Category Archives: CVAP

Federal Statistical System Updates January 2018

.. sharing updates on developments about and within the Federal Statistical System (http://proximityone.com/fss.htm). Today I attended a briefing by Nancy Potok, U.S. Chief Statistician (part of OMB OIRA) at the American Statistical Association offices. The session was coordinated by the Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics (COPAFS).

Several topics were discussed, including:

1. Will the Federal government shutdown on January 19, 2018, due to a budget impasse? As of now, there seems to be a 50-50 consensus likelihood.

2. In the spring of 2018, there might be a far-reaching Federal government reorganization plan released by OMB. While there are no details on this, it may well be that certain Federal statistical agencies will be reorganized. This follows more than a year of processing recommendations suggested by individual agencies. Right now, it is not clear if this will be focused on Federal statistical and information-related operations or something broader.

3. It is expected that the 2018 Federal budget, thus including the 13 primary Federal statistical agencies, will be released in early February. Much of the 2019 Federal budget is also completed, though many important details remain.

4. The widely publicized possible addition of a citizenship question to 2020 census questionnaire was discussed. OMB approves the addition or deletion of all questions on Federal government information collection forms. See USATODAY editorial comments today, consistent with my opinion. The merit to the argument to add the citizenship question, if there is one, is that while block group level tabulations of citizenship status from the American Community Survey are available and updated annually, these are subject to sampling error and other errors of estimation, they are not tabulated at the census block level, they are estimates for respondents over a five year period, and they will lag the 2020 census data (first release March 31, 2021) with ACS 2018 estimates (centric to mid-2016) released in December 2020. Key facts are that 1) at there is no Federal government agency requirement for citizenship by block data, 2) a citizenship question definitely imperil the quality of the Census 2020 results, 3) block group level data are sufficient for any reasonable need, 4) the cost of adding the question would be huge in an already underfunded census.

Next Federal Statistical System Updates
The next planned Federal Statistical System update will be in March followed by an update in April. We might move to a recurring monthly update.

Data Analytics Web Sessions
Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Congressional District/State Legislative District Data Analytics Sessions

.. join me in the Congressional District/State Legislative District Data Analytics Sessions .. http://proximityone.com/cdsld/cdsld_vasessions.htm .. face-to-face sessions in the Washington, DC area.

Legislative Districts & Patterns of Neighborhood Economic Prosperity
Census tracts labeled with median household income in context VA House District 11 (bold blue boundary) in Fairfax County, VA. Use the GIS project to examine any state legislative district.

— click for larger view
— view created using CV XE GIS & associated GIS project.

CDSLD Sessions These sessions are focused on tools, data and analytical methods relating to Congressional Districts (115th CDs) and State Legislative Districts (2016 cycle SLDs). We focus on national and Virginia CDs and SLDs in context of the total population, voting population, the Citizen Voting Age Population characteristics and patterns with drill down to census blockblock groupcensus tractelection precinctcity/placeZIP codecountymetro and other geography.

Program details as PDF: http://proximityone.com/cdsld/cdsld_vasessions.pdf.

Anyone may attend. There is no fee. There is no promotional content. Sessions are presented by Warren Glimpse an expert on the topics covered. Learn more about the potentials of using these tools, data and methods. Get answers to your questions to learn more about what data are available, options to access the data, how to integrate these data with other data and insights into how you can use and the data. Attend one or many sessions. While there are core topics, new related material and updates are covered in each session. Join in as a continuing program. Develop and extend data analytics skills.

Patterns of Economic Prosperity by VA Senate District
– Virginia Upper/Senate SLDs by Median Household Income

– click graphic for better quality view; districts labeled with district code

More About Congressional Districts & State Legislative Districts
See the related section for more information:
• 115th Congressional Districts ..
.. Main .. http://proximityone.com/cd115.htm
.. demographic-economic tables http://proximityone.com/cd161dp1.htm
• State Legislative Districts Main .. http://proximityone.com/sld2016.htm
.. with demographic-economic interactive table
• Virginia State Legislative Districts .. http://proximityone.com/sld_va.htm
.. interactive table with incumbency details

CDSLD Data Analytics Web Sessions
Unable to join the face-to-face session? Join me in a Data Analytics Web session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

2016 Presidential Election – Voting & Citizen Voting Age Population by County

In 2015, the U.S. citizen voting age population (CVAP) was 227,019,486 of the total U.S. resident population of 321,418,821 (70.6%). 2016 CVAP data are not yet available. In the 2016 presidential election, 128,298,470 votes were cast — approximately 56% of the citizen voting age population. For individual counties the 2016 presidential election vote ranged from 16% of the CVAP to near 100%. Use the interactive table in this section to examine characteristics of the 2016 presidential election vote and citizen voting age population by county.

This section reviews access to tools to view/analyze characteristics of the U.S. voting population (ages 18 and older and citizen) and participation in the 2016 presidential election. Data are based on Census Bureau annual population estimates, American Community Survey 2010-14 5 year (ACS 2014) Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP) special tabulation and 2016 presidential election results.

