183.52	36.93	6,772,470
Washington	47900	166.82	198.74	19.13	6,131,977
PhiladelphiaA	37980	157.26	162.91	3.59	6,070,500
Miami	33100	140.43	213.91	52.33	6,066,387
Atlanta	12060	103.95	129.24	24.33	5,789,700
Boston	14460	134.33	165.27	23.03	4,794,447

– Metro names abbreviated; use table to view full name and code.

Using the HPI Annual 2010-2017 Interactive Table
The following graphic illustrates use of the HPI Annual 2010-2017 interactive table. Click graphic for larger view. This view shows metros in the 250,000-300,000 population peer group. Set your own criteria using tools below the table. There are 23 metros in this group. The table has been sorted on housing price appreciation (HPA) from 2010-2017 (second column from right). It shows that the Merced, CA metro had the highest HPA — 82.13% di=uring this period.

Use the interactive table and examine areas of interest.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

 

 

Important Upcoming Data Releases: September 2017

.. monthly updates on recent & upcoming data analytics tools & resources .. this section provides a monthly update on important new data developments and applications/developments to further their use in data analytics. A focus of this section is on new or revised geographic, demographic and economic data. Most of these data are used to develop and update ProximityOne census tract-level up demographic-economic projections to 2022 and county-level up population by single year of age projections to 2060. See about September projection updates below on this page. This section is organized into recent past data updates and upcoming (month ahead) data releases and may be updated to reflect new or extended details. See related news and updates:
• What’s New daily updates
• Situation & Outlook Calendar

See related Web section.

Recent Past Data Releases/Access

U.S. by Census Tract 2017 HMDA Low & Moderate Income (FFIEC)
• Release date — 8/17; next update — mid 2018
• 2017 annual HMDA data — covers all income levels not only LMI
• New 2017 HMDA data
• See more information – access data.

U.S. by County Population by Single Year of Age (NCHS)
• Release date — 8/22/17; next update — mid 2018
• 2010 through 2016 annual population by single year of age
• New 2016 data extending annual series 2010 forward
• See more information – access updates.

Housing Price Index (FHFA)
• Release date — 8/22/17; next update — 11/28/17
• Quarterly HPI
• New 2017Q2 data extending quarterly time series.
• See more information – access updates.

Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by State (BEA)
• Release date — 9/20/17; next update — 11/21/17
• Quarterly GDP by Industry
• New 2017Q1 data extending quarterly time series.
• See more information – access data.

Upcoming Data Releases/Access 

2017 TIGER Digital Map Database (Census)
• Expected ~ 9/7/17
• Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding & Referencing (TIGER) data.
• Geographic data; predominately shapefiles.
.. intersection to intersection road segment geography and attributes.
• New 2017 GIS/mapping shapefiles for use with wide-ranging data
.. including with Census 2010, ACS 2016 & other subject matter.
• See more information – updates to access summarized in that section.

Census of Employment and Wages (BLS/CEW)
• Release date — 9/6/17; next update — 12/5/17
• AKA ES-202 data — establishments, employment & wages by NAICS code/type of business
• U.S. by county.
• New 2017Q1 data extending quarterly time series.
• See more information.

2016 American Community Survey 1-year estimates (Census/ACS)
• Release date — 9/14/17
• Wide-ranging demographic-economic data for areas having population 65,000+
.. all states, CDs, PUMAs, MSAs and larger cities/CBSAs/school districts/counties (817 of 3142)
• New 2016 estimates.
• See more information – updates to access summarized in that section.

SY 2015-16 Annual School & School District Characteristics (NCES)
• Expected ~ 9/14/17
• National school school & school district characteristics.
• New 2015-16 school year administratively reported data.
• Schools … see more information – access updates.
• School District … see more information – access updates.

2016 Annual Gross Domestic Product by Metro (BEA)
• Release date — 9/20/17
• GDP by Industry by Metro
• New 2016 data extending time series
• See more information – access updates.

Census Tract Estimates and Projections to 2022 — ProximityOne
• Release data ~ 9/27/17
• National census tract and higher level geography demographic-economic updates
• Annual estimates & projections; 2010 through 2022
• Updated to reflect/integrate data released through 9/2017 as summarized above   • See more information.

County Population by Single Year of Age Projections to 2060 — ProximityOne
• Release data ~ 9/27/17
• National county and higher level geography demographic updates
• Annual estimates & projections; 2010 through 2060
• Updated to reflect/integrate data released through 9/2017 as summarized above.   • See more information.

