Examining County Migration: 2010-2016

.. tools and data to examine U.S. by county migration 2010 to 2016 … is the population moving away or into your counties of interest? What are the trends; what is causing the change? What are the characteristics of the population moving in and out? How might this impact your living environment and business?

The total net international migration among all counties 7/1/2010 – 7/1/2016 was 5,641,260, an annual average of 940,432. The sum of net domestic migration among counties is zero by definition, but domestic migration among counties varies radically by size and direction. This section is focused on U.S. by county migration from 2010 to 2016. Migration is one component of change used to develop population estimates. See more about county population estimates and components of change in this related Web section.

Largest 10 Counties Based on 2016 Population
This table shows how domestic migration varies widely among the most populated counties. Use this interactive table to develop your own custom views for counties of interest.

Patterns of Population Change by County, 2010-2016
– the role and impact of migration
The following graphic shows how counties have gained population (blue and green) and lost population (orange and red) during the period 2010 to 2016. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Examining Population Components of Change
– net migration and natural change
Population change can be examined in terms of components of change. There are three components of change: births, deaths, and migration. The change in the population from births and deaths is often combined and referred to as natural increase or natural change. Populations grow or shrink depending on if they gain people faster than they lose them. Examining a county’s unique combination of natural change and migration provides insights into why its population is changing and how quickly the change is occurring.

Using the Interactive Table
– examining migration by county
Use the interactive table to examine characters of counties by states, metro or peer group. The following graphic illustrates use of the interactive table to view net migration for the Houston metro by county. The net migration button was used to select only the net migration columns, FindCBSA button used to show only counties in this metro and the final step was to sort the resulting table on 2016 population. Click graphic for larger view.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Tools to Analyze County Demographic-Economic Characteristics

.. demographic-economic characteristics of counties are essential for business development, market analysis, planning, economic development, program management and general awareness of patterns and trends. This section provides access to data and tools to examine these data for all counties in the U.S. This annual update includes geographic area characteristics based on ACS 2015 data.  The tools/data are organized into four related sections summarized below.

1. General Demographics
View interactive table at http://proximityone.com/us155dp1.htm
Patterns of School Age Population by County
Use GIS tools to visually examine county general demographics as illustrated below. The following view shows patterns of percent population ages 5 to 17 years of age by county — item D001-D004-D018 in the interactive table. Create your own views.

… view developed using the CV XE GIS software.

2. Social Characteristics
View interactive table at http://proximityone.com/us155dp2.htm 
Patterns of Educational Attainment by County
– percent college graduate
Use GIS tools to visually examine county social characteristics as illustrated below. The following view shows patterns of percent college graduate by county — item S067 in the interactive table. Create your own views.

… view developed using the CV XE GIS software.

3. Economic Characteristics
View interactive table at http://proximityone.com/us155dp3.htm 
Patterns of Median Household Income by County
Use GIS tools to visually examine county economic characteristics as illustrated below. The following view shows patterns median household income by county — item E062 in the interactive table. Create your own views.

… view developed using the CV XE GIS software.

4. Housing Characteristics
View interactive table at http://proximityone.com/us155dp4.htm 
Patterns of Median Housing Value by County
Use GIS tools to visually examine county housing characteristics as illustrated below. The following view shows patterns median housing value by county — item E062 in the interactive table. Create your own views.

… view developed using the CV XE GIS software.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Monthly Local Area Employment Situation: 2017

.. tools & data to examine the local area employment situation .. this update on the monthly and over-the-year (Jan 2016-Jan 2017) change in the local area employment situation shows general improvement. Yet many areas continue to face challenges due to both oil prices, the energy situation and other factors.  This section provides access to interactive data and GIS/mapping tools that enable viewing and analysis of the monthly labor market characteristics and trends by county and metro for the U.S. See the related Web section for more detail. The civilian labor force, employment, unemployment and unemployment rate are estimated monthly with only a two month lag between the reference date and the data access date (e.g., March 2017 data are available in May 2017).

Use our new tools to develop your own LAES U.S. by county time series datasets. Link your data with LAES data. Run the application monthly extending/updating your datasets. Optionally use our 6-month ahead employment situation projection feature. See details

Unemployment Rate by County – January 2017
The following graphic shows the unemployment rate for each county.

— view created using CV XE GIS and associated LAES GIS Project
— click graphic for larger showing legend details.

New with this post are the monthly 2016 monthly data on the labor force, employment, unemployment and unemployment rate. Use the interactive table to view/analyze these data; compare annual over the year change, January 2016 to January 2017.