Visual Analysis of 2016 Presidential Election Vote by County
The following graphic shows the 2016 presidential vote as a percent of the citizen voting age population.

– Click graphic for larger view.
– View developed with CV XE GIS software.

U.S. Electorate Profile: Characteristics of the Citizen, 18 and Older Population

– based on 2015 American Community Survey 1-Year estimates
*Except where noted, “race” refers to people reporting only one race.
**Hispanic refers to the ethnicity category and may be of any race.
***Households with citizen householders.

U.S. by County Interactive Table Analysis 
Use the interactive table to examine characteristics of the 2016 presidential election vote and citizen voting age population by county. The following graphic illustrates how the table can be used to examine patterns in the Houston, TX metro by county. The Find in CBSA button is used below the table to select only counties in this CBSA/metro. The rightmost column header cell is clicked to rank counties on the voter participation rate for the 2016 presidential election.

– click graphic for larger view.

Try it yourself. Use the table to examine a set of counties in a metro or state of interest.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Congressional District 2015 Demographic-Economic Characteristics

.. congressional districts vary widely in demographic-economic characteristics.  We have new data for 2015 providing insights to characteristics of the 114th Congressional Districts.  This section summarize a few of these characteristics and provides access to a wide range of data that you can use to view, sort, rank, and compare congressional districts using interactive tables.

Patterns of 2015 Educational Attainment
The following graphic shows patterns of educational attainment (percent college graduate) by congressional district in the Los Angeles area. White label shows the congressional district code; yellow label shows percent college graduate. Legend shows color patterns associated with percent college graduate intervals.

– View developed using CV XE GIS software and associated GIS project.

How Congressional Districts Compare
Reference items refer to items/columns shown in tables described below.

.. general demographics: congressional district UT03 has the smallest median age (27.5 years — item D017) and FL11 has the highest median age (53.5 years).

.. social characteristics: congressional district KY05 has the fewest number of people who speak English less than “very well” (2,676 — item S113) and FL27 has the largest number (281,053).

.. economic characteristics: congressional district ND00 has the lowest unemployment rate (2.6% — item E009) and MI13 has the highest unemployment rate (14.6%).

.. housing characteristics: congressional district MI13 has the lowest median housing value ($63,100 — item H089) and CA18 has the highest median housing value ($1,139,900).

Access the Detailed Interactive Tables
Click a link to view more thematic pattern maps and use the interactive tables.
.. General Demographics
.. Social Characteristics
.. Economic Characteristics
.. Housing Characteristics

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Metro Situation & Outlook Reports Updated

Regional Demographic-Economic Modeling System (RDEMS) county table links are now embedded in Metro Situation & Outlook (S&O) Reports. Easily access the RDEMS county demographic-economic tables for metros of interest.

Use this link to access the Metro S&O Reports:
http://proximityone.com/metro_reports.htm
… click link in the “Code” column to access a specific metro.

… selected metros …
Atlanta .. Boston .. Charlotte .. Chicago .. Dallas .. Denver .. Los Angeles .. Honolulu .. Houston .. Miami .. Minneapolis .. New York .. Philadelphia .. Phoenix .. San Diego .. San Francisco .. Seattle .. Washington

All metros are available.

Join in … join us in the Data Analytics Lab sessions to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

Citizen Voting Age Population by Block Group

.. tools and resources to access and analyze citizen voting age population by block group … ideally analysts and stakeholders will examine patterns and characteristics of the citizen voting age population (CVAP) by block group. This is partly because of the extreme variability of CVAP within higher level geography — even at the census tract level. This becomes even more important in more densely populated areas. See about ACS 2014 CVAP block group demographics in this related Web section.

Patterns of ACS 2014 CVAP Population by Block Group
— Houston Area
See legend in lower right of graphic for interval/color correspondence. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

The size, characteristics and distribution of the citizen voting age population by block group is very important.
• Block groups are the most granular geography at which we can study these demographics.
• The size of the citizen voting age population ultimately determines election outcomes.

This section provides thematic pattern map views and analyses of selected metros. These applications can be replicated for any area. They serve as an “analytical basis” that can be augmented with other methods and data (e.g., voter registration, voter propensity, voter turnout, and other election factors) to gain insights into election outcomes under alternative scenarios. Equally important, this information can be used to better equip voters with the potential impact of improved voting activity for their own neighborhood and larger areas (e.g., even congressional districts).

Using these GIS Resources; Obtaining Custom Maps & Analyses
Contact us (or call 888.364.7656) for maps and analyses for areas of interest or to use the integrated, ready-to-use, national scope GIS software, GIS project and datasets. Add your own data; create custom views.