Notes [goto top]
– BEA – Bureau of Economic Analysis
– BLS – Bureau of Labor Statistics
– Census – Census Bureau
– FFIEC – Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council
– FHFA – Federal Housing Finance Agency
– NCES – National Center for Education Statistics
– NCHS – National Center for Health Statistics

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Housing Value Appreciation by 3-Digit ZIP Code: 2015Q3-2016Q3

.. tools, data and methods to examine housing value appreciation from 2015Q3 to 2016Q3 by 3-digit ZIP code based on the Housing Price Index (HPI).  How is the housing value changing in areas of interest?  How does housing value appreciation compare among a set of ZIP codes? Which ZIP code areas have the highest and lowest housing value appreciation in a state, region custom defined areas of interest? The HPI is calculated in part using home sales price information from Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-acquired mortgages. The U.S. all transactions HPI rose 5.6 percent from the 3rd quarter of 2015 to the 3rd quarter of 2016. Rank, compare, evaluate quarterly or annual housing value change for the approximate 900 3-digit ZIP code areas using the interactive table.

3-Digit ZIP Codes with Highest Housing Value Appreciation
Derived from the interactive table below this table shows the ten 3-digit ZIP codes having the highest housing value appreciation over the year 2015Q3-2016Q3. The areas are ranked on percent HPI change (rightmost column).

Gaining Insights in Housing Prices, Conditions & Markets
.. data, tools and methods to assess characteristics, patterns & trends
.. weekly Housing Data Analytics Lab sessions

Patterns of Housing Value Change by 3-Digit ZIP Code
The following graphic shows housing value appreciation 2015Q3-2016Q3 by 3-digit ZIP code based on the HPI. Use related GIS tools to zoom-in, assign labels, show in context with other geography.

– view developed using CVGIS and related GIS project.
– Click graphic for larger view and details;

Examining Housing Appreciation by 3-Digit ZIP Code
Use the interactive table below to view/rank/compare the non-seasonally adjusted “all transactions” HPI for the most recent 5 quarters for all 3-digit ZIP codes. The ranking table shows the latest quarterly HPI data and preceding quarters for one year earlier. This table will be updated on February 24, 2017, with 4th quarter 2016 data and related prior quarterly estimates and re-computed quarterly change values (last column).

Using the Interactive Table
The following graphic illustrates use of the HPI by 3-digit ZIP code interactive table. HPI data are shown for the quarterly period 2015Q3 through 2016Q3. The state selection below the table has been used to select only California ZIP codes. The Group1 button below the table has been used to select ZIP codes with a 2016Q3 HPI value of 175 ore more. The table is then sorted on the rightmost column. The resulting view shows that among all California 3-digit ZIPs having an HPI of 175 or more in 2016Q3, ZIP code 948/Richmond CA had the highest housing value appreciation — a 10.6% increase over the year.

Use the interactive table to examine states or ZIP code groups of interest.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Housing Price Index by 5-Digit ZIP Code

.. tools to examine housing prices by 5-digit ZIP code and how they are changing .. of the 17,931 5-digit ZIP codes tabulated, 8,074 experienced a decrease in housing value during the period 2010 to 2015. At the same time, 8,672 ZIP code areas experienced an increase in housing value. Housing prices increased for most ZIP codes from 2014 to 2014.  Find out more about housing prices and trends for ZIP codes of interest using tools described here. These data are based on experimental estimates of the Housing Price Index (HPI) by 5-digit ZIP code based in part on home sales price data from Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-acquired mortgages. See more about these data.

• Use the interactive table to view, rank, compare the HPI for all 5-digit ZIP code areas tabulated.
• Use GIS tools described here to develop thematic pattern maps; add your own data & geography, select different HPI measures or criteria; zoom to different geographic extents, label and modify colors as desired.

• Gaining Insights in Housing Prices, Conditions & Markets
  .. Characteristics, Patterns & Trends
  .. join in .. one hour web session — overview & connectivity details

Patterns of Housing Value Change by ZIP Code: 2010-15
The following graphic shows patterns of housing value appreciation by ZIP Code: 2010-15 for the Houston metro (bold brown boundary). The color patterns/intervals are shown in the inset legend. Data are not available, using the criteria applied (2000 base year), for areas not colored In the larger view (click graphic), ZIP codes are labeled with HPI percent change from 2010 to 2015. Click graphic for larger view. Expand browser to full window for best quality view. Use the GIS tools described here to develop thematic pattern maps for a range of data and criteria.

.. view developed using the CV XE GIS software.
.. click map for larger view and details.

Additional views:
• Atlanta area
• New York City area
• Washington, DC area
• Los Angeles area

Examining Recent Trends; Current Estimates & Projections
The interactive table presents annual HPI data 2010 through 2015. A much larger set of these ZIP codes show a negative change between 2010 and 2015 compared to the one year change 2014-2015; The data generally show more ZIP codes experiencing housing value appreciation 2014-2015 compared to the longer period 2010 to 2015. These trends underscore the importance of having more recent data for use in analysis, planning and decision-making. The next update based on transaction data will be May 2017 or later.

ProximityOne uses the HPI transaction data with other data to develop HPI current estimates (2016) and annual projections to 2021 with quarterly updates as a part of the Regional Demographic-Economic Modeling System (RDEMS). Experimental county-up (metro, state, U.S.) and sub-county estimates and projections are planned for the fall 2016 quarterly update. The model based estimates and projections include the number of units by type and value that are added to the housing stock used to compute a variation of the HPI.