View Labor Market Characteristics section in the Metropolitan Area Situation & Outlook Reports, providing the same scope of data as in the table below integrated with other data. See example for the Dallas, TX MSA.

The LAES data and this section are updated monthly. The LAES data, and their their extension, are part of the ProximityOne Situation & Outlook database and information system. ProximityOne extends the LAES data in several ways including monthly update projections of the employment situation.

Interactive Analysis
The following graphic shows an illustrative view of the interactive LAES table. In January 2017, 149 counties experienced an unemployment rate of 10% or more. The graphic shows counties experienced highest unemployment rates. Use the table to examine characteristics of counties and metros in regions of interest. Click graphic for larger view.

Metro by County; Integrating Total Population
The following graphic shows an illustrative view of the interactive LAES table focused on the Chicago MSA. By using the query tools, view characteristics of metro component counties for any metro. This view shows Chicago metro counties ranked on January 2017 unemployment rate (only 10 of the 14 metro counties shown in this view). Click graphic for larger view.

The above view shows the total population (latest official estimates) as well as employment characteristics.

More About Population Patterns & Trends
U.S. by county population interactive tables & datasets:
  • Population & Components of Change 2010-2016 – new March 2017.
  • Population Projections to 2060 2010-2060 – updated March 2017.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

New Residential Construction by County

.. what’s happening in the north Dallas metro? .. a lot, take a look at the patterns of new residential construction for Collin and Denton counties using data and tools presented in this section. Examine new residential construction, leading economic indicator, for counties and regions of interest to you anywhere in the U.S. Use of the Regional Demographic-Economic Modeling System (RDEMS) to examine patterns of residential construction in context of related wide-ranging, multi-sourced data.

This section provides a summary of new housing units authorized by building permits for new residential construction for each/all counties. Use data analytics tools and data described here analyze these data and related housing issues.
• interactive data analytics – details/access
• use GIS project/datasets – details/access
• access individual county profiles – details/access

Patterns of New Authorized Residential Units by County
The following graphic shows the 2015 per capita value of total units authorized by county. The four largest Texas metros are shown with bold brown boundaries.
See about subject matter included in datasets.

View created with CV XE GIS. Click graphic for larger view.

Additional views with counties labeled with name, 2015 housing units and 2015 total new housing units authorized.
• Charlotte, NC-SC metro by county
• Dallas, TX metro by county
• Houston, TX metro by county

Leading Economic Indicator
Building permit data (housing units authorized by building permits for new residential construction) are economic leading indicators. Investors and housing developers use these data to examine the characteristics and trends in new residential housing development. The short time lag between the data reference date and data access date, 1-2 months, makes this set of indicators important in assessing the current situation and patterns during the past year or more. The national scope coverage and geographic granularity (state, metro, county and city) enable comparison among types of areas and peer groups. Finance and real estate professional and researchers examine building permit patterns to develop strategic insights. Government and policy makers use these data to get a pulse on markets and changing patterns to administer programs and operations. See more about these data below in this section.

New residential construction begins with building permits. Overall U.S. housing starts are approximately 2.5% less than permits issued (22.5% less for multi-family units). Completions are approximately 4% less than starts (7.5% less for multi-family units). During the past year-plus, “residential fixed investment” has been approximately $500 billion and remained steady at 3.1% of real Gross Domestic Product.

Access Individual County Profiles
The following graphic illustrates use of the Regional Demographic-Economic Modeling System (RDEMS) to access the HSG1 Housing Units & New Residential Construction tables for a selected county. Click graphic for larger view.

Mecklenburg County, NC [37119] located in the Charlotte, NC-SC metro

Add a link to your Web page for areas of interest: The URL structure for Mecklenburg County is:
– http://proximityone.com/rdems/1/rdems37119hsg1.htm
– more in general, substitute the county state+county FIPS code (37119 in this case) to access a county of interest.

Using the Interactive Table
The interactive table includes a row for each county. Column structure and content are described below the table.
• Click the StCty link to view the housing unit/new construction profile.
• Select a metro to examine component counties

The following graphic illustrtaes use of the table to examine characteristics of the Dallas metro counties. Click graphic for larger view.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Metro Situation & Outlook Reports Updated

.. how are metros of interest changing? The Metro Situation & Outlook Reports provide the premier integrated, multi-sourced demographic-economic overview for individual metropolitan areas.

Largest 25 Metros Based on 2015 Population
Click graphic for larger view with names. Expand browser window for best view. Label shows metro rank among all 917 metros based on 2015 population.

– View developed using CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

The no fee report for each metro was updated today with the annually updated population and population components of change. Use this interactive table to view, query, rank metros. Examine total population annually 2010 to 2015 and rankings.

