Daily Archives: December 26, 2013

Occupation-Industry Employment Projections

Goto ProximityOne   For the United States overall, electrical engineers are projected to grow from 306.1 thousand in 2012 to 318.7 thousand in 2022 — an increase of 12.6 thousand or 4.1%. These “demand-driven” projections, new in December 2013, will different from actual employment experienced in 2022 in any given metro or area. Will metros of interest experience a workforce shortage in key highly skilled occupations? How might this impact the regional economy? Cost of labor?

Electrical engineer projections are shown in the following graphic relative to other engineering occupations ranked on projected employment in 2022.

This section is focused on accessing and using these new, very detailed, occupational and industry employment projections for the United States to 2022.  Gain insights into future employment conditions using these resources. Which occupations will growth fastest?  How will change in employment for an occupation be distributed by industry?

Employment Projections Interactive Table
Use this interactive table (link to separate page) to query, view, rank, compare employment projections.  The table shows employment projections by occupation. Click a link in the table to view the projected employment by industry for the selected occupation.

Fastest Growth Occupations
The following graphic illustrates use of the interactive table.  All detailed occupations are ranked in descending order based on change between 2012 and 2022.  Personal care aides increase from 1,190.6 thousand in 2012 to 1,771.4 thousand in 2022 — an increase of 580.5 thousand or 48.8%
Use tools below the table to perform queries on occupations of interest.  Rank on a column of interest by clicking header cell.  Click a link in the Code column to view the distributions of a selected occupation by detailed industry.

Using these Projections & Alternatives
The employment projections in the table are based on December 2013 projections developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  The projections are provided for 479 detailed occupations and summarized into occupational groups.  These demand-driven projections differ from the ProximityOne Situation & Outlook (S&O) employment projections in several ways. The BLS projections are national level only and provide data for only 2012 and 2022; they are updated every two years.  The S&O projections are available to the county level (less detail), provide annual data to 2030, and are updated quarterly and annually.

The S&O projections are developed using holistic cause and effect simultaneous equation models and reflect expected, projected employment levels.  The BLS projections are based on assumptions about the overall economy growth and do not include extensive cause and effect determinants.  While the BLS projections may provide good demand-based employment conditions, the employment levels may not materialize due to shortages and other factors affecting the supply of labor.

Next Steps
Join us in the next Situation & Outlook quarterly briefing session on January 16, 2014.  We will cover 2030 state and regional demographic-economic patterns and trends based on the latest developments.  See additional details at http://proximityone.com/dmisessions.htm.