Knowing more about what will change when, where and by how much … the U.S. total population increased from Census 2000 281.4 million to Census 2010 308.7 million (9.7 percent). ProximityOne projections show how the U.S. population changes from 2010 to 2060:
• 363.7 million in 2030, a 55.2 million increase from 2010 to 2030 (17.9%)
• 417.7 million in 2060, a 109.2 million increase from 2010 to 2060 (35.4%)
How will population change manifest itself by state, metro, region, county and city? By age and household composition? Use the demographic estimates and projections interactive table to view/rank/compare population change from 2010 to 2060 for the U.S. overall, states, metros and counties. Analyze area patterns and trends and assess how areas of interest relate to each another.
Estimates and projections shown in the table below are a part of a broader set of annually updated current demographic-economic estimates and projections developed by ProximityOne. The estimates and projections are developed using models that knit together a mix of historical birth, death, migration, economic and other data and assumptions.
The following graphic shows the largest states by projected 2030 population and population change. Use the separate interactive table to develop this view and examine patterns among other states. This view was developed by clicking the “View 2010-2020-2030 Change” button below the table and then clicking the Population 7/1/30 column header cell to rank the table on this column in descending order. Try this operation yourself using the interactive table.
Differences between ProximityOne and Census Bureau Projections
The Census Bureau only develops population projections for the U.S. as a whole; there are no post Census 2010 Census-sourced state level projections. For both current estimates and projections, the Census Bureau uses a “top-down” approach. For example, Census will release the 2013 U.S. national estimates in late December 2013. The corresponding 2013 state and county estimates will be released in early to mid-2014, the state estimates controlled to the U.S. estimates and the county estimates controlled to the state estimates. The most forward looking Census-sourced state and county population data will be for 2013. Development of Census-sourced population estimates, and the national level population projections use a demographic-only model; there is no direct integration of the economy and business/economic factors.
In contrast, the ProximityOne projections are developed with a “bottom-up” methodology using cause and effect simultaneous equation models. Projections are first developed using county-level demographic-economic models. County level projections are developed by single year of age by gender by race/origin and then aggregated to state and national levels. The entire projection period extends annually to 2060. View Broward County, FL projections showing more detail. See complete dataset example for Sedgwick County (Wichita), Kansas (XLS). The holistic modeling does not separate the process of developing current estimates versus projections; the cause and effect relationship is specified over time.
Examining Impact of Demographic Change
An important role for population projections in context of decision-making information is to help us better anticipate where, when and how change will take place — and how it might impact market or service areas and business operations. To best examine impact analyses, the geographic focus needs to be on the relevant market or service area (e.g., city, group of counties, etc.) geography. Projections change over time; use of alternative scenario projections is essential. The ideal approach to impact analysis — how will my markets be impacted in 2030? — is best achieved through through fully integrated cause and effect models and not using only separately developed demographic-economic estimates and projections. Users of the Situation & Outlook modeling tools can perform fully integrated impact analyses under alternative scenarios.
Join us in the next Situation & Outlook quarterly briefing session on January 16, 2014. We will cover 2030 state and regional demographic-economic patterns and trends based on the latest developments. See additional details at http://proximityone.com/dmisessions.htm.