Click on a link in the interactive table to view the integrated, multi-sourced demographic-economic Situation & Outlook report for that metro. See this example for the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA. The metro report provides drill-down demographic-economic attributes of metro component areas including counties, cities and school districts.

Join me in a Data Analytics Lab session to discuss more details about accessing and using wide-ranging demographic-economic data and data analytics. Learn more about using these data for areas and applications of interest.

About the Author
— Warren Glimpse is former senior Census Bureau statistician responsible for innovative data access and use operations. He is also the former associate director of the U.S. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards for data access and use. He has more than 20 years of experience in the private sector developing data resources and tools for integration and analysis of geographic, demographic, economic and business data. Contact Warren. Join Warren on LinkedIn.

Outlook2020 Trend Analysis

.. how will the population distribution by age in one county compare to another county, metro or region between 2010 and 2020?  This section reviews how you can perform such analyses using the no fee  Outlook2020 Trend Analysis Windows-based tools.  The Outlook2020 software accesses Web-based Outlook 2020 U.S. by county annual demographic estimates and projections, 2010 through 2020. The Outlook 2020 estimates and projections are part of the Situation & Outlook database and information system.

Analytical Features
Outlook2020 Trend Analysis operations and analytical features include:
  1. display estimates and projections in a grid.
2. show annual age-cohort population data as a percent of total population.
3. save the grid display of population or percent data as an Excel file.
4. select two or more counties and aggregate the data for the composite area.
5. create percentage views and save to Excel just like for a single county.
— features 4 and 5 enable aggregation of data to a metro or region.
6. use a metro listbox to automatically select all metro counties.
7. compare any one area with another area, optionally multi-county.
8. all U.S. counties and all metros are supported.

Start-up View
Start Outlook2020 using the desktop icon. The start-up view appears as shown below. The start-up view illustrates one of the basic features of the application. Johnson County, KS is selected in the lower left listbox. When this selection is run (dbl-click the county name), the total population by age profile is displayed in the grid. The leftmost column shows age group. The remaining columns show annual population estimates and projections to 2020. The year is shown in the top cell of the column.

Click graphic for larger view.

Percent of Total by Year
Click the “Show % of Total” button to view cells as a percent of total population.

Click graphic for larger view.

Select/Sum all Counties in a Metro
In this view, the Phoenix, AZ metro is dbl-clicked in metro listbox. The two component counties are displayed in the lower/county listbox. Multi-selecting both counties, the Run button is clicked. The grid refreshes with the sum of both counties, or the metro total. Perform a similar application for any metro.
Click graphic for larger view.

Saving Grid to Excel File — the Metro (any multi-county region)
In this view, the File>SaveGridAs feature is used to save the current grid cells to an Excel file. The file was saved as c:\outlook2020\phoenix_metro.xls; it will be used in a comparative analysis reviewed below.
Click graphic for larger view.

Grid to Excel File — a Metro Component County
In this view, the File>SaveGridAs feature is used to save the current grid cells to an Excel file. Maricopa County is dbl-clicked; the grid populates with population values for this one county. The file was saved as c:\outlook2020\maricopa.xls; it will be used in a comparative analysis reviewed below.
Click graphic for larger view.

Comparative Analysis
What part of the Phoenix metro is comprised by Maricopa County? The File>Comparative Analysis feature is used to compare Maricopa County (the numerator by cell) to the Phoenix metro (the denominator by cell). The following view shows that Maricopa County comprises 89.7 percent of the Phoenix metro population ages 0-4 years. The percent of this age group accounted for this county as a percent of total metro is slowly declining since 2010. Smaller Pinal County has a relatively increasing rate for this age group.

Click graphic for larger view.

More About Analyses & Insights
Questions that can be answered with this tool …
• what part of the Kansas City metro is comprised by the Missouri counties?
• in total population? as a percent of metro?
• how is this projected to trend 2010 through 2020?
• what do these analyses suggest about trends by age cohort by county for metro?

User Group Access
Members of the ProximityOne User Group may install the Outlook2020 software and perform operations described in this section. Join the User Group now, there is no fee. See Outlook2020 installation notes

Support & DMI Web Sessions
Learn more about using resources described in this section. Join us in a Decision-Making Information Web session. There is no fee for these one-hour Web sessions. Each informal session is focused on a specific topic. The open structure also provides for Q&A and discussion of application issues of interest to participants. We can address specific questions about using metro and county demographic economic data and related applications.

See more about topics covered here in the corresponding Outlook2020 Web section.