Examining housing value appreciation … the Housing Price Index (HPI) provides a measure to examine/analyze housing price levels and variations among metros and states. The HPI, calculated using home sales price information from Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-acquired mortgages, continued upward momentum in U.S. Housing prices remained strong in the third quarter 2013, as prices rose 2.0 percent from the previous quarter. This is the ninth consecutive quarterly price increase in the purchase-only, seasonally adjusted index. It marks the first time since 2009 that the national house price level is higher than it was five years ago. This section reviews use of HPI data and analytical tools to examine housing price patterns and trends among metros and states.
The HPI alone provides only partial insights — based on this one measure. Evaluation of housing markets, and the regional economy, trends and patterns need to use the HPI in combination with many other measures. Situation & Outlook reports integrate HPI data with other demographic-economic measures.
Interactive Trend Analysis: Metros & States
Use this interactive table to examine the HPI quarter to quarter over the past year by state and metro. The ranking table provides an easy way to rank/compare housing prices for a single metro area or a group of metros. The graphic presented below shows the top-ranked metros based on HPI percent change from 2012Q3 to 2013Q3. Optionally rank on any of the quarter-to-quarter changes. Note that seven of the top ten metros (rate of appreciation over past year) are in California. Using the interactive table, scroll down using the right scroll bar to view how other metros rank. Or, double-click the rightmost column to rank in descending order to view metros experiencing the highest rates of decline.
The above graphic illustrates selecting all metros. Using tools below the interactive table, alternatively select all metros in only one state, all states and no metros or other combinations.
Thematic Pattern Maps
ProximityOne User Group members (join now, no fee) may download the all U.S. metro shapefile with all items shown in the interactive table integrated into the shapefile, ready to use. Create thematic maps using HPI items with pattern settings of interest. The map view presented above was developed using this shapefile with integrated HPI data.
Alternative Methods of Estimating Housing Value Appreciation
The HPI is one indicator of measuring home value appreciation at the metro or state level. See the FHFA home value calculator that illustrates how the HPI can be used to compute estimated value now or at a different point in time. This tool illustrates the concept but is fraught with problems of real usability. Using differently sourced data, ProximityOne computes housing value appreciation indexes at the ZIP Code area, census tract and higher level geography.
Watching HPI Patterns
This post will be updated in late February 2014, with release of the 2013 fourth quarter HPI.