CVAP Block Group Thematic Pattern Map shown below for Selected Areas
• Atlanta
• Chicago
• Los Angeles
• Kansas City
• Washington, DC

Patterns of ACS 2014 CVAP Population by Block Group
— Atlanta Area
See legend in lower right of graphic for interval/color correspondence. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Patterns of ACS 2014 CVAP Population by Block Group
— Chicago Area
See legend in upper right of graphic for interval/color correspondence. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Patterns of ACS 2014 CVAP Population by Block Group
— Los Angeles Area
See legend in upper right of graphic for interval/color correspondence. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Patterns of ACS 2014 CVAP Population by Block Group
— Kansas City Area
See legend in lower right of graphic for interval/color correspondence. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Patterns of ACS 2014 CVAP Population by Block Group
— Washington, DC Area
See legend in lower right of graphic for interval/color correspondence. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

ACS 2014 CVAP Block Group Demographics
For the 217,479 block groups covering the U.S. wall-to-wall, the median citizen population value is 1,165 (291.8 million population) and the median citizen voting age population is 885 (220 million population). The median total population is 1,252 (314 million population). These data are based on the 2014 American Community Survey ACS 2014 CVAP special tabulation completed in early 2016. WHile the focus here is on the total population, the same scope of data is integrated into the shapefiles used here for 13 race/origin population groups. The 13 race/origin groups include:
  • American Indian or Alaska Native Alone
• Asian Alone
• Black Alone
• Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander Alone
• White Alone
• American Indian or Alaska Native and White
• Asian and White
• Black and White
• American Indian or Alaska Native and Black
• Remainder of Two or More Races
• not Hispanic
• Hispanic (of any race)

Related CVAP Sections
Census Tracts; ACS 2009-13 special tabulation
Census Tracts; ACS 2009-13 special tabulation – Hispanic focus
Tracts & Congressional Districts; ACS 2009-13 special tabulation

See this blog post in this full, more detailed Web section.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

How to Assess the Hispanic Vote for the 2016 Elections?

.. a good place to start finding an answer to this question is to use the Hispanic citizen voting age population (CVAP) data. We take a look at using those data here. You can use these same tools and data to examine areas of interest.

This section is focused on using census tract level CVAP data. Census tracts cover the U.S. wall-to-wall with well-defined boundaries and average 4,000 population. The 73,057 census tracts offer a good granularity to examine citizen voting age population for neighborhoods and sections of cities or counties.

While the focus is on the Hispanic population, this population group is comprised of many specific origins (more about Hispanic population by specific origin). And, although this section is focused on the Hispanic population, the CVAP data are tabulated for several race/ethnicity combinations. We could apply these same tools to other race/ethnic combinations.

%Hispanic CVAP by Census Tract; Houston Area
— in context of Texas 114th Congressional District 29 (black boundary)
.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

This map shows how Texas 114th CD 29 has many census tracts that have high concentrations and percent of Hispanic CVAP (see legend at lower right in graphic). It is easy to where the Hispanic vote potential is by tract throughout the central Houston area. Develop thematic map patterns like this for any area of the U.S. Optionally link in voting districts/precincts, state legislative districts among many others. Modify appearance with different colors, interval/color assignments, labels among other settings.

CVAP data are available for several types of geographic areas (states, counties, census tracts, block groups, among others) from the annually updated American Community Survey (ACS) CVAP special tabulation.

How to Assess the Hispanic Vote for the 2016 Elections?
Identifying the census tracts having large numbers of Hispanic CVAP and high percentages, is a step one. But an important one. The next steps involve 1) determining the scope of the registered to vote Hispanic CVAP and 2) the registered to vote Hispanic CVAP turn-out on voting day or by absentee ballot.

Use the Interactive Table to Examine Hispanic CVAP
Use the interactive table in this related section to analyze patterns among census tracts where numbers and percent of Hispanic CVAP are large. Follow these steps to analyze pattern in the central Houston:

• Click ShowAll button below table (resets table).
• Click CountyFIPS button below table.
– refreshes table with only tracts in county 48201 (Harris County/Houston).
• Click Hispanic button below table at far right.
– refreshes table with same rows but now selected columns.
• Click the “CVAP Hispanic” column header twice.
– sorts in descending order; view now appears as:

Tract 48201221300 has the highest Hispanic CVAP (3,405) among all tracts in Harris County (48201). This tract is shown in the map below (see pointer; a zoom in to the map shown above). The tract is labeled with the tract code and the Hispanic CVAP population (3,405).

Examining Texas CD 114 29 CVAP Characteristics
The CV XE GIS Site Analysis tool was used to examine CVAP characteristics for the set of census tracts intersecting with Texas CD 114 29. This is a close but rough approximation as census tracts are not fully coterminous with CD boundaries. In this case there are 136 tracts intersecting with CD 29. Approximately 98% of the composite tracts area is coincident with the CD 29 area.

In the 2014 House election, the total CD 29 votes cast was less than 50,000. The incumbent won the election with 42,000 votes. Meanwhile, the total population for the 136 tract area was 708,709, the total CVAP was 332,060 and the Hispanic CVAP was 202,495 (ACS 2014 estimates). Roughly 150,000 eligible Hispanic CVAP voters did not vote. How to assess the potential impact of a further engaged Hispanic CVAP?

Analyzing Elections/Geographic Areas of Interest
Apply these same methods to any area in the U.S. to determine those census tracts having the highest Hispanic CVAP and the *potential* to have a relatively large Hispanic Vote in the 2016 Elections.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about analyzing characteristics of the citizen voting age population. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.