Housing Price Index by 5-Digit ZIP Code: 2010-2015
  — Interactive Table
Use the interactive table to examine the Housing Price Index (HPI) by 5-digit ZIP code. The following graphic illustrates use of the table to show the 10 ZIP codes experiencing the largest percentage increase in the HPI from 2014 to 2015. Click graphic for larger view. Examine cities or ZIP code ranges of interest using tools below the table.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Metro Situation & Outlook Reports Updated

Regional Demographic-Economic Modeling System (RDEMS) county table links are now embedded in Metro Situation & Outlook (S&O) Reports. Easily access the RDEMS county demographic-economic tables for metros of interest.

Use this link to access the Metro S&O Reports:
http://proximityone.com/metro_reports.htm
… click link in the “Code” column to access a specific metro.

… selected metros …
Atlanta .. Boston .. Charlotte .. Chicago .. Dallas .. Denver .. Los Angeles .. Honolulu .. Houston .. Miami .. Minneapolis .. New York .. Philadelphia .. Phoenix .. San Diego .. San Francisco .. Seattle .. Washington

All metros are available.

Join in … join us in the Data Analytics Lab sessions to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

2015 Housing Price Appreciation by ZIP Code

.. housing value appreciated by 6.77% in the Houston 3-digit ZIP code 770 from the third quarter 2014 through the third quarter 2015 .. how has housing value appreciated in areas of interest during 2015?  Use the  Housing Price Index (HPI) to examine quarterly or annual housing value appreciation by 3-digit ZIP code, metro or state.  The HPI is calculated in part using home sales price information from Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-acquired mortgages. The U.S. HPI all transactions, non-seasonally adjusted, value increased by 5.5 percent from 2014Q3 to 2015Q3. Use the interactive table in this section to compare and contrast HPI quarterly data for/among all metropolitan statistical areas, states and the U.S. Use the GIS tools and data resources reviewed in the related Web section to visually examine and map these data. Install the GIS project on your computer; add your own data.

Housing Value Appreciation 2014Q3-2015Q3 by 3-Digit ZIP Code
The following graphic shows housing value appreciation 2014Q3-2015Q3 by 3-digit ZIP code based on the HPI. Click graphic for larger view and details.

• View developed using CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
• Interactive table coming in December.
• Click to view Houston metro area .. with counties
.. Houston area view with counties shows mini-profile
for 3-digit ZIP code 770; housing appreciation 6.77% 2014Q3-2015Q3.

Related Housing Market Data & Analytical Resources
The HPI alone provides only partial insights. Evaluation of housing markets, and the regional economy, trends and patterns need to use the HPI in combination with many other measures.
• 2010-2014 annual population estimates: county, metro, state, U.S.
• ACS 2014 1-year demographic-economic tables: county, metro, state, U.S.
• Housing Unit Time Series, Trends & Patterns
• Housing market conditions
• ProximityOne Data Services: access/integrate these with other data
• Each data resource section has associated GIS project & datasets.
• CV XE GIS software: data analytics, maps, geospatial analysis
• See related Interactive Ranking Tables

Using Tools & Data Resources in this Section
Use tools in this section to examine the quarterly HPI from 2014Q3 to 2015Q3. View/rank/compare HPI trends using the interactive table (see below). Use the GIS tools to visually and geospatially analyze patterns and characteristics of interest. Members of the ProximityOne User Group may download the HPI GIS project and use this project and datasets with the CV XE GIS software. Develop variations on maps shown in this section; add your own data.

Metro Housing Market Reports
Register for information on Metro Housing Market Reports. Updated quarterly, these reports provide a comprehensive housing market assessment and outlook for the U.S. by metro with geographic drill-down (tract and ZIP code) within individual metros.

Visual Analysis of 2014Q3-2015Q3 HPI Patterns by Metro
The following graphic shows housing value appreciation 2014Q3-2015Q3 by metro (MSA) based on the HPI. Click graphic for larger view and details.

– view developed using CV XE GIS and related GIS project.
– User Group (join now) members: use HPI GIS project with CV XE GIS.

Interactive Table
The graphic shown below illustrates use of the interactive table to rank metros on the 2014Q3 to 2015Q3 quarter-to-quarter housing appreciation. Two Florida metros, Port St. Lucie and Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL, led the nation.

– click graphic for larger view.

Use the interactive table to examine areas of interest. Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss use of these data using analytical tools and methods applied to your situation.

HPI Updates
The HPI updates quarterly for 3-digit ZIP codes, metropolitan statistical areas and other geography. The next update is scheduled for revisions and the new 2015Q4 on February 25, 2016. See in calendar and set a reminder.

Upcoming Topics
Follow my blog (click button in upper right column) where I will review related market topics, using other data resources and analytical tools available to you at no fee. Upcoming topics include an update on Low & Moderate Income by Census Tract and the Rental Vacancy Rate access, interpretation and role as a leading economic indicator.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.