USA TODAY County Diversity Analyses: 1960-2060

.. USA TODAY uses ProximityOne county demographic projections to 2060 to analyze patterns of diversity. See main story.  See related Web section.

The USA TODAY Diversity Index shows diversity has surged in the last 50 years and is expected to continue rising. The U.S. index rose from 20 in 1960 to 55 in 2010. Driven by changing attitudes and a record wave of immigration, the pace of change varies widely, sometimes even in adjacent counties.

The diversity index measures the degree of racial and ethnic diversity of the population. The percentage of each race (White, Black, American Indian/Alaska Native, Asian, Native Hawaiian) and Hispanic origin/ethnicity are used to calculate the chance that any two people are from different groups. The index ranges from 0 (no diversity) to 100 (highest diversity).

From USA TODAY main story … “USA TODAY used Census data to calculate the chance that two random people are different by race or ethnicity and came up with a Diversity Index to place every county on a scale of 0 to 100. The nationwide USA TODAY Diversity Index hit 55 in 2010, up sharply from 20 in 1960 and 40 as recently as 1990. In South Orange, the index is 59.

This is just the beginning. Barring catastrophe or a door-slam on immigration, the Diversity Index is on track to top 70 by 2060, according to a USA TODAY analysis of population projections by ProximityOne of Alexandria, Va. That means there will be less than a 1-in-3 chance that the next person you meet will share your race or ethnicity, whatever it is: white, black, American Indian, Asian, Native Hawaiian or Hispanic.

As people from varying cultures and races come together or collide, local governments and other institutions deal with a host of new issues, from conflicts over spending and diverse hiring to violence in the streets and language barriers.”

USA TODAY Analyses of ProximityOne Projections to 2060
• Main story — Second immigration wave lifts diversity to record high
• Interactive mapping: Mapping the USA’s Diversity: 1960-2060
About ProximityOne projections used in the USA TODAY analyses

ProximityOne Neighborhood Diversity Analyses

Mapping Diversity Patterns

Click graphic for larger view.
Credits: Paul Overberg, USA TODAY Amanda Astey, Sarah Frostenson, Anthony DeBarros, Gannett Digital
Source: USA TODAY analysis of data from Census Bureau; NHGIS, University of Minnesota; ProximityOne, Alexandria, VA

Viewing National Diversity Patterns by Race/Origin Charts

Click graphic for larger view.
Credits: Paul Overberg, USA TODAY Amanda Astey, Sarah Frostenson, Anthony DeBarros, Gannett Digital
Source: USA TODAY analysis of data from Census Bureau; NHGIS, University of Minnesota; ProximityOne, Alexandria, VA

Viewing Change by State: 1960 – 2010 – 2060

Click graphic for larger view.
Source: USA TODAY analysis of data from Census Bureau; NHGIS, University of Minnesota; ProximityOne, Alexandria, VA

Get the Diversity Profile for Your County
Visit the main story. Scroll down to the interactive section shown below, illustrating the chart and data for Maricopa County, AZ and Arizona. Key in a county name of interest to view the chart and data for that location.

Maricopa County, AZ Diversity Patterns

Click graphic for larger view.
Credits: Tory Hargo, Paul Overberg, Mitchell Thorson, USA TODAY
Source: USA TODAY analysis of data from Census Bureau; NHGIS, University of Minnesota; ProximityOne, Alexandria, VA

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